A few days back, Purna pointed out that 5% believed that England would win the Champions Trophy and she decided to cast her lot with Bangladesh! Well, believe it or not, England are just two victories away from being crowned the Champions (the next match against the Kiwis does not matter and they only need to win the semis and finals).
This competition is turning out to be a classic. Two consecutive victories for England. South Africa crashing out in the group stage. The second string West Indies creating major scares for Pakistan and Australia, and probably nightmares for the Indian team. Big favorites Sri Lanka just a few Net Run Rate decimal points away from elimination.
Today’s matches were spectacular. The Sri Lankan team’s batting performance against New Zealand was absolutely stunning despite their loss. Every time you thought that New Zealand had finished them off, another Lankan player would come out and bash a few sixes. Kulasekara hit his best ever ODI score (57 not out) and No. 10 Malinga equaled his. Thanks to their effort, the SL NRR stayed ahead just enough to keep them in the running. Take away 13 runs and South Africa would still be in the tournament and Sri Lanka would be flying back.
And England. Wow! After they had sunk to the absolute depths, losing to Australia 6-1, they are the first team to qualify for the semis. South Africa, yet again, fail to go past the first hurdle as hosts, despite that magnificent 141 by Graeme Smith. No choking this time. Just outplayed.
Tuesday will decide Group B. England are already through and the only effect of a loss is their position in the group (No. 1 or No. 2). But unless they lose by a huge margin, they will remain No. 1. New Zealand will go through if they win. If they lose, it will depend on Net Run Rate.
A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that a low scoring match (less than 237 or so) that goes to the wire may allow New Zealand to overtake Sri Lanka’s net run rate even though they lose. I will post a graph with more details in my next post.