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Serious Thinking Needed for India After Series Defeat Against Australia

November 8th, 2009 Krishna 10 comments

Today’s loss against Australia at Guwahati meant that a full-strength India lost a home series against a depleted Australian side with one match to go. It is too early with respect to the 2011 World Cup to hit the panic button, but make no mistake, this is a serious setback to India’s preparations. And the Indian management have to think deep and hard about the choices that they need to make.

Apologists for India’s performance would point to three close matches that could have gone either way and to Tendulkar’s brilliant century. They would also be right in suggesting that a weakened Australia still has considerable strength in its ranks and also that the experienced team members (Ponting, Hussey) were in good form.

This obscures the details. First, the close matches were bolstered by a rearguard performance from Harbhajan and Co. Tendulkar’s 175 stands alone in a batting scorecard that shows no significant support. India fielded its best lineup in both batting and bowling, and were bowled out for 170 and conceded 350.

There will be a few scapegoats to be sacrificed at the end of this series. Probably one or more of the bowlers will be axed, and perhaps we will see a new No. 6 or No. 7 in the team. But that is not solving the problems that we saw in this series.

The first problem is that the bowling, for the most part, has been toothless. Unable to pick wickets when needed and unable to control the acceleration. Australia crossed 250 four times in the first five one-dayers. This was emphasized clearly when India used 9 bowlers in the just-concluded match to try to force the Australians to make a mistake. Usually, that shows a captain trying hard, but today, it just showed desperation.

The batting has been better, but it has not come together as a unit. The contributions of the lower order has masked the poverty of the performances. It doesn’t look likely that India will change their top five, except if forced to by injury. So it is time for them to step up.

The one blessing of this series has been Dhoni finding his place at No. 5 and not floating around. That is a good spot for him in my opinion and if India can find some better team performances from the top order and get a couple of good allrounders for the next two spots, the batting should be India’s strength at the World Cup.

Australia’s Close Shave

October 25th, 2009 Krishna 1 comment

The first match of the Australia-India series had some fireworks towards the end, but it didn’t quite end in the right climax. Praveen Kumar and Harbhajan Singh took India to the cusp of victory, but then gave it up. So Australia continue their excellent ODI streak (just the one loss to England in a dead rubber match). This was the second time in recent time they have kept their nerve, the last one being against Pakistan in the Champions Trophy.

Interesting lineup for India: Sehwag, Tendulkar, Gambhir, Kohli, Dhoni, Raina, Jadeja, Harbhajan, Praveen Kumar, Nehra and Ishant. This seems like a good template for going into the 2011 World Cup. Assuming no injuries hit and Yuvraj is back, we should see something like this:

Sehwag, Tendulkar, Gambhir, Yuvraj, Dhoni, batsman/allrounder, allrounder, spinner, fastbowler, fastbowler, spinner/fastbowler.

It is difficult to predict the bowlers for two reasons. One is injuries, obviously. The other is that there are several months before the World Cup where you have T20’s and other World Cups. It is quite easy for a good bowler to get smashed up badly in a critical match and then be dropped and not be considered for selection. The top 5 of the Indian batting lineup don’t have such problems.

I am of the opinion that Raina and Ishant be dropped. Neither have done much in recent times. Raina doesn’t have a great career record to begin with. And Ishant’s body language surely speaks volumes about his low confidence.

I am rather worried about the spinners. Harbhajan Singh has been on and off, but we don’t seem to have any good alternatives, either. The pace front doesn’t look too bad, but it is a matter of clicking at the important moments.

Still, it is early days. Let’s wait and watch!

India v Australia One Day Series Schedule

October 22nd, 2009 Krishna 2 comments

It starts from Sunday. Here you go:

October 5 (Sunday) at Vadodara – starts at 9:00 am IST

October 28 (Wednesday) at Nagpur – Day/Night starts at 2:30 pm IST

October 31 (Saturday) at Delhi – Day/Night starts at 2:30 pm IST

November 2 (Monday) at Chandigarh – Day/Night starts at 2:30 pm IST

November 5 (Thursday) at Hyderabad – Day/Night starts at 2:30 pm IST

November 8 (Sunday) at Guwahati – starts at 9:00 am IST

November 11 (Wednesday) at Mumbai – Day/Night starts at 2:30 pm IST

I don’t much like the 7-match ODI formats. Maximum 5 would be better. But India v Australia does seem a good competition. So as long as the matches remain closely fought, it should be okay. Australia should generally be the favorites, but on Indian soil, the home team may be able to pull some surprises. And India also has some players coming back from injuries. So game on!

How New Zealand Can Qualify If England Bats First

September 27th, 2009 Krishna 4 comments

Common sense would suggest that since New Zealand is behind Sri Lanka in the NRR (Net Run Rate), a loss would set them further back and destroy their chances of reaching the semis. But the twist here is that both NZ and SL have negative NRR and so although NZ cannot obtain a positive NRR, it can still generate a negative NRR that is higher than Sri Lanka and qualify.

So here is a graph that explains this. New Zealand must restrict England to a score that is 260 or below and then get very close to the score. This can range from between 14 runs if England is bowled out for 30 runs (impossible) to 4 runs or less if England goes above 200. If England cross 270, New Zealand have to win the match to reach the semis.

new zealand margin of loss

Obviously, New Zealand will qualify if they win the match. They cannot and should not attempt to lose the match by a few runs. This chart will only come into play in situations if and when New Zealand is close to the English target and only have a few wickets in hand.

For example, if England were bowled out for 180. New Zealand can only afford to lose by 5 runs. Let us say that they are in the final over with 3 balls to play, 7 runs to get and one wicket in hand. Instead of trying to smash a boundary to win the game, they should take that critical single to ensure the semifinal spot and then go for the win, if possible.

Hope somebody in the Kiwi team has this calculation done and not miss out by a few runs.

Forgetting Sachin Tendulkar’s ODI History

July 1st, 2009 Krishna 23 comments

Kartikeya Date writes in an otherwise good post (emphasis mine):

Comparing Gilchrist and Tendulkar is instructive, because they were different types of ODI opener. Gilchrist, in theory, did not bear the burden of shouldering his teams innings to the extent that Tendulkar did. Gilchrist did not open the batting because he was the best batsman in the Australian side. Tendulkar did it because of a simple reason – he was the best batsman in the Indian side, and so it made sense for India to have him face as many of the 50 overs as possible. This argument has not changed much over 15 years, even though the later batting has definitely been superior in this decade. Given this role, Tendulkar has more than met the targets set for him by the Indian side. As has Gilchrist for Australia.

This is a misreading of Tendulkar’s ODI career. Many people looking at Tendulkar’s 16000+ runs and 43 tons in one-dayers forget how average his initial ODI career was. Tendulkar, for a long time, was a much better/accomplished Test player than an ODI batsman. The nadir came during the 5-nation 1993 Hero Cup when Sachin Tendulkar was in the worst ODI form of his life and there were calls for axing him from the team.

Going into the 1993 final match against the West Indies, the non-performing Kapil Dev was also in a similar spot. And it came out that India was reduced to 161/5 (after three successive wickets for no runs) bringing Kapil to join Tendulkar. They staged a mini-recovery and allowed India to post 225, a reasonable score in those days, with Tendulkar remaining not out on 28 from 43 (yes, those were the days!) Kapil then returned back to take two early wickets and Kumble posted his record 6/12 as the Windies were bundled out for 123. I remember how that partnership helped protect both Sachin and Kapil from being tossed out immediately. I suppose if India had lost the final, maybe the selectors may have looked closely at the team composition. But when you win, you don’t change the team – Everybody knows that!

In those days, Tendulkar batted at No. 4 and was getting demoted because of his poor form. In contrast, Vinod Kambli was the toast of the hour. Anyway, fast forward a bit. Sachin makes a sole fifty against Sri Lanka in the next ODI series. He was in great form in the Tests which India won 3-0 (all by an innings), so his Test place was never in danger. But whether he deserved a spot in the ODI team remained a question.

And then the New Zealand tour that changed everything. In the second match, New Zealand were all out for 142. Tendulkar was promoted as the opener for the chase. He was promoted because the Indian opener in the previous match, Sidhu, was injured because of a neck strain. Tendulkar made 82 from 49 balls with 15 fours and 2 sixes, i.e, 72 out of 82 runs came from hits that crossed the boundary. This was a sensational innings and everyone who watched it were stunned by the audacity. Tendulkar continued his good form into the next few matches and so established his spot at the top of the order.

Now, remember Tendulkar was not the legend that he is today. A few months later, Tendulkar made his first ODI century against Australia and was criticized for playing slow. I saw that innings and it was excruciating. Tendulkar raced to his fifty in no time (probably faster than run-a-ball) and then made his century off 130 balls. He really wanted to get his century and slowed down to ensure that he didn’t take any risks. If I remember correctly, even Azharuddin, then captain, criticized Tendulkar. India won the match, so Tendulkar escaped without damage.

Tendulkar then made 3 ducks and an 8 in succession, made a century, then managed enough consistency and finally enough big scores to seemingly ensure no questions would be raised again about his spot. But the questions would come again in a different form, which many would be familiar with. The problem was that Tendulkar was performing so well up the order that the team depended upon him heavily for victories.

If Tendulkar went early, India invariably lost. India needed Tendulkar to hold the innings together. One obvious answer was for Tendulkar to play lower down the order (i.e., NOT face 50 overs) so that his dismissal didn’t mean the end of the game. So there were quite a few matches where Tendulkar did bat down the order. And it didn’t quite work out. Tendulkar was back at the top and this time, he would be there for a long time.

In short, Tendulkar’s opening spot was more of an accident [Sidhu's injury, small score, chasing, not much risk] than a strategic decision. Even with his explosive batting, his position at the top was not an universal guarantee, even and especially when he hit that slow first hundred. India had many make-shift openers during the 90’s (Mongia, Prabhakar) and Tendulkar was someone who happened to be successful. His success created a second problem when India failed to win matches without him and so people actually wanted him to bat down the order, which for various reasons, did not last for long.

And that is the way, my friends, history went.

It Really is a Holiday, Not a Series

July 1st, 2009 Krishna No comments

Anybody else note the schedule of the ongoing India-West Indies “ODI” series?

Sunday June 28: 2nd ODI
… 4 days …
Friday July 3: 3rdODI

Why don’t they call it a “friendly” and be done with it? I cannot believe anyone in either team would want to exert themselves when they can be in neutral and enjoy this Caribbean vacation. I wonder whose effigies will be burned when India stumbles into a 1-3 thrashing.

95 Balls Remaining

June 28th, 2009 Krishna 2 comments

Already the Indian team is going into hibernation mode. Apart from Dhoni’s near-century, only Yuvraj, RP Singh and extras crossed into double figures. We saw the bowling missing in the first match, today the batsmen joined them at wherever they were.

I cannot see the Indians being motivated enough to come back to win the remaining two matches. With a long break coming up and the inconsequential nature of this series, it doesn’t seem likely. On the other hand, there are quite a few West Indians who have something to prove.

We knew the batting was weak, so the surprise has been the bowling. After Dhoni and RP Singh gave India a fighting chance, the bowlers failed to put any pressure on the Windies.

Once again, this shows how unnecessary this series was in the first place. Dhoni has been put under tremendous pressure to accommodate the whims of the cricket boards.

Armball and Rohit Sharma

June 28th, 2009 Krishna 2 comments

Armball has some choice words for Rohit Sharma:

[bleep] Rohit [bleep] Sharma is a [bleep] [bleep] and [bleep] [bleep]

I wouldn’t use the same words myself, but Rohit Sharma has definitely moved into the liability column for India. Get busy performing or get busy packing!

Once Upon a Time in Cricket

June 28th, 2009 Krishna 3 comments

Remember the days

When 50 in 15 overs and 100 in 25 overs was a reasonable scoring rate.

When anything above 200 was a defendable target.

When 250+ was a frightening one.

When a run-a-ball innings was extraordinary and front-page news.

When you have an anchor and a striker as opening batsmen.

When 5-3-5-0 was a plausible spell for an opening bowler.

Yes, some things are not worth being nostalgic for.

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Are Maidens An Endangered Species?

June 26th, 2009 Krishna 3 comments

I previously wrote about the useless mention of minutes spent by a batsman in Twenty20 cricket. I now feel that recording maidens is also becoming unnecessary, not just in Twenty20, but even in one-day cricket. For example, today in the India-West Indies, the Indian innings had a solitary maiden out of 50 overs.

ODI batsmen are also the most likely to play in Twenty20. With the Twenty20 mentality to take something off every ball and conceding a maiden is unthinkable, I think we are entering an era where maidens will be extremely rare. In the past, batsmen have been content to play out even average bowling at the fall of a wicket. In the future, they may be as rare as hat tricks (especially in T20) with maidens only coming by a combination of great bowling, wickets tumbling and smart fielding.

There is, of course, no harm done by recording maidens, but their rarity would mean that they are probably not that much relevant anymore. If Twenty20 replaces ODI in the future, then the more so.

So what can we measure? Some people have advocated counting dot balls. That may be useful, but I wonder if they do share a different problem with maidens. That is, is a bowler who bowls 5 dot balls and then concedes a six better than another bowler who gives away six singles? The Economy Rate will always be a better indication of net bowler value than maidens or dot balls.