Monthly Archives: May 2009

ICC T20 World Cup Prediction Watch

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Soulberry at The Cricket Watcher’s Journal:

England isn’t to be underestimated at home – they are lions and in their den. I’m hoping they do well this time for then we could all see them finally express themselves honestly and freely. Being bridesmaids for ever has soured them off limited overs cricket and those who have won them in the past. They are well positioned to win this one, and if they do, we all may heave a collective sigh of relief for it is possible they may have something good to say about limited overs after all.

We will keep looking out for more of this. This is just for starters.

The New Cricinfo is Live

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Here you go:

cricinfo

Video seems to be the big thing. Not too many ads on the home page (most below the fold). More emphasis on the ESPN brand at various places. News, Scores, Fixtures – easily accessible. The drop-down menu is pretty comprehensive. They threw the kitchen sink at it and it works without looking cluttered.

The New Cricinfo

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Will Luke at Cricinfo and The Corridor points out Sambit Bal’s pre-announcement of the new Cricinfo page. Will says,

In my experience, redesigns provoke an equal mix of pleasant surprise and vitriolic hatred. But from what I’ve seen, I think it’s pretty sweet.

“Elegant” instead of “sweet” is the word I would use. The new design looks much better, but I suppose I will miss the soon-to-be-classic Cricinfo look mostly for reasons of nostalgia. Also perhaps the fact that Cricinfo will now look similar to the thousands of other wanna-be cricket sites, though none of the others can claim its authority.

In all senses of the word, Cricinfo is the Google of the cricket world. A few weeks ago, there was a small hiccup when Cricinfo went down for a few minutes and the real-time chatter on Twitter just erupted. It was as if some earthquake struck the fans inhabiting the cricket world. That Cricinfo has been able to maintain its dominance in the age of cricket cable and some much competition is amazing.

Hopefully, we will get to see the new Cricinfo site very soon.

ICC Twenty20 World Cup Predictions – Take 2

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Q from WellPitched pointed out that contrary to logic, the arrangement of teams in the second round groups were not based on performance in the first round, but based on the seedings which depend on the performance of the teams in the last World Cup. It seems that this is done to ensure that there is some predictability about which teams will play at different venues and on what days, so that fans can book their travel tickets and hotel rooms!

This is mind-boggling. I fail to find the right adjectives to blast the ICC for the kind of nonsense that you will never see in any other sport. Can you imagine the FIFA World Cup saying, “Don’t worry about the first round results. Argentina will face Brazil in the 2nd round as long as they qualify.” The most egregious part of this is that as long as the ICC was making up rules as they went, why didn’t they use a better seeding system so that the best teams would face off in the semis instead of the second round groups.

To understand the depths, consider this. If India, England, Australia and South Africa top their group by winning their matches, they will end up in the same second round group. The others with one win each will be in the other. But that’s not all.

Let’s assume that England loses to all the other teams in its group. India beats South Africa which beats Australia which beats India. And say India and Australia reach the semis by a better NRR. In the other group, Pakistan beats everyone, and the others share their wins and one team (say New Zealand) qualifies by a better NRR.

So, you will have South Africa not reaching the semis despite four wins and New Zealand reaching the semis with just two victories under its belt. In fact, the Kiwis could win the tournament and still not overcome South Africa’s record.

This means we will have to redo the predictions from the 2nd round onwards:

Group E (India, England, Australia, South Africa): India has a good record against the other teams – England 1-0, Australia 2-1 and South Africa 2-0. So India qualifies. England have lost to both Australia 1-2 and South Africa 0-1. So England are out. Australia have a 3-3 record against South Africa. But surprise, South Africa has a better Twenty20 record than Australia. So South Africa goes through as the second team.

Group F (Ireland, Pakistan, West Indies, New Zealand): Once again, let’s eliminate Ireland. Pakistan 1-0 against New Zealand. Kiwis 1-0 (with two Tied matches) against the West Indians. NZ won one tied match via the bowl-out, but WI took revenge later winning the next tied match via the Super Over. Pakistan has not played against the West Indies, but considering the order of victories, we can assume that Pakistan and New Zealand will qualify from the group.

Thus we get

Semifinal (India v New Zealand): India meet their Waterloo. They have not won a single match in three encounters against the Kiwis. New Zealand reach the finals.

Semifinal (Pakistan v South Africa): Sorry, Pakistan. With your previous loss against South Africa, you are exiting the tournament along with India. [Sorry I made a mistake using Australia instead of South Africa when I posted originally.]

And so finally, the final:

Final (South Africa v New Zealand): South Africa have a 2-1 record against New Zealand. So we appoint them the champions of ICC Twenty20 World Cup 2009.

What a difference the seedings make. We suddenly have a new winner. The biggest point is how important it is for India to avoid a match with New Zealand.

ICC Twenty20 World Cup Predictions

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So, here is the problem as I understand it. The ICC T20 World Cup schedule is based on the performance of the teams in the last World Cup. This, to be very charitable, is nuts. One swallow does not a summer make. One drop of water does not a shower make and so forth. You have to also consider the accomplishments of the teams in other Twenty20 matches. We also have to take a look at how each team fared against the others. [Statutory tiny print warning: Past performance is not an indicator of future results.]

With reference to the Twenty20 results of each country and applying that to the groups:

Group A (Bangladesh, India, Ireland): None of these teams have ever played a Twenty20 match against each other. So we have to revert to their overall T20 performance. Ireland have never lost a T20 match, but they have only played against non-Test nations. India is at a success percentage of 62.5% and Bangladesh at 30%. Bangladesh has three T20 victories (WI, Zimbabwe, Kenya), not awe-inspiring. So the facts are not helpful. I am going to take a leap of faith and say that Bangladesh will probably suffer because of the conditions. So India and Ireland will qualify from the group.

Group B (England, Netherlands, Pakistan): Pakistan has beaten England in their sole match to date. Netherlands have not played against either team. Let it call it Pakistan followed by England.

Group C (Australia, Sri Lanka, West Indies): Australia have played one match each against Sri Lanka and West Indies. They beat the Lankans, but lost to the Windies. Sri Lanka have never played against West Indies, but they have a better overall T20 success rate. Using the Transitive Property, let us go crazy and assume that since the Windies are one up against Australia, they will also beat the Lankans. So strangely, we get West Indies topping the group followed by Australia. (OK, this is madness, but there is a method to the madness)

Group D (New Zealand, Scotland, South Africa): South Africa will top the group as they have beat NZ in two of their three outings. Scotland have only won two Twenty20 matches ever, so the Saffers will qualify followed by the Kiwis.

And THAT leads us to:

Group E (India, England, West Indies, South Africa): India’s record against the other teams is England 1-0, West Indies 0-0 (never played), and South Africa 2-0. With a better overall T20 record, India heads the group. England’s record is West Indies 1-2 and South Africa 0-1. So England is out. West Indies v South Africa 1-2 record and the South Africans follow India into the semis.

Group F (Ireland, Pakistan, Australia, New Zealand): Lets eliminate Ireland right away for obvious reasons. Pakistan has a 2-0 record against Australia and a 1-0 record against New Zealand. Pakistan is through as the leaders. Australia have thrashed the Kiwis in all their three matches. So the Aussies get the last spot.

Which gets us to:

Semifinal (India v Australia): Repeat of the previous World Cup semis. India has a 2-1 record against Australia. So they win.

Semifinal (Pakistan v South Africa): Using our algorithm, this is where Pakistan’s hopes end. They lost their only previous game against South Africa. So South Africa go to the semis.

The final will be between India and South Africa. As we saw before, South Africa have not won a match against India. So India will be the Twenty20 champions this year!

Nothing very surprising except for the Ireland and West Indies stuff. But that will end by the time we reach the semis. The schedule will look as follows:

June 2009
S M T W T F S
.
 
 
 		 .
 
 
 		 .
 
 
 		 .
 
 
 		 .
 
 
 		 5
EN v NL
 
 		 6
NZ v SC
AU v WI
BD v IN
7
SC v SA
EN v PK		 8
BD v IR
AU v SL		 9
NL v PK
NZ v SA		 10
SL v WI
IN v IR		 11
SA v IR
EN v NZ		 12
PK v AU
IN v WI		 13
WI v NZ
SA v PK
14
IR v AU
IN v EN		 15
EN v WI
PK v IR		 16
SA v AU
NZ v IN		 17
Rest Day
 		 18
-
IN v AU		 19
-
PK v SA		 20
Rest Day
 
21
-
IN v SA		 .
 		 .
 		 .
 		 .
 		 .
 		 .
 

Links of the Day

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Sydney Morning Herald on Afghanistan getting its cricket board. (via Amy)

Caption needed for this photo of M S Dhoni.

Silly M(a)idon still thinking about IPL. I too wonder when Tendulkar will finally say “no” to captaining any team.

Homer on why the cap for foreign players in the IPL is a good thing.

Oldie, but goldie despite the cavalier attitude towards facts about timeless Tests: Just another Silly Point on why Twenty20 & IPL deserve their place in the cricket world.

How Many Tests Should Teams Play?

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This is for David Barry of Pappu’s Plane who wrote on my previous post on T20 vs Test cricket that given my suggestion for reducing Tests in a series based on whitewashes, Australia would play many one-off and two-Test series. So I did some analysis on this and came up with some figures about what it would look like.

If applied to its logical conclusion, Australia would only play one-off Tests against most countries. The problem with one-off Tests is that it doesn’t give room for expansion. A win in a one-off Test is a whitewash by definition. So we need a minimum of two Tests to determine if they can be increased in the future to three. Expansion can be stopped at five Tests. I briefly tinkered with the idea of a minimum of 3 home Tests if the home team is doing the whitewashing, but then decided to keep it consistent.

Thus, a 5-0 series gets changed to 4-Test series, 4-0 to three Tests, 3-0 and below to two Tests. A 1-1 series gets upgraded to a 3-Test series, 2-1 to a four-Test series and a 2-2 to a 4-Test series. I have used the last known series between the two countries as a reference. I am omitting Bangladesh as I feel they should only play one-off Tests.

So here is what we get. The first number is the home Tests against a particular team and the second number is the away Tests.

             AUS   SAF   IND   ENG   PAK   SRL   NZL   WIN   Total
Australia     .    4,4   4,4   4,5   2,2   2,2   2,3   2,3   20,23
S. Africa    4,4    .    4,3   5,4   4,2   2,2   2,3   4,4   25,22
India        4,4   3,4    .    2,3   3,3   3,4   2,3   3,4   20,25
England      5,4   4,5   3,2    .    4,3   3,3   3,4   4,4   26,25
Pakistan     2,2   2,4   3,3   3,4    .    3,2   2,2   3,3   18,20
S. Lanka     2,2   2,2   4,3   3,3   2,3    .    2,3   2,3   17,19
N. Zealand   3,2   3,2   3,2   4,3   2,2   3,2    .    2,2   20,15
W. Indies    3,2   4,4   4,3   4,4   3,3   3,2   2,2    .    23,20

England gets to play the most Tests at home as well as away. New Zealand ends up with the fewest Tests partly because they have been playing short series. Australia end up playing the same number of Tests as West Indies, but they do have long series against the next three countries (SA, India and England).

OK, having gone to all this trouble, let me say that practically, none of this will work because the system can be gamed. If a country is interested in playing more Tests against a country for whatever reason (especially financial), all they have to do is keep the series close and they gain an extra Test. You may see India suddenly playing 5 Tests against every country because the India TV market is so lucrative.

The other problem is that the series margins are not necessarily a good indicator of the performance of the teams in a series. For example, Sri Lanka lost 0-2 in Australia, but the second match showed a great fightback by the Sri Lankans in the final innings. So they did better than the final scoreline indicates. You would practically need a more detailed analysis of the performance of a team.

Ultimately, the whole point is whether the cricket is interesting or not. And that can be measured by attendance, TV ratings and perhaps polls. If the ratings for England taking the Ashes 5-0 (!) is through the roof, who am I to complain? Keep it coming, that is what I would say.

Tell Me I am Wrong about BYB commentary

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I used to think that doing the ball-by-ball commentary on Cricinfo was the best job in the world. You are getting paid to watch the match and write about it. If blogging about cricket could be so much fun, think about doing it for 8 hours straight. The other jobs on Cricinfo like stats analyst and question-answer personnel were also cool, but the BYB commentary is a mindless job. What could be more simple?

So I tried my hand at live-blogging sometime back and, believe me when I say this, it is really hard at times to do it, especially when nothing much is happening. And I was doing it by each over instead of each ball. The guys at Cricinfo write material like the following all day long:

DOT BALL, left alone outside off

DOT BALL, thinks about it and lets it go through to the keeper

DOT BALL, defends it back to the bowler

For God’s sakes, writing that kind of stuff all day long will make you go crazy. I secretly suspect the Cricinfo guys have some macros set up so that when you press ‘X’, it inserts the DOT BALL left alone stuff and when you hit ‘$’, it says SIX or something of the sort.

But that is minor stuff. The bigger problem is that you want to watch the match in peace instead of constantly being distracted by having to write stuff every single ball. Sometimes, you just want to enjoy a great innings or some spectacular bowling. Yes, you will always have great things to yell about when a yorker uproots a stump or a batsman hits several consecutive boundaries.

So you want to talk about the *match* and not about each individual ball. You want to communicate as and when things are happening out there. But I could be wrong about this. What is your impression of having to write about every single ball of a match?

Retirement Woes

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Ducking Beamer’s take on retirement had me looking back at my predictions for the retirements from Test cricket for this year. Here is a quick revisit:

  • Much depends on this year’s Ashes and the main protagonists are the two Mikes (Vaughan and Hussey). If England and Ravi Bopara perform well, that could be curtains for Michael Vaughan. If Australia lose and Mike Hussey is not in good form, that could mean big trouble for him. And talking of Mike Hussey, why are people still calling him Mr. Cricket? He had a good couple of seasons before the Law of Averages struck him down.

  • Ntini had an average series and Boucher a below-average one against Australia. We will see. Don’t think Kallis is going anywhere just yet.

  • Dravid was back in form in New Zealand. So that will have to wait too.

  • I still think Muttiah Muralitharan may retire this year, primarily because there are not many more milestones in front of him. And Sri Lanka is not playing too many Tests this year anyway.

Links of the Day

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Cricket UA with cricket widows.

Jrod (Cricket with Balls) on the different reasons why England and Australia cannot win the Ashes. Is there a third team playing that I didn’t know about?

Q at Well Pitched on why Pakistan are the favorites for this year’s ICC World Cup Twenty20. (You can find the tournament schedule here)

Sam at Arm Ball with his starting Indian XI for the T20 World Cup.

Colin Mehigan on Cricket in the United States and its relationship to baseball.