Achettup and Q beat me to the qualification analysis for what Pakistan need to do to reach the semis. I will try to add a little more context and explanation to the whole situation.
So, why is everyone saying that England is through to the semis? Won’t the last match affect England’s chances?
To understand this, let us take a look at the current Points Table
Team M-W-T-L Pts NRR England 2-1-0-1 2 1.18 Netherlands 1-1-0-0 2 0.05 Pakistan 1-0-0-1 0 -2.40
There is only one match left: Pakistan v Netherlands. If Pakistan lose the match, they have zero points and are out of the tournament. If Pakistan win, all teams will be on 2 points. However Netherlands’ NRR will decline and will be below England. So England will at least be No. 2. The question is whether Pakistan can improve their NRR to go above Netherlands.
Why does Pakistan need to win by at least 25 runs even though they lost to England by 48 runs?
Because they don’t need to overtake England’s NRR. They only need to overtake Netherlands. And because they are both playing the same game, Netherland’s NRR will decline at the same time as Pakistan’s NRR increases because of a greater margin of Pakistan’s victory. So even if Pakistan’s NRR stays negative, it is okay as long as they can overtake Netherland’s NRR.
Here is the equation for those mathematically inclined. In case Pakistan bats first and then beats Netherlands, it would mean that 20 overs would be counted against both teams. Being bowled out is considered playing out 20 overs. Overs are only not counted if a team wins batting second with balls remaining. Let us assume Pakistan makes “P” runs and Netherlands makes “N” runs
Pakistan Net Run Rate, PNRR = (137 + P – (185 + N)) / 40
Netherlands Net Run Rate, NNRR = (163 + N – (162 + P)) /40
We need PNRR > NNRR
Solving, we get: P > N + 24.5
Since there are no fractional runs (!), Pakistan has to score at least 25 runs.
I want a graph of how quickly Pakistan has to score the runs, not a graph of the required run rate.
Here you go. Netherlands’ target is the X-axis and the overs is displayed on the Y-axis.
Can I have the data used to populate the graph?
Here it is, the first column being the Netherlands score and the second being the maximum number of overs that Pakistan should bat.
Neth Overs
0 14.3 10 14.5 20 15.0 30 15.2 40 15.3 50 15.4 60 15.5 70 16.0 80 16.1 90 16.2 100 16.3 110 16.4 120 16.4 130 16.5 140 17.0 150 17.0 160 17.1 170 17.1 180 17.2 190 17.2 200 17.2 210 17.3 220 17.3 230 17.4 240 17.4 250 17.4
But I want to know what if Netherlands score 133 runs?
In any case, use the following equation to derive the number of overs beyond which Pakistan will be out of the tournament if they don’t hit the target. That value is equal to (40 (301 + 2N) / (348 + 2N)) – 20, where N is the number of runs Netherlands scored.
You can derive it from using PNRR > NNRR with
PNRR = ((137 + P)/(20 + x)) – ((185 + N) / 40)
NNRR = ((163 + N) / 40) – ((162 + P) / (20 + x)
where “x” is the number of overs. Now substitute P = N + 1 (one more than the Netherland’s score)
Will Pakistan achieve the target given all we know?
Netherlands’ better bet would be to bat second, given their performance against England. Remember that England had reached 100 for no loss before Netherlands pulled them back. So they would be better chasing. Pakistan would also like to be chasing since they know what they have to achieve. Considering that, the toss is extremely crucial. At this moment, I think both captains will choose to field first, but you never know based on the pitch and weather conditions.
All said and done, Pakistan have the better team man-to-man. They should be able to back themselves to win this match and by the required margin, regardless of whether they bat or bowl first.
Thanks Krishna!
I knew I was going to be wrong when I thought Pak had to beat N by 49.
This is good info.
Would be interesting if AUS beat SL tomorrow. Then more NRR calc!
The Australia-SL NRR calc will be even more interesting because Australia lost pretty hard in their first match. So they have to thrash SL, otherwise both WI can allow SL to qualify without affecting their chances.
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Great details, wonderful!
So now there is a realistic chance of Netherlands going to GroupE in next round. Margin of 25 is pretty big, as far as T20 is concerned.
But, Pak is capable of meeting the targets. Exciting match on hands!
Another complicating factor is rain, though. In case of a truncated match, it would become much more difficult for Pakistan to achieve the NRR equation. The victory margin of 25 runs would remain the same, but it will have to be achieved in reduced overs.
And in case of a washout, of course, Netherlands go through.
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Ya, great work man!
I am frm pakistan and as a pakistani fan it was a dissapointing match against england. So, the match against N is very important for us, but considering Pakistan’s bad luck, I am afraid that the rain could spoil the game.
Pakistan have world class players who can win the matches sigle handedly. Pakistan has the best winning ratio in T20 but the only problem is consistency, but the 2 defeats in warm up matches and the defeat against england will you fancy the pakistan’s chances?
regards
Adnan
Pakistan has played against top guns South Africa and India in the warmups and then against a resurgent England. They have the skills to beat Netherlands, but they may be in for a tough fight. The Dutch can smell the Super Eights and they won’t let go easily.
I think Pakistan can manage to meet those targets but the question is do they deserve to break some Dutch hearts?
They’ve been very disappointing so far.
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How pakistan can cross england what is formula of calculting this?as u tell 25 runs for holland. but what about england?
Usman, it doesn’t matter whether Pakistan get past England’s net run rate or not because it makes no difference to their Super 8 Pools.. if Pakistan qualify they will as B1 because of their pre-tournament seedings.
They just have to get past netherland’s run rate to qualify.
But since u asked, to get past England’s net run rate, Pak will have to beat the Dutch by 96 runs or more..
Manish, England are in Group E.. if the Dutch qualify they will be in Group F cos they will be replacing Pakistan.
Yes, if the Dutch qualify, they will join Ireland in Group F. The other two sides could be West Indies and New Zealand.
i kown that the pakistan has to win the 2nd match oficc t20
the pakistan will win inshallah
Windies will be in F if they get there instead of SL.. if Australia lose today, Windies will be in E and Lanka in F.
Thank you for the analysis. Its an easy ask for Pakistan who are usually surprising and come back out of the blue. However, rain may spoil it, thats the only factor i see going against Pakistan.
i am usman from pakistan.I have an request to pakistanies that donot blame your team.Its a game never minds either win or either lose.And please pray for pakistan inshallah we got it this time.
How pakistan can cross england what is formula of calculting this?as u tell 25 runs for holland. but what about england?
Usman, to overtake England, Pakistan need to beat Netherlands by 95 runs if Pakistan bat first. Not very likely, I would say.
But it doesn’t matter. Pakistan will still go to Group F.
Usman, it doesn’t make a difference if our run rate goes above england’s or not.. we just have to take it over netherlands.
Don’t forget the weather guys. It’s expected to rain tomorrow. Let’s play for a full match and hopefully a big win for Pakistan which will take them to the second round. Although the performance of Pakistanis was very disappointing, but I’ve still not lost hope. InshAllah Pakistan will win this world cup.
ohh nice ,,
thnx 4 sharing…
Ohhh…Is it!!!
Thats as illogical as it can be. Even going by the seedings logic, if Eng and Ned qualify, Eng should be B1 and Ned should be B2. But strange are the ways ICC sees these things.@Krishna
@Manish
@Manish – it is completely illogical but that is how it works.. Cos Pakistan are seeded B1 and England B2.. Netherlands qualify instead of Pakistan hence become B1.. The seedings are based on 2007 20-20 WC performance.
im syed junaid from india .no doubt about pakistan team ,they can easily beat dutch .they have great hitter like MISBAH AFRIDI AKMAL & MALIK they all are aggresive players if they start playing then nobody can stop him and im sure that pakistan will win the game INSHA ALLAH.
So, it means Group E and F are almost decided:
E: Ind, Eng, WI, SA
F: Ire, Pak/Ned, SL, NZ
Q/Krishna – So how will Semifinal lineups be decided – will it entirely be based on the performances in Super 8s or will seedings have a role to play there as well?
great analysis …. Keep it up.
//In any case, use the following equation to derive the number of overs beyond which Pakistan will be out of the tournament if they don’t hit the target. That value is equal to (40 (301 + 2N) / (348 + 2N)) – 20, where N is the number of runs Netherlands scored.
You can derive it from using PNRR > NNRR with
PNRR = ((137 + P)/(20 + x)) – ((185 + N) / 40)
NNRR = ((163 + N) / 40) – ((162 + P) / (20 + x)
where “x” is the number of overs. Now substitute P = N + 1 (one more than the Netherland’s score)//
A match ends when the chasing team exceeds the other teams’s score by 1 or more! .. even up to 6 more . For the NRR calculation the eventual score reached is used (and not just par score +1) as can be seen for West Indies in this page : http://www.cricinfo.com/wt202009/engine/series/335113.html?view=pointstable . WI had hit a 4 from 168 to exceed 169 of Aus and it is 172 that is used under “For” column
In your formula I used N=100, P=106 and found that Pakistan could have more balls to do it with a six – on or before 17.1 overs and still exceed NNR of Netherlands.
Another interesting issue: Say for N=100, P reaches 100 at 16.3. In the next ball if they score 1 they win match but fall short in NRR to qualify. But if in that 100th ball they run 2, then they win as well as exceed NRR of Netherlands. While I am sure winning hits of 4 and 6 are fully included in final scores, I am not sure about the excess above winning target from 2 or 3 runs, because on completing the winning run the ball may be considered dead. Or does the umpire wait till batsmen complete additional runs before dislodging bails? Any idea?
@Manish
Yes Manish, thats how the pools look.. 7 of the 8 spots have been decided. The 8th will be decided between Pak and NTL.
No points will be carried forward. Super 8s will start fresh with all teams on 0 and then winner of Group E will play runner up of F in the semi and vice versa..
@Q
Thanks Q.
BTW, contrary to expectations, Pak have opted to bat first.
Its nice to share such info…..gr8
@K. Sethu I don’t think it matters now since Pakistan batted first. But you have a point about hitting a six to win the match. In that case, they could take a ball or two more.
The problem, of course, is the difficulty and unpredictability of being able to hit a six or four off the last ball.
I am not sure about being able to run more runs after winning. I thought it should be a dead ball, but the dead ball rules don’t say anything. I think the match is over at that time. So it may mot be possible.
now tournament is starting fresh. so who r expected team for semi finals?
Usman, they are
Group A: India, England, West Indies, South Africa
Group B: Ireland, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, New Zealand
i mean projected semi final teams. from this group?
@usman At this point, I would say India, South Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are looking favorites for the semis.