Australia still remain on the top of the ICC Test rankings with 126 points edging out South Africa which has 121 points. On an intuitive level, we know that this is meaningless, as Australia has just lost to both India and South Africa. In comparison, South Africa has had two excellent years. The last time they lost a series was in Sri Lanka in 2006. And if they beat Australia at home, no one can deny that they are the strongest team in world cricket today.

But in one way, South Africa have some ways to go before they can achieve the stunning heights of the previous No. 1. When Australia beat India 2-1 at home last year, they had won almost all the recent series against any opposition, home or away. Discounting Bangladesh, Australia had won 13 out of 14 possible series against the Test nations, the sole exception being the 2005 Ashes series. Not won and drawn, but won. And of course, the Ashes was lost by the small matter of 3 runs and 3 wickets.

Now, of course, that is down to 11 of 14. But South Africa’s record is 9 wins, 2 draws (against India and NZ away) and 3 losses (against Australia and England at home, and Sri Lanka away). They can fix the Australia loss immediately and probably beat England next time around. But India and Sri Lanka are considerable walls to surmount.

India first. India has the best home record after Australia with 5 series wins and 5 series draws. Since Australia’s home record is simply a function of their overall team strength (they win everywhere!) while India’s away record (5 series losses and 2 series wins) is atrocious with the same team, India simply has a huge home advantage that cannot be easily taken down. Steve Waugh rightly called India the “Final Frontier”. South Africa have had more success in India than most teams, but this year, even they were held to a draw.

As for Sri Lanka, the only teams to beat them at home have been Australia and Pakistan. While this blog has been harsh on Sri Lanka for their self-serving matches against Bangladesh, this is a team clearly on the rise with improved performances and a new matchwinner, Mendis, who is even more lethal than Murali. Beating them is not going to be easy.

Another big difference between the Australian and South African teams is the margin of victories. Australia had been dealing out whitewash after whitewash to unfortunate teams including South Africa. If we take the most recent series against all opposition, the success rate is 77% (32 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses). South Africa, by comparison, is at 57% (20 wins, 8 draws and 14 losses). 

South Africa look to be in the period when Australia seemed shy of asserting their dominance, namely, losing dead-rubber matches. They lost one in England earlier this year and now the Sydney Test. Winning more matches will likely make them more blood-thirsty. If this Australian series win is not a false dawn, we will soon see long winning streaks by the South Africans.