Tag Archives: england cricket

The Nasser Hussain Interview

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Cricinfo has a good interview with the former England captain, Nasser Hussain. See Part I and Part II. Here are a couple of good excerpts:

On England’s lack of success in one-dayers:

historically England have produced good, solid technical batsmen, but you wouldn’t say they have produced massive hitters of the ball or people who can be innovative with the bat, or have weird actions with the ball, spin it both ways or reverse-swing it. We’ve been a little bit too English, if you like, a little bit too orthodox. I think what wins you one-day games is a little bit of the unorthodox, and some individual brilliance. We’ve always lacked that, and Test match cricket is a little more of a team game.

On loyalty and team members complaining in the back:

When we were going through bad times, that’s when the team really start to chat properly. They won’t tell you things in team meetings or hotel rooms, but when they get away from it that’s when the niggly things come out. Why are we practising tomorrow? Why are we training tomorrow? Why is Hussain doing this, why is Fletcher doing that? Why is he still in charge? He hasn’t got any runs for two months. That’s when you need all your lieutenants out there, who will just quash that immediately.

Read the whole thing.

The Incredibly Shrinking Ravi Bopara

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From Zero to Hero to Absolutely Freezing Zero in just a few short months.

Here is Ravi Bopara’s Test career to date:

8, 34, 0, 0, 0, 104, 143, 108, 35, 1, 18, 27, 23, 1, 0

And now he seems to be doing something similar with his ODI and Twenty20 career. Out for a duck against Ireland in the sole ODI. And out for a single against Australia in the Twenty20 match. If he continues at this pace, surely his international career will be over, or at least, put on the back burner for a long time. Even if England cricket is overflowing with talent.

Bopara has never been even a decent player (batting averages of 33.46, 28.93 and 22.71 in the three forms), but his three centuries seems to signal that maybe he was turning over a new leaf. He had done enough against the West Indies to survive until the fourth Ashes Test, but then his poor form was too much even for England.

If he hasn’t been dropped already for the next match, Bopara should be on a very short rope. He needs to come up with something to justify his selection.

England Start Ashes Preparations in Style

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England beat the West Indies at Lord’s by 10 wickets today. With the Ashes barely two months away, this is a huge boost to the morale of the team. In many ways, this win has helped England preparations in a big way:

  1. Ravi Bopara’s century stops England, at least for now, from tinkering with the notion of bringing the inconsistent Bell and out-of-form Vaughan back at No. 3.
  2. The victory makes them less nostalgic for Vaughan’s captaincy. If Strauss and Flower can form a good duo together, England can “exorcise” the happy memories of Ashes 2005.
  3. A great find in Graham Onions. Swann’s great form and the rest of the bowling were not too bad either.

A few asterisks:

  1. West Indies dropped quite a few. England’s total would perhaps not been so imposing.
  2. There were quite a few failures in the batting lineup such as Pietersen and Collingwood. They will have to shape up.
  3. Tim Bresnan? A quiet debut. England need to see more of him in action.
  4. The partnership between Nash and Ramdin. Remember that South Africa lost the home series against Australia purely because they could not get the lower order (especially Johnson) out. Good teams learn to break partnerships and clean up the tail.

As for the West Indies, a shoddy performance, but they deserved what they got with their captain missing until a few days before the first Test. The only silver lining is that they have two more days to mull over things before they start the next Test. Their bowling was not too bad. But the fielding let them down and a fragile batting ended their hopes.

John Dyson Cost the West Indies A Series Win

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It took the final match to understand how big a MISTAKE John Dyson made by misunderstanding the Duckworth-Lewis calculations in the first match of the ODI series between England and West Indies. If the West Indies had won or tied the first game, they would have easily won the series.

Even though England technically won the series, they did not win any match that was not rain-curtailed. The West Indians acquited themselves commendably in all the matches, even the last one, where they were in the chase for a considerable period of time.

As the tour ends, the West Indies have much to cheer. They won the Test series – a victory against a major Test-playing nation after a long time. They won the one-off T20 match. They would have won the ODI series if it hadn’t been for a self-inflicted wound. They fought as equals against the English team, who were unable to dominate them, except during for a few batting marathons during the Test.

For England, this was a tour to forget. They had been playing catch-up against the West Indians in all forms of the game. Against one of the more innocuous attacks in world cricket, they embarrassed themselves by getting bowled out for 51 (in the first Test) and 117 (in the 3rd ODI). Flintoff’s hattrick was one of the few good moments they had.

Despite England’s troubles, Andy Strauss’s captaincy is not in danger. Above all, There is No Alternative. Pietersen, Collingwood and Flintoff have been tried and failed. And Strauss has been in good form, hitting 3 centuries in the Tests, winning one ODI with his batting and almost winning another with a century.

West Indies have a return tour against England before the Ashes. In typical times, that would have given some comfort to the England team, gaining some confidence before the formidable Aussies arrive. Now, it is another round of pain for them.

[Photo licensed from mugley]

Can England and South Africa Still Win?

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Very unlikely, but if it happens, this is how it would happen.

England have a lead of 82 runs scored over 15 overs. There are 90 overs on the final day. If they bat only 30 overs, then they leave the West Indians 60 overs to get what they hit in 45 overs. Enough time for bowling them out, but enough time to allow them to win too. More likely, they will have to bat 43 overs with a 2-over break, thus challenging WI to make a 58-over target in 45 overs.

That is almost a 1-day scenario. Enough temptation. Will the West Indians go for it? And if they do, will the English bowlers have the guile to take them out? So far, they have not demonstrated anything of the sort. Of course, if someone can do a Taylor once again.

On a different continent, the South Africans need 302 runs with effectively only 7 wickets in hand. The only remaining batsmen who have made a mark in recent times are Duminy, Boucher and Steyn. Not very inspiring. Scoring 300 on the last day is never an easy task in any situation. Only saving grace is that the most threatening Australian bowlers seem to be injured. But then you know what happens: On comes Michael Clarke to make a mockery of the match situation.

Seriously, South Africa have to score at least 100 without losing a wicket and 200 without losing more than two. That makes it 100-odd to get with 25-30 overs and 5 wickets in hand. Then it is game on. If Boucher or Morkel can blast some boundaries at that point, then it will be pretty close. Of course, Australia have more options in a Test match to play negatively and avoid losing the match unlike a one-dayer.

All bets are off if South Africa lose early wickets tomorrow. It would be a much more interesting situation if it was only 200 to get today. South Africa could keep trying. But in this case, if they lose early wickets, Ponting can attack more without worrying about the odd boundary and put greater pressure and start toppling wickets.

As much as I would like the two matches to bring some surprises, I think we are in for boring foregone conclusions: Australia win and West Indies draw, sealing their respective series.

The Difference between England and Australia

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England’s last Test against the West Indies showed the difference between the two sides in stark terms. Australia know how to close out a match they are winning, while England fail to bring home the goods even when they dominate the match.

Here are some exhibits from England’s hall of shame:

  1. India manage to draw the first Test in their last tour of England (July 2007) with one wicket left as Dhoni and Sreesanth block for 5 overs and rain came to stop the match after tea. 
  2. South Africa beat England in the 3rd Test (August 2008) by 5 wickets. Chasing a target of 281, South Africa were reduced to 4/93, but an unbeaten captain’s innings of 154 by Graeme Smith took SA to victory.
  3. England declare and still lose. Having dominated the match for three and a half days against India (December 2008), they were defeated by a pumped-up Sehwag (83 off 68 balls) and a Tendulkar playing one of the greatest innings of his life as India overhaul a massive 387 runs for victory.
  4. After being bowled out for 51 in the first Test, England make a strong comeback dominating the entire Test, but let West Indies off the hook in a tantalizing draw. England needed one more wicket. Two tailenders at the crease. 10 overs later, the West Indians are smiling as they make the Great Escape.

Compare that with Australia:

  1. India make a huge 532 runs, but Australia has other plans in this 2008 Sydney Test. Helped more than a little by umpiring decisions, India look safe with two overs to go and three wickets standing. Michael Clarke comes to bowl with his slow spin and prises out three wickets in one over. 
  2. This year, once again in Sydney, in the penultimate over, with Graeme Smith and Makhaya Ntini trying to save the match, Johnson bowls Smith. The South African just need to stay afloat for 10 more balls. That was not to be.

If these matches had gone the other way, the results for England would be series wins against SA (at home) and India (in India) and a drawn series against India (at home). Perhaps Michael Vaughan would still be the England captain. As for Australia, they would have been beaten 1-2 at home by India, which would have meant more changes in the team earlier in the year.

England Team Keeps Fans Confused

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England have bounced back from their spectacular low of 51 all out in the first Test against the West Indies with a monumental total of 566. With almost all the England players cashing in with 2 centuries and 3 fifties, this was a team effort and everyone deserves credit from being able to exorcise the ghosts of the Sabina Park debacle.

When a team makes a score ten times higher than their previous outing, we have to look closely at their patterns of performance. So, we took a look at the recent performances of England and compared it with the West Indies. To no one’s surprise, England is much stronger on its batting performances than the West Indies. The English team has an average of 36 runs per wicket in its last 13 Test matches (including the Jamaica Test), while the West Indies have an average of 31.68 per wicket. That is almost 43 runs per innings.

However, England’s scores have a standard deviation of 18 runs per innings, which means that they are as likely to score 180 as they are to score 540. WI have a standard deviation of 11 runs, which means their capability is more between 200 and 420. Obviously, teams change in composition (with players retiring or dropped) and they play against different countries, but it is still very striking. The West Indians, while performing poorly, are performing consistently. England, on the other hand, can put up huge scores, but are also prone to collective failures.

Even without the help of statistics, we see England running the gamut from an imperious 593/8 declared against an opponent no less than the South Africans, but also slumping to 110 all out against the Kiwis. The lowest score for West Indies was 139 and their highest score was 408, significantly lower than what England could achieve as a team. In fact, if they overhaul England’s first innings in the current Test, that would be a statistical outlier, almost 50% more than their high score in more than a year.

England should not have to bat again in this match, but the West Indians are pretty good at sticking around. And if the weather plays a part, they may still escape unscathed.

[Photo licensed from z_dead]

Why England Lost

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Let us take a look at the batting statistics of the England and West Indian teams again, this time comparing it to the averages in the match.

Strauss      42.37    8.00   -34.37
Cook         42.70    2.00   -40.70
Bell         41.48   16.00   -25.48
Pietersen    50.48   49.00    -1.48
Collingwood  42.04    8.50   -33.54
Flintoff     32.23   33.50     1.27
Prior        40.62   32.00    -8.62
Broad        33.90    2.00   -31.90
Sidebottom   15.64   32.00    16.36
Harmison     11.63    3.50    -8.13
Panesar       5.50    0.00    -5.50

Gayle        39.60  104.00    64.40
Smith        24.30    6.00   -18.30
Sarwan       39.58  107.00    67.42
Chanderpaul  49.71   20.00   -29.71
Marshall     22.09    0.00   -22.09
Nash         54.00   55.00     1.00
Ramdin       20.60   35.00    15.60
Taylor       16.66    8.00    -8.66
Benn         11.00   23.00    12.00
Powell        7.10    9.00     2.10
Edwards       4.45       -        -

The English batsmen (except for Flintoff, Sidebottom and Pietersen) came nowhere close to their average Test performances. In contrast, the majority of the West Indian team played greater than their potential. Right at the top, we can see the difference, the Top 3 of the English order scored 26 runs in 6 innings between them. The West Indian Top 3 scored 217 runs.

If we look at just the first innings, the difference is not huge. England would have accepted a 74-run first innings deficit, chalking it up to a below-par batting performance from them in the 1st innings and a few tenacious innings from the West Indians. What blew them away was the fiery 5-wicket haul by Taylor. Seldom has the flow of a match been totally changed within a few overs.

The English bowling was not terrible – Broad took a fiver, Harmison and Flintoff with 2 wickets each and Panesar & Sidebottom bowled tightly with little reward. In the West Indian team, only two bowlers really performed. But what a performance: 8 wickets each for Taylor and Benn at 10.62 and 13.50 respectively. They came into the match with unintimidating averages of 59 and 35 respectively and changed the complexion of the game.

The real battle of the match was fought and won in just 155 minutes and 200 balls (33.2 overs). Now how will England respond, especially if Chanderpaul, who missed out on this match, decides to join the party? Can the West Indies repeat their bowling performance in the next match?

England Humiliated

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The problems of Australia and Sri Lanka seem trivial when compared to what transpired with England today. When West Indies were out for 392 on the 4th morning of the Test, hardly anyone in the world would have imagined that the game would be over in less than three hours, with England bowled out for their third lowest score in a Test innings.

Until England’s innings, there was not much to choose between the two teams. Obviously, England had under-performed against their potential, allowing the West Indies to grab a 76-run lead, but the major damage was caused by the two WI centurians, Gayle and Sarwan. But there are no excuses to the events that happened after that. Taylor bowled the spell of his lifetime. And surprise, surprise! They got there without a significant contribution from Chanderpaul.

This is an incredible mess for England. After the public linen-washing in the Pietersen-Moores flap, the ECB and Strauss, the new captain, would have hoped to turn over a new leaf against an opponent, currently the weakest of the Test-playing nations bar Bangladesh. That was not to be. It will take enormous mental strength from the team to overcome this setback. Echoes of the Adelaide debacle come to mind. Will a demoralized England be even competitive in the remaining Tests? This is going to be the biggest challenge for Strauss.

As for our prediction about the match winner, we seem to have egg on our face, probably a few rotten vegetables too! But models are there to be improved using results. And so, we will come up with an improved model for the upcoming matches.

Kridaya Prediction Meter: Why England Will Beat West Indies

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On this blog, we are starting predictions for various cricket tournaments, starting with Test series between major Test-playing nations. The Kridaya Prediction Meter will start with basic statistical information and then we will move towards a more rigorous statistical analysis using more data. The first analysis will be about the England tour of West Indies.

west-indies-england-cricket

For the first installment, we are going to simply look at the batting averages of all the players in the two teams and see what we come up with:

England and WI Batting averages

Strauss 42.37 Gayle 39.60
Cook 42.70 Smith 24.30
Bell 41.48 Sarwan 39.58
Pietersen 50.48 Chanderpaul 49.71
Collingwood 42.04 Marshall 22.09
Flintoff 32.23 Nash 54.00
Prior 40.62 Ramdin 20.60
Broad 33.90 Taylor 16.66
Sidebottom 15.64 Benn 11.00
Harmison 11.63 Powell 7.10
Panesar 5.50  Edwards 4.45

As you can see, man-for-man, every person in the England batting lineup (except for No. 6) has a better batting average. The single exception (Nash) has only played 2 Tests in the recently concluded WI-NZ series. A better comparison would be the first-class batting averages of Flintoff (34.41) and Nash (30.93), where Flintoff comes out ahead. So, there is simply no comparison between the batting orders of the teams.

If you add up the batting average for both teams, here is what we get:

   England     359
   West Indies 282

That is a difference of 75 runs per innings and 150 runs per Test. A huge gap between the two teams. If West Indies have to win, England has to perform way below their on-paper strengths and West Indies have to rise above. The only bright point is that Chanderpaul has been playing well above his average in recent times, and the West Indies seem slightly resurgent with a strong draw in New Zealand. The top five in the England team have not played a single Test in the West Indies before this series. But that is about it.

We confidently predict England beating West Indies in this series.

[Photo licensed from nicksarebi]