Why is India Losing?

Ducking Beamers wonders why this (6 consecutive overseas losses) is happening to India. So here goes:

  1. Of the 6 defeats, India could have legitimately won two (the second Test against England and the first against Australia) and perhaps drawn the third ( the first Test against England). So, instead of 0-6, we could have had a 2-3 record which would not have been so bad.
  2. Playing abroad is always tough. Australia has been the graveyard for most teams, and although they were beaten badly by England, they are on the resurgence with a series win in Sri Lanka and coming back to square the series in South Africa. And England were, of course, going to be tough opponents after their success in Australia.
  3. Since India had played (and won) many Tests at home, including against Australia (4 tests out of 6), our expectations were raised higher than usual. Added to this was winning the ODI World Cup, which has nothing to do with the Test team.
  4. India really performed well against Australia only in 2003. The 2008 series could have been worse, but the umpiring and Australia’s behavior in the Sydney Test motivated India to come back strongly. And as people have pointed out, Australia’s bowling did not have Warne or McGrath.

I am not sure if this sounds like excuse making and a whitewash should have been expected. To the contrary, I think what it shows is that a whitewash is not an accurate indication of what this team could have achieved and what the gap between India and her opponents are. But at the same time, it is also remarkable that after a good competitive start, the team has gone into full-blooded surrender mode instead of trying to make a strong comeback (such as the West Indies). The best example of this is Sehwag’s swish that landed him a pair in the 3rd Test against England, but you can find quite a few other examples.

An aside: I see that Mike Hussey still remembers Ishant’s spell to Ponting from all those years back.

It was probably the birth of Ishant Sharma, who bowled unbelievably well in that Test match. I remember a spell to Ricky Ponting, which was just phenomenal bowling.

What is amazing is that apart from the West Indies tour, Ishant has nothing to show for himself after all this time and he is still in the team. A 40+ average in every country other than India, West Indies and Bangladesh does not sound very good for a fast bowler.

Ricky Ponting Should Have Quit While He Was Ahead

Going by Australia’s performances in this World Cup, they didn’t look like the marauding gang of 2003 and 2007, nor like the exciting die-harders of 1999. If they had gone to win this World Cup, it would have been injustice. Well, consider justice served. The World Cup will finally have a new name after a decade of Australian dominance. Which brings me to a hypothetical about Ricky Ponting.

What if Ponting had retired after the 2007 World Cup? Today, he would be remembered thus:

  • Lead Australia to two impeccable World Cup victories and was part of another winning team (1999) and a losing finalist (1996)
  • Lost only 3 Tests: a dead rubber against India in Mumbai and two in the close 2005 Ashes series (both tight losses – 2 runs and 3 wickets).
  • Captain of Australia when they destroyed almost every opponent in Tests, including South Africa (2-0 and 3-0 home and away). Was part of the only Australian team to win in India in recent times (only captained the last Test)
  • Lots and lots of runs in both forms of the game, with some great knocks like the huge century in the 2003 final.
  • Batting statistics compared very favorably with Tendulkar and, at one point, it was plausible that Ponting could have overtaken him in total runs and centuries.

Now, as he goes off into the sunset, here is his record

  • Lost the Ashes three times (twice away, once at home), including the only time ever when a team has lost three matches by an innings.
  • Lost in India twice.
  • Lost at home to South Africa.
  • Gave away a match to Pakistan.
  • Never did anything much with the Twenty20 World Cup.
  • Saw Tendulkar pull away in the Test records quickly and beyond reach, while his own record slumped to “great, but mortal” status.

Full disclosure: I don’t really like Ponting that much – in fact, I don’t like him at all. So this is all good. Ponting owed a lot of his success to having a team of greats (Warne, McGrath, Gilchrist), and if he had quit earlier, he would have had an undeserved legacy. As it happened, he was exposed after the retirements of the senior players. Now, he will be remembered, but not too fondly.

I suspect that Australia will have to go through at least a couple of captains before they start climbing back to the top. There is a sense that Australia’s code has been cracked and i don’t think Michael Clarke can turn that around. None of the other existing players look like captaincy material at this point, so we will have to wait a while.

Brett Lee Wins It For New South Wales

An all-round performance by Brett Lee (5 sixes and 2 early wickets) did the unbeaten T&T in. Unlike the Cape Cobras, New South Wales were much more professional in the field and didn’t give any chances away to the West Indian team. Sweet revenge for an earlier loss to them in the tournament when it mattered.

As one user on Cricinfo said, Australians now own the World Cup, the Champions Trophy and the Champions League. The two teams which have won the Indian Premier League have both been captained by retired Australian players. Is there anything left for Australia to win?!

Maybe the Twenty20 World Cup, but that is coming up next year and Australia will surely win that. Perhaps in the same manner that they took a few attempts to win the Champions Trophy and now you cannot take it away from them.

On one hand, this domination is amazing. On the other hand, it is boring. Cricket needs some new narratives than, “Australians win again!” For years now, we have seen India and South Africa (and at one time, even England) challenge the dominance of the Australian team, but the depth of the talent in Australia is simply too much.

In a way, Australia is like the Brazil of cricket. There will be setbacks once in a while, but Australia have made a habit of coming back strongly from them.

The Usual Champs

Australia win another multi-nation one-day tournament.

What else is new?

Let’s face it. If it weren’t for the surprises thrown up by England’s form in its first two matches, this tournament would have probably seen a more conventional semifinal lineup. Australia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and South Africa. And the end result would have been the same – Australia winning the Trophy.

This was not a completely dominating performance by the Aussies. They survived a close match against Pakistan – two fewer runs would have knocked them out of the tournament. They had a scare against the West Indies and they had one against the Kiwis today at the outset of their innings. But the final results are what matters and Australia do what it takes to get them.

Australia’s dominance – 3 consecutive World Cups and 2 consecutive Champions Trophies – is amazing because all it takes is one loss in the knockout rounds (semis and finals). It means that they have a 10-0 record in such matches. Wonder when the Law of Averages will catch up to them.

While Ponting has tarnished his Test legacy with his two Ashes losses, these victories mean that he has no rival in the ODI captaincy arena. And if as everyone predicts ODIs will go out of business, his record will stay on for ever.

So that’s it. Australia win again. And everyone else can start looking at 2011.

The Trans Tasman Final

I cannot recall the last time Australia and New Zealand met in the finals of a major cricket tournament. Nor for that matter, in a semi-finals. Usually the Kiwis end up playing against Pakistan or Sri Lanka and the Aussies against South Africa. So, this may be a first and it will be interesting to watch where it goes tomorrow.

This is a big high for the New Zealanders who have had a disappointing year for the most part. Their Test performances took a nose dive (poorer than usual against India and Sri Lanka), they didn’t get to the World Twenty20 semis and the last tournament in Sri Lanka ended up badly for them. So this has been a good outing for them even if they started it with a poor match against South Africa.

As for Australia, this is business as usual for them. The second consecutive final for them. They start heavy favorites, New Zealand being one of the lesser challengers – I would rate South Africa, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan above the Kiwis as a threat to the Australians. But of course, no team can be taken lightly and the Kiwis have the ability to turn it on.

The interesting thing about the two finalists is their approach to cricket. Australia, to me, has always seemed a team that takes cricket in the most straightforward way. Bat well, bowl well and field well – you win the match. The only time I have ever heard the word “innovation” being mentioned in the same sentence as “Australia” was back in the early 1990s when the fielders used to sent flat throws from the boundary to the wicket. Which is not very different from “fielding better”. Australia succeeds because it simply plays better than the opposition.

New Zealand, on the other hand, has a fraction of the talent that Australia has and but over-performs compared to its potential. David Barry pointed out a possible reason in how software helps the Kiwis be more competitive. But even before all this, the Kiwis were one of the most innovative teams (pinchhitters in first 15 overs, spinners as opening bowlers, etc.) I don’t want to overplay this because New Zealand has never done enough to go all the way, but still they keep trying.

Which brings us to India. Interestingly, India’s biggest success (1983 WC) was when India most closely resembled the 1992 Kiwis. Since then, they have mostly played a conventional game, but never been good enough to win it all. The best performance since then (2003) was mostly built on Tendulkar’s amazing form during the Cup.

I don’t know what strategy India has for 2011. At this early stage, it doesn’t look like India has any major tricks up its sleeve to be an innovative team, but India also seems too brittle and inconsistent to be a tough conventional team. Guess we may have to cheer on Tendulkar to do a last act and this time not fall for 4 in the final match.

No Ifs and Buts: India Must Beat Australia or Crash Out

I previously said that India’s campaign would last a whole of 5 days if they don’t qualify for the semis. Actually, make that three days. If they lose tomorrow against the Aussies, their chances end. They can then play West Indies for the wooden spoon.

The four-team group stage is rather a killer format in this respect. You lose one important game and you are looking at the brink. But India do have an opportunity to set things right, and any NRR calculations that come into place can be taken care of easily if they beat West Indies handily in the last match.

But India were disappointing in their first outing. Unless they make a remarkable comeback, it should be Pakistan and Australia through to the next round. I am hoping England and New Zealand join them. Should be a great set of semis and finals. On the other hand, I wouldn’t mind an India-Pakistan rematch in the finals, after they beat the Group B qualifiers.

Why the ICC Test Rankings Make No Sense

I am not a huge fan of Australian domination of cricket, as I feel that cricket is boring if one team wins all the time. At the same time, I cannot find myself to agree in any way with the Australian team dropping from #1 to #4 after the recent Ashes defeat. And the rationale is very simple.

Australia have only lost 3 series out of 14 possible bilateral Test series (or 16, if you include Bangladesh). They have won the rest (with no ties) mostly by crushing the opposition. In fact, before the 2007 Perth loss to India, they had equalled the record for consecutive Test victories only to see India break the streak. The numbers are brutally one-sided: 18 wins, 1 draw and only 3 losses at home and 13-6-5 abroad.

No other team even comes close. South Africa have a good overseas report card, but even they have 6 defeats to 9 wins. Australia and South Africa are the only teams to even have a success rate of more than 50% in away series.

Also, Australia’s Ashes loss did not change anything from the previous England tour. Both series ended 2-1 in England’s favor. So why should Australia suddenly fall from the top spot?

Most commentators are treating Sri Lanka’s #2 position as a joke, but there is some justification. At this point, Sri Lanka’s home Test series record is the same as Australia’s: 6 series wins and only 1 series loss (against Australia). The recent victories against Pakistan and New Zealand changed the previous series defeats and draws to series wins.

But the other side of the equation is that Sri Lanka’s away record is still very poor. They do not have a *single* Test series victory except against Bangladesh. The only other team with that kind of record is West Indies. To their credit, Sri Lanka has drawn series against England, West Indies, New Zealand and Pakistan, but the lack of a series victory is a glaring problem.

In one sense, Sri Lanka seems to be at the same position that India were in the 1990′s. India won almost every series (except against South Africa) played at home, but couldn’t win anything abroad for ages, even against the declining Windies. Only in this decade have they started winning abroad. So will Sri Lanka build upon their home success like India did?

If Australia should be at the top and South Africa is second, who should be #3? Should it be Sri Lanka or India? The home success rates for India and Sri Lanka are the same. This is because while India has won only 5 Test series, it has drawn two and lost none (the only team not to have lost a Test series at home).

India’s away record is much better than Sri Lanka’s with 3 wins and 4 losses (which includes the close Australian series) when compared to Sri Lanka’s 4 draws and 3 losses. India look much likely to improve that (in Australia and South Africa) than the Sri Lankan team.

So all things considered, India should be at #3 and Sri Lanka at #4. This may change in the future, but based on present facts, this is what it is.

England Win the Ashes

Incredible as the title seems, that is what happened today as England won by 197 runs, after bowling out a sometimes obstinate Australia. A few weeks ago, such a result would have been unthinkable as Australia seemed to have overcome their retirement woes with a new set of world beaters. In a sense, that is still true as Australia have been the better team for much of the series, but England came on top by winning the big moments.

Australia would have retained the Ashes by the fourth Test if only they had found one ball to end the Anderson-Panesar partnership that saved the first Test. They were clearly on the ascendancy in the third Test and may have won it if much time had not already been lost to rain. The story of this Ashes loss has been about two poor first innings at Lord’s and the Oval.

As Ponting pointed (pun intended) out today, the series stats would seem to show Australia as the clear winner. Only 2 centuries for England versus 8 for the Australians. No English bowler crossed 20 wickets in the series, but three Australians did. Except for Mike Hussey, all the Australian batsman ended with a good average for the series.

But the devil is in the details. As Homer explains, the England bowlers took 4 five-for’s when compared to 2 five-for’s for the Australians. And they were bowled out twice a match only in one Test. Also, four of the centuries came in the first Test, two others came while trying impossible chases of record targets never before accomplished in Test cricket and one came in the washed Test. Only one Australian century came when it mattered. England, in contrast, made both their centuries count.

It is a different series than the 2005 one. Partly because the wins have been by huge margins and there has been a see-saw effect throughout the series. Although England had to fight hard to secure their wins, it was only because Australia was chasing that one even gave them a hope against such huge targets. In the 2005 series, the wins were by a nail-biting 2 runs and 2 wickets. This series couldn’t compare to that.

Also, there was nobody like Shane Warne who took 40 wickets in that Ashes tour and hit a lot of runs too. Clarke, North, Siddle and Hilfenhaus had their moments, but nobody dominated the losing team like last time, when Shane Warne tried to do almost anything to prevent England from getting the crown.

On the English side, only Strauss dominated and the other players contributed bits and pieces at different times. Collingwood’s Cardiff moment was almost forgotten by the time we reached the final Test. Flintoff did little of note after Lord’s. Panesar and Bopara were dropped. Pietersen left before the series reached mid-way. Anderson and Swann ended up with 40+ averages, even though they had pivotal moments.

So a series without any big heroes. But that may be good for England as they rely on a team effort to build for future series. Enormous credit must be given to Strauss and Flower that they were able to achieve this result with, let’s admit it, an average team. They kept their cool when things got rough and stuck to their original gameplan.

Spare a thought for Ricky Ponting. One of the greats of the game, but who ends up as the first Australian captain in a century to lose twice in England. He had the unlucky fate to be presiding over the transition of the team. There are quite a few excellent players in the group, but getting them to deliver consistently has been enormously difficult. Will Ponting be able to achieve that before he retires?

New Faces for the Edgbaston Test

It is funny how cricket turns up the unexpected. Before the Ashes started, you would have been very comfortable laying your money on England worrying about its lineup based on form and Australia doing so on injury. How the tables have turned as England reach the mid-point leading 1-0 and Australia trying to come up with the right answer.

It is definite that Pietersen will be out because of his Achilles injury and perhaps Flintoff too. Bell will be the first replacement and Harmison may get the other remaining spot. That leaves the English batting a little weakened. As for bowling, both Flintoff and Harmison have never been consistent, so it is difficult to say who would be the better bowler. In hindsight, Flintoff won the bowling honors at Lord’s, but it was never a given before the Test.

Australia have to contend with Johnson’s poor showing in the first two Tests. Unable to make a return to form in the tour match against Northamptonshire, he is the most likely one to be dropped. Hughes is the other possible candidate to sit on the benches, even though he did make 68 in the last innings of the tour match. Johnson is likely to be replaced by Clark or Lee, while Hughes by Shane Watson.

The Johnson replacement would plug an open wound in the Australian side. Although Johnson has taken 8 wickets in the first two Tests, he has leaked a lot of runs creating pressure on the rest of the team. The main downside is that Australia will miss his aggressive batting.

Shane Watson shone in the tour match and is hot favorite for replacing Hughes. His presence in the side also provides another bowling option for the Australians. But I am not sure if Australia should go this route. Hughes should be given some more rope given the strong Australian batting order, which, to be fair, failed only once in this series so far.

Flintoff and Swann Clean Up Australia

England must have had a sleepless night yesterday. Imagine losing a Test after setting a target of 522. Andrew Strauss, in particular, must have been re-thinking that declaration over and over again. With most teams, defending 200 more runs with only 5 wickets to get is a good situation. With the Australians, it seems scary.

In the end, England cleaned it up without too much worry. The second over of the day claimed Haddin. While Clarke and Johnson put a mini-stand, once Clarke fell to Swann, England did not waste too much time cleaning up the tail. Johnson took the opportunity to make a quick 63, but it was only delaying the inevitable without any support from the other side.

And so, Australia lose an Ashes Test for the first time in ages. It was not easy – 406 is among the top scores made in the last innings. And while Clarke and Haddin were there yesterday, they looked like they would win. In the end, their failures in this Test added up – letting the English tail go past 400, the first innings failure and not being able to stop England’s rampage in the second innings.

The Ashes is not over by any means. The last time Australia lost a Lord’s Test, they won the series. Will they repeat that, or will Ponting be the Australian captain who loses two Ashes series? Australia have the talent to bounce back. Their main weakness is the bowling attack that has been toothless against the English batsmen. It is probably time to bring Lee and Clark back, though I would favor Clark over Lee.

England have their own troubles. Injuries to Flintoff and Pietersen make their availability for the next Test suspect. The bowling is as bad as, if not worse than, the Australians. I find it incredible that Strauss still believes that Broad can take wickets. England needs to bring in better firepower if they want to stop a vengeful, marauding Australian team in the third Test.