Punjab Lose a Crucial Match, Bangalore Still Hoping Against Hope

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Kolkata almost wrecked Bangalore’s slim chances of reaching the semi-finals when they posted a huge total of 173, but a stunning counter-attack by Ross Taylor ensured that Kolkata will end this IPL at the bottom of the Points Table. Even if they win their remaining matches, they will not overtake any other team. A fitting end to the most dysfunctional team in the tournament. They have nothing more to look forward, except stage an upset in one of their three remaining matches and cause a commotion among the other teams.

We talked yesterday about how important it was for Punjab to win the match against Mumbai, but apparently the Kings XI batsmen did not pay attention. After a great start by Sohal, they lost wickets at regular intervals and poked their way to 119. They made the same score against Mumbai last time around and won by 3 runs, but history would not repeat itself this time as Dwayne Bravo and Sachin Tendulkar took them to victory with almost four overs to spare.

A look at the Projections:

Team        M-W-D-L   P   P/M   FRR   ARR    NRR  Prob  Final Chances

Delhi       9-7-0-2  14  1.56  7.82  7.50   0.33  4.98  18.98  97.81%
Chennai    10-6-1-3  13  1.30  8.52  7.30   1.22  4.91  17.91  92.83%
Deccan     10-6-0-4  12  1.20  7.75  7.37   0.38  4.35  16.35  84.48%
Mumbai     11-5-1-5  11  1.00  7.34  6.80   0.54  2.14  13.14  48.88%

Rajasthan  11-5-1-5  11  1.00  6.76  7.13  -0.37  3.17  14.17  37.60%
Bangalore  11-5-0-6  10  0.91  7.16  7.53  -0.36  1.94  11.94  21.33%
Punjab     11-5-0-6  10  0.91  7.48  8.05  -0.57  1.94  11.94  17.07%
Kolkata    11-1-1-9   3  0.27  6.90  7.94  -1.04  2.50   5.50   0.00%

Some commentators will point out that only 4 points separate the top seven teams and hence anyone can still qualify. Let us put that to rest. Delhi, Chennai and Deccan are very well-positioned to reach the semis. The latter two each have a game against Kolkata and they should nail that. Then we come to the four teams at 11 and 10 points respectively. Since they have each played 11 games, it does seem like they have an equal chance of making the semis. Unfortunately, that is not the case.

First problem is that both Bangalore and Punjab have their 3 remaining matches against the group leaders Delhi, Deccan and Chennai. It is unlikely that they will win any of those matches. Maybe they may pull off 1-2 matches together tops. That means that the Top three teams are likely to qualify, leaving only one single spot.

Now Mumbai and Rajasthan have a game against each other. The winner reaches 13 points. This means Punjab & Bangalore need 2 more wins to overtake them. If that winner snatches another victory, Punjab & Bangalore have to win all their remaining matches – an incredibly difficult proposition. This is likely to be the case if Rajasthan beats Mumbai because Rajasthan has another match against Kolkata that they are sure to win.

The only way Punjab and Bangalore can win is for Mumbai to beat Rajasthan and then lose its remaining matches. Rajasthan will definitely beat Kolkata, so they need Delhi to beat Rajasthan. Punjab and Bangalore then need to win 2 of their 3 remaining games. That is why their chances of qualifying are at 21% and 17% respectively.

What about Net Run Rate? It will only decide tied points between Mumbai and Rajasthan (odd number of points), and between Punjab and Bangalore (even points). Mumbai has a big advantage over Rajasthan that will not be easy for Rajasthan to overcome in 3 matches. Bangalore and Punjab are closer, so each has to be careful about scoring runs faster.

Among all these teams, Rajasthan has the simplest route to the semi-finals. They need to beat Mumbai on Thursday and hold their match against Kolkata. Then they just need each of Mumbai, Punjab & Bangalore to lose one more match and they are through.

A look at the next 3 matches:

  • Deccan v Delhi: Delhi will want to keep winning to sustain the momentum and ensure that they take the top spot, which will help them take on a weaker opponent in the semi-finals. Deccan can afford to lose as long as they win their next match against Kolkata.
  • Bangalore v Chennai: Chennai has room for error. Bangalore does not. A defeat will practically end Bangalore’s hopes.
  • Mumbai v Rajasthan: This is the biggie. Whoever wins is most likely to reach the semis. Mumbai can win this and lose the rest and still edge Rajasthan out on NRR. Rajasthan wins this and beats Kolkata – they are almost there.

Don’t miss the Mumbai-Rajasthan clash, because that is the most decisive match of the rest of the IPL.

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