Delayed Humor of the Week

I meant to post this at the time (October 6), but better late than never. From Achettup (SOAL):

Heads of boards representing England, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka and the West Indies announced moments after the Champions Trophy’s closing ceremony that they were withdrawing from the ODI format. When pressed by every reporter present on whether the decision had been influenced in anyway by Australia’s undisputed dominance of the format, all eight shouted in unison “NO!”

Maybe they should have an ODI tournament that does not have Australia playing. Or start placing some cricket balls in strategic positions when the Australians are in practice. Even at this early stage, I cannot see why Australia could not win a fourth World Cup in succession.

Champions Trophy Predictions: Bronze Model and Wooden Spoon

I did okay on the predictions at Commentary Position, ending up at the third position. The major points haul was choosing Australia as the eventual winner of the tournament. If England had played more to form in their first two matches, I might have ended up winning.

But I crashed miserably with Fantasy Cricket, ending up last in the BCC! league. Since it was my first attempt at it, it was par for the course. Maybe try better next time. It is, of course, easier to predict teams than players. So we will see.

All I can see is that I am lucky I didn’t bet any money on any of this.

The Usual Champs

Australia win another multi-nation one-day tournament.

What else is new?

Let’s face it. If it weren’t for the surprises thrown up by England’s form in its first two matches, this tournament would have probably seen a more conventional semifinal lineup. Australia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and South Africa. And the end result would have been the same – Australia winning the Trophy.

This was not a completely dominating performance by the Aussies. They survived a close match against Pakistan – two fewer runs would have knocked them out of the tournament. They had a scare against the West Indies and they had one against the Kiwis today at the outset of their innings. But the final results are what matters and Australia do what it takes to get them.

Australia’s dominance – 3 consecutive World Cups and 2 consecutive Champions Trophies – is amazing because all it takes is one loss in the knockout rounds (semis and finals). It means that they have a 10-0 record in such matches. Wonder when the Law of Averages will catch up to them.

While Ponting has tarnished his Test legacy with his two Ashes losses, these victories mean that he has no rival in the ODI captaincy arena. And if as everyone predicts ODIs will go out of business, his record will stay on for ever.

So that’s it. Australia win again. And everyone else can start looking at 2011.

The Trans Tasman Final

I cannot recall the last time Australia and New Zealand met in the finals of a major cricket tournament. Nor for that matter, in a semi-finals. Usually the Kiwis end up playing against Pakistan or Sri Lanka and the Aussies against South Africa. So, this may be a first and it will be interesting to watch where it goes tomorrow.

This is a big high for the New Zealanders who have had a disappointing year for the most part. Their Test performances took a nose dive (poorer than usual against India and Sri Lanka), they didn’t get to the World Twenty20 semis and the last tournament in Sri Lanka ended up badly for them. So this has been a good outing for them even if they started it with a poor match against South Africa.

As for Australia, this is business as usual for them. The second consecutive final for them. They start heavy favorites, New Zealand being one of the lesser challengers – I would rate South Africa, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan above the Kiwis as a threat to the Australians. But of course, no team can be taken lightly and the Kiwis have the ability to turn it on.

The interesting thing about the two finalists is their approach to cricket. Australia, to me, has always seemed a team that takes cricket in the most straightforward way. Bat well, bowl well and field well – you win the match. The only time I have ever heard the word “innovation” being mentioned in the same sentence as “Australia” was back in the early 1990s when the fielders used to sent flat throws from the boundary to the wicket. Which is not very different from “fielding better”. Australia succeeds because it simply plays better than the opposition.

New Zealand, on the other hand, has a fraction of the talent that Australia has and but over-performs compared to its potential. David Barry pointed out a possible reason in how software helps the Kiwis be more competitive. But even before all this, the Kiwis were one of the most innovative teams (pinchhitters in first 15 overs, spinners as opening bowlers, etc.) I don’t want to overplay this because New Zealand has never done enough to go all the way, but still they keep trying.

Which brings us to India. Interestingly, India’s biggest success (1983 WC) was when India most closely resembled the 1992 Kiwis. Since then, they have mostly played a conventional game, but never been good enough to win it all. The best performance since then (2003) was mostly built on Tendulkar’s amazing form during the Cup.

I don’t know what strategy India has for 2011. At this early stage, it doesn’t look like India has any major tricks up its sleeve to be an innovative team, but India also seems too brittle and inconsistent to be a tough conventional team. Guess we may have to cheer on Tendulkar to do a last act and this time not fall for 4 in the final match.

Who Will Replace Dhoni?

In reply to my last post about firing Dhoni, a few of you have asked, “Who is there to replace Dhoni? There is NO alternative!”

My response is what would you do if Dhoni was injured and out of a year. Would India go with a captain? I don’t think so. We will find someone.

Regardless of Dhoni’s performance of a captain, we have to groom the second tier of leaders in the cricket team. With so many matches (international, IPL) being played today, India cannot afford to have a captain without any backup.

And it has to be a real backup. Not a puppet who is unaware of the strategies and tactics, and doesn’t have a mind of his own.

So let us take the 2011 World Cup which, I presume, is what all Indians cricket fans are looking forward to. It is a watershed event because it will probably mark the end of the Tendulkar era. I don’t think Tendulkar, Dravid and some players in other teams (Murali, Ponting?) will continue beyond that.

We have roughly 18 months to go before that. So what is our Grand Unified Strategy?

What is our core team? Who are the players? What is the backup plan for each of these players in case of injury and lack of form? What are we doing to ensure adequate playing time for the players and their backups, without overburdening them?

Are we planning to launch any special tactics for the World Cup (ala NZ 1992, SL 1996, etc.)? Are we going to pilot them or keep them hidden until the last minute? Will there be special tactics for batting, bowling, fielding or taking advantage of ODI rules (such as Powerplay times)?

What if we cannot execute these tactics effectively or they don’t yield the predicted results? Do we have a conventional plan to fall back upon? This is the most critical part, because if we cannot win by playing conventionally, then we will be blown out of the water by strong teams such as Australia and South Africa. Innovative tactics has to be built upon a team that can still play well otherwise.

What has India done in the last 12 months that gives you the confidence as an Indian cricket fan that India can bring the goods in 2011? My confidence was high at the beginning of the year, but with each passing month, I feel that India is losing its way.

Once again, we have 18 months. Do you think Dhoni can do his job and get the strategy right? Or should we persist with him and then see India keep experimenting with showmanship tactics that do nothing to advance our campaign for the World Cup?

Champions Trophy 2009 Semifinal Lineup

So it will be

Australia v England, on Friday

Pakistan v New Zealand, on Saturday

Just a few days after they played a 7-match series, we will see the Aussies and Poms go at it again. Australia won that 6-1 and start favorites here too.

And this is the umpteenth time Pakistan play New Zealand in a Big Tournament Semi-Final, the best being the 1992 Martin Crowe Inzamam-ul-Haq match.

How India Can Qualify for the Semis

I have written a calculator for all the permutations tomorrow and put it up at BCC! (Bored Cricket Crazy Indians)

But everything depends on Pakistan playing well enough to beat Australia. Pakistan has already qualified for the semis while Australia needs to win to avoid any suspense.

And then there is rain. If either match is rained out, Australia and Pakistan will go through.

It is a tough deal for India, but as Leela points out, at least they have some hope, which they wouldn’t if rain had stayed away from the Australia match.

Irony of the Day

Achettup at BCC!:

Great, now we depend on Pakistan even for the slightest chance of making it to the semis.

Just like Sri Lanka depended on England! As was more than adequately shown today, England had no interest in letting Sri Lanka through to the semi-finals via the back door. They couldn’t even make it seem not too obvious that they were throwing the match, what with Andrew Strauss leading the way with a duck. And New Zealand prolonging the misery of every Sri Lankan who tuned into the match by throwing away a few wickets towards the end.

Giving hope is the worst form of giving!

Turning to my blog reader, I find that Ducking Beamers has already made the point:

Pakistan fans will root for a victory against Australia, but in doing so, they will inadvertently root to increase India’s chances. Meanwhile, Indians will tune in for, of all things, a Pakistan victory. It’s a real cumbaya moment, but I’d hate just to mock it. This is the fun of sport, when love for the game supersedes even 60 years of mutual hatred — if only for a match against the White Man.

Meanwhile, I am waiting for Arm Ball to root for Pakistan tomorrow after writing this dreck:

Losing to Pakistan is a shame anywhere. We wont mind losing to Kiwis or Windies or even England, but no losing to Pakistan.

Curtains for Sri Lanka

All those calculations would have been useful if England were the least bit interested in having Sri Lanka join them in the semi-finals. They weren’t. If England had to choose between Sri Lanka and New Zealand to play again in the finals, the Kiwis would be the natural choice. So it was not a big surprise to see the Poms do their best to grant them an easy berth to the semis.

I suppose not all the English players were in on the charade. Ryan Sidebottom for one. Perhaps Stuart Broad for another. But the rest were pretty obliging. Even with that, the Kiwis managed to lose 6 wickets while getting to the target.

Of course, there is no real *proof* that England threw the match. There wouldn’t be. After all, you don’t want to be censured by the ICC.

But consider the circumstantial evidence: By losing today, England gained a lot. They will not play on this pitch for the semifinals. They will have an additional rest day for the finals. They have eliminated Sri Lanka, the most dangerous ODI team after Australia.

I suppose New Zealand missed a trick. They should have thrown away their wickets after going past the required runs to reach the semis. They could have avoided the pitch and gained the rest day. But maybe it was the safe solution. You don’t want to do a 2003 WC South Africa, misread some figure and then lose out by one measly run.

So my predictions for Group B have been totally destroyed. But Australia should reach the semis tomorrow and they remain the favorites to win the Trophy.