So it will be
Australia v England, on Friday
Pakistan v New Zealand, on Saturday
Just a few days after they played a 7-match series, we will see the Aussies and Poms go at it again. Australia won that 6-1 and start favorites here too.
And this is the umpteenth time Pakistan play New Zealand in a Big Tournament Semi-Final, the best being the 1992 Martin Crowe Inzamam-ul-Haq match.
I have written a calculator for all the permutations tomorrow and put it up at BCC! (Bored Cricket Crazy Indians)
But everything depends on Pakistan playing well enough to beat Australia. Pakistan has already qualified for the semis while Australia needs to win to avoid any suspense.
And then there is rain. If either match is rained out, Australia and Pakistan will go through.
It is a tough deal for India, but as Leela points out, at least they have some hope, which they wouldn’t if rain had stayed away from the Australia match.
Great, now we depend on Pakistan even for the slightest chance of making it to the semis.
Just like Sri Lanka depended on England! As was more than adequately shown today, England had no interest in letting Sri Lanka through to the semi-finals via the back door. They couldn’t even make it seem not too obvious that they were throwing the match, what with Andrew Strauss leading the way with a duck. And New Zealand prolonging the misery of every Sri Lankan who tuned into the match by throwing away a few wickets towards the end.
Giving hope is the worst form of giving!
Turning to my blog reader, I find that Ducking Beamers has already made the point:
Pakistan fans will root for a victory against Australia, but in doing so, they will inadvertently root to increase India’s chances. Meanwhile, Indians will tune in for, of all things, a Pakistan victory. It’s a real cumbaya moment, but I’d hate just to mock it. This is the fun of sport, when love for the game supersedes even 60 years of mutual hatred — if only for a match against the White Man.
Meanwhile, I am waiting for Arm Ball to root for Pakistan tomorrow after writing this dreck:
Losing to Pakistan is a shame anywhere. We wont mind losing to Kiwis or Windies or even England, but no losing to Pakistan.
All those calculations would have been useful if England were the least bit interested in having Sri Lanka join them in the semi-finals. They weren’t. If England had to choose between Sri Lanka and New Zealand to play again in the finals, the Kiwis would be the natural choice. So it was not a big surprise to see the Poms do their best to grant them an easy berth to the semis.
I suppose not all the English players were in on the charade. Ryan Sidebottom for one. Perhaps Stuart Broad for another. But the rest were pretty obliging. Even with that, the Kiwis managed to lose 6 wickets while getting to the target.
Of course, there is no real *proof* that England threw the match. There wouldn’t be. After all, you don’t want to be censured by the ICC.
But consider the circumstantial evidence: By losing today, England gained a lot. They will not play on this pitch for the semifinals. They will have an additional rest day for the finals. They have eliminated Sri Lanka, the most dangerous ODI team after Australia.
I suppose New Zealand missed a trick. They should have thrown away their wickets after going past the required runs to reach the semis. They could have avoided the pitch and gained the rest day. But maybe it was the safe solution. You don’t want to do a 2003 WC South Africa, misread some figure and then lose out by one measly run.
So my predictions for Group B have been totally destroyed. But Australia should reach the semis tomorrow and they remain the favorites to win the Trophy.
New Zealand wins the toss and elects to bat.
All they have to do is win the match and they are through.
And if they cannot win the match, they need to restrict England to 260 or below and get mighty close, i.e., not lose by much. See details here.
So here’s the Cricinfo commentary while the Australia-India match was being washed out by rain:
18.30 Tony Lewis, of Duckworth and Lewis, has emailed giving us the correct permutation. A newer version of the software was implemented for this tournament, which Tony has. Per the new WinCODA2 software being used by Tony and the scorers in South Africa, India’s target will be 266 in 42 overs, and 166 for 20 overs. Thanks for that Tony. Appreciated. And no, this system apparently does not take into consideration Powerplays.
It is amazing (incredible, astonishing, STUPID) that the rules for determining the outcome of a match are hidden inside proprietary software that even the No. 1 cricket website in the world doesn’t possess. It is even worse that no one, outside the makers of that proprietary software, can explain what those rules are.
So release the application source code already. Maybe Duckworth and Lewis can sign a contract with the ICC for being the sole vendors for the software, and they can license the technology to resellers who can service the local tournaments. That way, they don’t lose out when open-sourcing the software.
By releasing the code, every cricket enthusiast can look at the rules and suggest improvements that can be rolled back into the main product. Not to mention bugs that can be fixed.
I previously said that India’s campaign would last a whole of 5 days if they don’t qualify for the semis. Actually, make that three days. If they lose tomorrow against the Aussies, their chances end. They can then play West Indies for the wooden spoon.
The four-team group stage is rather a killer format in this respect. You lose one important game and you are looking at the brink. But India do have an opportunity to set things right, and any NRR calculations that come into place can be taken care of easily if they beat West Indies handily in the last match.
But India were disappointing in their first outing. Unless they make a remarkable comeback, it should be Pakistan and Australia through to the next round. I am hoping England and New Zealand join them. Should be a great set of semis and finals. On the other hand, I wouldn’t mind an India-Pakistan rematch in the finals, after they beat the Group B qualifiers.
Common sense would suggest that since New Zealand is behind Sri Lanka in the NRR (Net Run Rate), a loss would set them further back and destroy their chances of reaching the semis. But the twist here is that both NZ and SL have negative NRR and so although NZ cannot obtain a positive NRR, it can still generate a negative NRR that is higher than Sri Lanka and qualify.
So here is a graph that explains this. New Zealand must restrict England to a score that is 260 or below and then get very close to the score. This can range from between 14 runs if England is bowled out for 30 runs (impossible) to 4 runs or less if England goes above 200. If England cross 270, New Zealand have to win the match to reach the semis.
Obviously, New Zealand will qualify if they win the match. They cannot and should not attempt to lose the match by a few runs. This chart will only come into play in situations if and when New Zealand is close to the English target and only have a few wickets in hand.
For example, if England were bowled out for 180. New Zealand can only afford to lose by 5 runs. Let us say that they are in the final over with 3 balls to play, 7 runs to get and one wicket in hand. Instead of trying to smash a boundary to win the game, they should take that critical single to ensure the semifinal spot and then go for the win, if possible.
Hope somebody in the Kiwi team has this calculation done and not miss out by a few runs.
A few days back, Purna pointed out that 5% believed that England would win the Champions Trophy and she decided to cast her lot with Bangladesh! Well, believe it or not, England are just two victories away from being crowned the Champions (the next match against the Kiwis does not matter and they only need to win the semis and finals).
This competition is turning out to be a classic. Two consecutive victories for England. South Africa crashing out in the group stage. The second string West Indies creating major scares for Pakistan and Australia, and probably nightmares for the Indian team. Big favorites Sri Lanka just a few Net Run Rate decimal points away from elimination.
Today’s matches were spectacular. The Sri Lankan team’s batting performance against New Zealand was absolutely stunning despite their loss. Every time you thought that New Zealand had finished them off, another Lankan player would come out and bash a few sixes. Kulasekara hit his best ever ODI score (57 not out) and No. 10 Malinga equaled his. Thanks to their effort, the SL NRR stayed ahead just enough to keep them in the running. Take away 13 runs and South Africa would still be in the tournament and Sri Lanka would be flying back.
And England. Wow! After they had sunk to the absolute depths, losing to Australia 6-1, they are the first team to qualify for the semis. South Africa, yet again, fail to go past the first hurdle as hosts, despite that magnificent 141 by Graeme Smith. No choking this time. Just outplayed.
Tuesday will decide Group B. England are already through and the only effect of a loss is their position in the group (No. 1 or No. 2). But unless they lose by a huge margin, they will remain No. 1. New Zealand will go through if they win. If they lose, it will depend on Net Run Rate.
A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that a low scoring match (less than 237 or so) that goes to the wire may allow New Zealand to overtake Sri Lanka’s net run rate even though they lose. I will post a graph with more details in my next post.
I was trying to recall the last time India lost to Pakistan in a big tournament and simply couldn’t. This was a historic win for Pakistan and it will mean a lot for them to beat the arch-rivals even if they don’t do much for the rest of the tournament. As for India, unless they beat Australia on Monday, they will not qualify for the semi-finals – a big blow to one of the Trophy favorites.
Two Pakistani pairs – one batting (Shoaib Malik and Mohammad Yousuf) and one bowling (Saeed Ajmal and Shahid Afridi) – did most of the work today. The Malik-Yousuf double century partnership took the match away from India at a time when Pakistan was on the backfoot (65/3). Yousuf deserved a ton for his effort.
India should have applied more pressure at the beginning of that long partnership. Bowling Kohli was a joke. A couple of more wickets at that juncture could have resulted in a target around 200. Dhoni did not seem to be thinking very clearly.
The batting was better and India could have probably achieved a target that was some 30 runs smaller. But the run-outs didn’t help. Plus the fact that Rahul Dravid stayed there instead of Sachin Tendulkar probably sealed the result of the match. You can make a case that an India with Yuvraj Singh and Virender Sehwag may have overhauled that target and you may be right.
One last point which I have been harping on for sometime: Dhoni’s floating position. I don’t think it affected today’s result, but why does he keep shuffling the batting order between him and Suresh Raina? Not to say his weird tendency to come in at No. 3 if there is a platform.
India and Dhoni have to stop with this “flexible” batting order stupidity. It is a low percentage tactical move and the only person it seems to be benefiting is Dhoni. Take a look at his scores in the last several matches where he has promoted himself to No. 3.