The first day of this Test was, without any doubt, the worst day of the series for England and it promises to get even worse. Australia seem intent to inflict as much pain on England as possible. And unless England do something truly amazing in the second innings, the match is as good as lost.

Which, in the greater scheme of things, is not so bad at all. At the start of the series, you would have been hard pressed to imagine England leading at the mid-point mark. So even if everything goes south for England from here on, they will only lose the series 1-2 which is quite a comeback from their 0-5 thrashing on their last tour of Australia.

And of course, England can always hope for the next Test. An Australian victory in this Test would set it up nicely. A win or draw in the final Test will help Australia retain the Ashes. England have to play for a win. A draw in this Test would have meant England trying to play for a draw in the final Test which would have made for dull viewing.

It was never going to be an easy task for England to force a win and so it proved. Australia lost just three wickets all day and did not invite England to bat again. As I mentioned yesterday, Australia’s one hope of winning was if they were bowled out with a 100+ lead and they came back to knock England out. The slim pickings of the English bowlers proved both a blessing and a curse – it allowed Australia to reach safety, but it offered them no hope of bowling England out.

Michael Hussey made a fighting 64: not enough to keep the critics quiet, but just enough to be retained for the next Test. A great catch by Anderson ruined Marcus North’s perfect 50-to-100 conversion rate. And Clarke made his second century of the tour, though his slow-down tactics at the end seemed weird – maybe he was just put off by North’s dismissal. If it was meant to mess with England’s head, it probably backfired when the bails failed to topple once and when he was caught off a no-ball. Manou did not have much time to make an impression.

On the other side, while the English bowling has been better than expected, they have been found missing in many sessions during this series. If they have to keep Australia under pressure, they need to strike more consistently. Also, in retrospect, Anderson should have bowled earlier in the day – lightning doesn’t strike twice!

So it is down to the final two Tests. England need to draw the next two or win at least one. Australia need to win just one more. A draw or an Australian win in the next Test will leave all to play for in the final match.

Once again, it feels very strange to see England in the driver’s seat in a Test against Australia. After the Cardiff Test, many people pointed out that England, having been outplayed, had no right to celebrate. But right now, it looks like Anderson and Panesar marked a change in England’s fortunes. Since then, Australia have had very little to cheer.

I would plump for 75% chance of a draw tomorrow, 20% an England win and 5% an Australian victory. If the latter happens, it would probably be accidental than deliberate. For example, if Australia get bowled out with a 120+ lead and England chase and have a sensational collapse. I don’t think that Australia are likely to try to set England a target and go for a declaration. After all, Australia simply need to draw the series to retain the Ashes. They don’t want to lose the Test and end up having to win the next two matches.

There are 98 overs tomorrow. An England victory requires England to take the remaining 8 Australia wickets within 60 overs or so, leaving them a chase in 35-odd overs. This is assuming that the run rate is well under control because of wickets falling. On the other hand, if the Australians are more belligerent, England has to wrap it more quickly.

I guess the first hour or so will determine the outcome. A couple of quick wickets putting Australia on the backfoot will set up things nicely. Australia would consider itself safe if it can reach a lead of 100 with less than 3 wickets falling. The Australians, like the English, have a tail that can make some runs.

The people to look for on the final day? Hussey is surely playing for his place in the team. If he misses out and Australia lose, I cannot think of any reason why he should still be playing in the next Test. Manou has the opportunity to make a mark. The rest of the Australian side looks safe, though North has not done much after his unbeaten 125 in the first Test.

Swann may play a greater role on the final day – he bowled just 2 overs in the first innings taking one wicket. Broad, wicketless in the first innings, needs to step up. Will England overbowl Flintoff on the final day? Anderson and Onions have a chance for glory here with a ten-wicket match haul, if they can take advantage of early conditions tomorrow.