Ishant Sharma’s Powerful Godfather

Recently, I had a chat with Gaurav of BCC! fame about India’s terrible tour of Australia. One thing that came up was why everyone was talking about axing the seniors, but no one talked about the terrible form of Gambhir (now 181 runs at 22.62) and Ishant (now 5 wickets at 90.20). Since this chat was just after the Perth match, I commented that Ishant only took one wicket for 89 runs even though it was the place where he first rose to prominence after his famous spell against Ricky Ponting. I casually looked at the scorecard of that match and, lo and behold, I discover that Ishant had only taken 3 wickets in that entire match and two of them were Ponting in either innings, who had, including that Test, only made 120-odd runs in 6 innings in that series.

It amused me that, as a more-than-casual follower of cricket, even I was fooled by the hype surrounding Ishant’s spell that I totally forgot that he only took 3 wickets in a match that India won. Gaurav commented how odd it is that people remember him for a spell; typically, we remember bowlers for a Test or a series where they took a bunch of wickets and won matches. On my side, how it is that four years later, we remember a bowler for one spell he did four years ago. And how is he still in a national cricket team with a career bowling average of 37.87 with only 133 wickets after 45 Tests with only decent averages against West Indies, Bangladesh and New Zealand?

The only explanation is that he has some powerful Godfather protecting him. Conspiracy theory alert! But how else could you explain an article like this in Cricinfo, which suggests:

  • Ishant is more unlucky than untalented.
  • In a series where he has been the most expensive (other than Yadav), a cross-section of 20 overs where he only gave away 52 runs proves something. (Remove those overs and he gives away close to 4 runs an over)
  • Although he has been criticized for not bowling wicket-taking balls, those criticisms do not matter because Mike Hussey has a great opinion about him. Also Ricky Ponting. (Has it occurred to people that even Australians may not like kicking people in the family jewels when they are down and totally useless?)
  • Yadav owes his wickets to Ishant, who could be getting those Yadav wickets if only he was bowling differently such as bowling “the ball that got Ricky Ponting’s edge when it held its line four years ago” (that spell again!)

And today with Daniel Brettig with the amazing line, “Ishant Sharma has been a man more sinned against than sinning almost all tour“. Sinned against? By whom? Australia not willing to gift their wickets? Indian fielders not at the positions where the ball is being hit? The umpires not willing to say okay to his appeals? God not answering Ishant’s prayers?

It is time for Ishant to go. He is only 23. If he has talent, he has more than enough time to make a comeback. If not, better for India and some other aspiring fast bowler.

Why is India Losing?

Ducking Beamers wonders why this (6 consecutive overseas losses) is happening to India. So here goes:

  1. Of the 6 defeats, India could have legitimately won two (the second Test against England and the first against Australia) and perhaps drawn the third ( the first Test against England). So, instead of 0-6, we could have had a 2-3 record which would not have been so bad.
  2. Playing abroad is always tough. Australia has been the graveyard for most teams, and although they were beaten badly by England, they are on the resurgence with a series win in Sri Lanka and coming back to square the series in South Africa. And England were, of course, going to be tough opponents after their success in Australia.
  3. Since India had played (and won) many Tests at home, including against Australia (4 tests out of 6), our expectations were raised higher than usual. Added to this was winning the ODI World Cup, which has nothing to do with the Test team.
  4. India really performed well against Australia only in 2003. The 2008 series could have been worse, but the umpiring and Australia’s behavior in the Sydney Test motivated India to come back strongly. And as people have pointed out, Australia’s bowling did not have Warne or McGrath.

I am not sure if this sounds like excuse making and a whitewash should have been expected. To the contrary, I think what it shows is that a whitewash is not an accurate indication of what this team could have achieved and what the gap between India and her opponents are. But at the same time, it is also remarkable that after a good competitive start, the team has gone into full-blooded surrender mode instead of trying to make a strong comeback (such as the West Indies). The best example of this is Sehwag’s swish that landed him a pair in the 3rd Test against England, but you can find quite a few other examples.

An aside: I see that Mike Hussey still remembers Ishant’s spell to Ponting from all those years back.

It was probably the birth of Ishant Sharma, who bowled unbelievably well in that Test match. I remember a spell to Ricky Ponting, which was just phenomenal bowling.

What is amazing is that apart from the West Indies tour, Ishant has nothing to show for himself after all this time and he is still in the team. A 40+ average in every country other than India, West Indies and Bangladesh does not sound very good for a fast bowler.

Year 2011 in Review

As 2011 winds down to a close tomorrow, let me go over some of the major happenings this year.

India’s World Cup Win

Teams have up and down years, but whatever happened during the rest of the year, winning the World Cup is forever. After more than a generation, India lifted the World Cup again! Sweet memories for those who had seen the 1983 win and a first-time glorious moment for those who had not. It was a fitting tribute to Sachin Tendulkar in his last World Cup. For those who doubted India could do it (that includes me), Dhoni’s India peaked at the right time after wobbles against England and South Africa. After India’s campaign, the best memories of the World Cup were Ireland’s incredible win against England and the guaranteed (but maybe won’t happen this time) South African choke.

England as No. 1 Test Team

England have always been underrated as a cricket team because of their abysmal ODI form, but I never imagined that they would reach the No. 1 Test ranking after beating both Australia (3-1) and India (4-0) to a pulp. I am now amazed that Sri Lanka only lost 0-1 in a 3-Test series and that after a freak third innings collapse.

The Rise and Fall of Mahendra Singh Dhoni

Around the mid-point of this year, Dhoni was on top of the world. Under him, India had won the T20 World Cup, the ODI World Cup (with Dhoni hitting the winning six) and the #1 Test Team ranking. He captained his IPL team Chennai Super Kings to two IPL championships and the Champions League Trophy. Then hiccups as India failed to win two Test matches in West Indies that they could have and should have won. And a full-blown disaster as India got wiped out in England, failing to win a single match and losing their Test top spot. Then CSK crashed out early in the 2011 Champions League. After gaining back some ground with a trashing of England in home ODIs and an almost whitewash of the West Indies, things seem to have slid back with a defeat to Australia in the final Test of the year. Dhoni seems human, after all.

Pakistan’s Incredible Year

Q at WellPitched can explain this much better than I do.

Bangladesh’s Terrible Year

Name the only team (including Zimbabwe) to have not won a single Test this year. There is no excuse for Bangladesh having Test status when teams like Ireland are out. All bravado and no result, despite having a few talented players.

Zimbabwe’s Return

Won their first Test on return. Made New Zealand sweat for a win. Zimbabwe is a country with a deep cricket tradition. And these are good signs for the long-term.

South Africa Throwing Series Leads

South Africa continues to throw away series leads after owning the opposition (India, Australia and Sri Lanka). Seriously, how do you look at yourself in the mirror after losing to the opposition one Test after bowling them out for 47 or winning by an innings? South Africa reminds me of the navigator in the boat race asking his team members to slow down because he never thought they would be in front and so hadn’t studied the map.

Miscellaneous

Yes, please don’t say Test cricket is still alive. We get it: You love Test cricket like cats love fish or something like that. On the other hand, I cannot remember many ODIs (other than those in the World Cup) or T20s. Some of the Test matches were suspiciously good. And by that, I mean only three players went to jail.

Happy New Year! And hope you don’t have a long wait to see Tendulkar’s 100th century.

 

The Revenge Series Is Going Well

India secure the return ODI series with a win and now lead by 3-0. Dhoni is leading the rout with another unbeaten innings. Although today’s match was close, with 5 wickets in hand towards the end, it was going to be very tough for England to win. And unless they are able to make significant improvements all around, it looks to be a 0-5 rout.

Which would have been great for India if the ODI series had been coupled with a Test series. Unfortunately, it is going to be another year before England tour India, and much of this would have been forgotten. England, on its part, are going to have tough times before then, playing Pakistan and Sri Lanka. And most likely would have lost their No. 1 ranking by then. India, also, have a tough tour of Australia coming up. Therefore, the next Test series may not be the battle at the top that we saw with the India tour of England.

Anyway, be that may, it is a welcome turnaround of fortunes for MS Dhoni. After the miserable England tour, Dhoni had another terrible tournament, the Champions League, where his team, Chennai Super Kings, ended up at the bottom of the league. And people have been talking about the end of his Midas Touch. That would not be a good thing for India, but hopefully that is not the case, and the last few months have been just a deviation from the norm.

India Does Not Have a Fast Bowling Problem

Karthikeya Date at a Cricketing View has a couple of posts bemoaning the lack of fast bowlers in the Indian lineup and attributes it as the reason for the recent England series loss. I am not convinced for a variety of reasons, especially with statements like this that apparently seems to be a problem because of the lack of fast bowlers:

India did not win a Test Match outside the sub-continent between 1986 and 2001.

There are 3 main lines of arguments against this. First is anecdotal: In the past, when you have read about India’s struggles in Tests abroad, what was the first criticism you have heard? As far as I can remember, the primary analysis has usually been “Indian batsmen do not know how to handle fast bowling because they are not used to pitches that favor bowlers“. It has rarely been “Indian fast bowlers were ineffective“.

The second is what if you use the argument for some country, say Australia playing in India. Since 1970, Australia has won a total of 4 Tests and lost 12 Tests out of 26 Tests in India. That is a staggeringly bad record. What do people advocate for Australia? Do they say that Australia needs to bring better fast bowlers? Or they should have better spinners (better than Shane Warne with an average of 43 per wicket)? No, it is taken for granted that Indians are very good at batting on their pitches and they are really good at handling spin. The problem has been Australians unable to cope with the subcontinent.

The last is looking at the record between 1986 and 2001. India actually only played 38 Tests in these 15 years outside the subcontinent – 9 against the West Indies, 8 vs Australia, 7 vs South Africa, 6 vs NZ, 6 v England, and 2 vs Zimbabwe. We lost 18 Tests out of 38, but 7 came in Australia, 3 early in the period against a still strong West Indies and 3 against South Africa. We lost twice against NZ and England.

In general, that points to the relative strengths of the teams. Beating Australia in Australia was not easy and so it turned out. During the same period, Australia was also decimating other teams and running up record consecutive Test wins. One exception also shows the rule. This was the infamous 38-run loss to the West Indies, India being bundled out for 81 while chasing 120 runs.

What does this have to do with fast bowling? One point is that it is easier to explain India’s lack of success by simply looking at the overall team strength and also factor in the usual home advantage. A 1-0 loss in 4 Tests against a newly admitted South Africa in 1992 and a 2-0 in 3 Tests against a more experienced side is fully explained by that theory. Conversely against a West Indies that had the opposite trajectory in form, we have the 3-0 in 4 Tests in 1989, but only 1-0 in 5 Tests in 1997. And solitary losses to England in two 3-Test series.

But there is another factor also. If you look at some Tests in detail, you will find that surprisingly the bowling was a small factor in India’s fortunes. The 1991/92 Australia series is a great example. India went to Australia with the “strongest batting line up ever”. But what ended up happening is that India crossed 300 only twice in 5 Tests and were bowled out for scores such as 141 and 156. The batting average for the series was 23. And that does not even show the true picture because several times, the lower order especially Kapil Dev boosted the scores. The Indian bowling was not that great, but they did not allow Australia to cross 350 in any of their first innings. If the batting had been a little better, perhaps the final scoreline may have been different. The batting in the next away series against Australia was no better, with India thrice bowled out for less than 200.

It is taken as a fact that better batting does not win matches and you need 20 wickets to win matches and therefore you need bowlers to perform. But it is also true that bowlers need a total to defend as they try to buy wickets with runs, enticing batsmen to take risks. India’s poor batting abroad has often put bowlers in a bad position. So the blame should not solely fall on the bowlers.

The Cricket Thing to Do is to Perform Well Regardless of Ranking

Mahek takes a look at how the ICC calculates Test rankings:

it’s quite clear that there is no extra weightage for away wins (or home losses). This means that if a team plays a dispropotionate amount of cricket at home, it can go up the rankings. [...]
Also, the rankings don’t take into account the margin of victory/defeat. As far as they’re concerned, a 1-run win is just as good as a win by an innings and 400 runs. Similarly, a draw with both teams scoring an equal number of runs is the same as a draw in which a team was 1 wicket away from an innings defeat. [...]
I guess what I’m trying to say is there is way too much talk of ratings & rankings when all teams and fans should be worried about is their team trying to win every test they play. It doesn’t matter if you’re ranked 1 or 10, if you pull out of a chase with 15 overs to bat/bowl just because you’re tired or think it’s impossible to score 6 an over you’re cheating the fans of a proper result.

I have written before about the difficulty in determining the order of the superiority of the cricket teams. There are so many factors (victory margins, dead rubber matches, luck, weather and team changes) involved that you cannot make an accurate judgment. Of course, some things are beyond doubt, for example, that England is better than Bangladesh, but it is not clear whether Pakistan or New Zealand is a better team today. Trying to establish a fool-proof methodology is in itself foolish.

But all things considered, if we accord meaning to the Test rankings by the ICC, then everyone has to play by the ICC’s rules. So if Zimbabwe wants to be the #1 team in the world, then they need to earn the points under that framework. Also, you are allowed to celebrate when your team becomes #1, but you are not allowed to complain when another team achieves it under the same rules.

So, for India, if they think the #1 ranking is important, they can go play and earn the points to get it back. If they don’t believe that, that is fine too. But what is not negotiable is that India should go and not perform. As an Indian cricket fan, I want to see Dhoni and Co. go beat all the teams out there. If that makes a difference to their rankings, that is a bonus. But the important thing is playing well and trying to win, if not actually winning.

Sports Players Get Criticized for Failure, Sometimes Unfairly

It is amazing how much upset some Indian fans are over the disapproval and judgments of the media of the Indian cricket team’s poor performance on this England tour. Take this long post by Mars at the Corridor of Certainty.

I’m heartbroken, hurt and upset. The reasons are summed up in this beautiful post by Sriram. I would’ve preferred to be hurt and to cope up with time, to not be angry. However, the English press, ex-cricketers and our are very own journalists (who shift sides faster than a chameleon can change its colors) have ensured that I cannot mourn this loss and have left me nothing but angry.

You expect a rational take on this debacle but all you get tripe to read on what is considered by many the No1 cricket reporting website in the world.

Newflash, people: Cricket columnists are not out there to present carefully balanced arguments based on reason. They are there to sell newspapers or bring more eyeballs. So the more extreme the argument, the better the result. Now, if some people want to be left alone to grieve, they need to stop visiting such websites. For those looking for closure and catharsis, maybe the hyperbole may even serve an useful purpose.

But Mars, to make a point, then decides to dig up the stats and show that hey, India is a much better Test team than England in all respects – better Test and series results overseas, versus Australia, versus South Africa, versus West Indies, versus Pakistan and Sri Lanka and the minnows. There is just one small problem: All the figures have been aggregated from 2003. Why 2003? Why not 2000? Or why not the last 10 years or last 5 years?

Here are the links to the series results for India and England for all their Test history. Look at England around 2000 A.D. Notice a couple of entries where England went to Pakistan and Sri Lanka and won? Also look at India’s record in the same time where India went to Zimbabwe (drawn series), Sri Lanka (lost), South Africa (lost), West Indies (lost), and New Zealand (lost). Once you cross into 2003, the picture looks much better with Ganguly leading India to 1-1 series draw in Australia and then India winning several series. If Mars wants to be intellectually honest, this should be mentioned.

But even otherwise, using such a long period is problematic. Which is that teams change as players go out and new players come in. Coaches and managers change. The team culture changes. If I were to take the period from 2003 to present, it would perhaps show Australia as the best team. But an Australian team without Warne, McGrath, Gilchrist and Hayden (among others) is the one playing today and which lost 0-2 away to India and got trounced at home 1-3 by England.

I think it would be helpful if people understand a few things:

  • India reached the No. 1 spot through a few improved performances at home and abroad and the poor performances of Australia at the same time to England, South Africa and India. India had few crushing series victories and she played it safe instead of earning a few more wins with some risks taken.
  • India has yet to win a Test series in Australia and South Africa. The last time India beat anyone 3-0 was way back in 1993/94 against Sri Lanka at home. One would expect that the team would grow in confidence as time went on, become stronger and have better Test results. That was the trajectory of the great teams. India didn’t seem to have such a plan.
  • The short-term future prospects of India are uncertain with the pending retirement of the Big Three and the relative lack of depth in the bowling department.

It may be useful for India to treat its short stay at No. 1 as a temporary high followed by a setback that will allow it to rebuild and establish a much better foundation. Look no further than England. England winning the 2005 Ashes was a false dawn with many aging and injured players. In the last couple of years, they have come back successfully with a group of talented cricketers who have several years in front of them.

Indian Cricket Fans Battle It Out

Achettup has a ferocious post at Bored Cricket, castigating fans and media who had the temerity to diss India after “just” three poor Tests against England. It is a good rant mixing “shoot the messenger” spice with sour grapes. I kinda sorta agree with him on a broader perspective, i.e., this has been one bad performance after many accomplishments by the Indian team. But on the specifics, he gets many things wrong. So here is what I have to say about that:

  1. Is it so surprising to see fans and media angry after losing 3 consecutive Tests against the same opposition, especially as the performances have grown worse as the tour progressed? This was supposed to be a closely fought series for the No. 1 Test spot and what did we get? Mostly a rout. And the Indian fans are supposed to be happy about that?
  2. India were happy to proclaim themselves No. 1 in Test cricket. It was a big deal! In 2009 when Tests were already in decline and Twenty20 was all the rage. Now, when we have lost the top spot, that is when Tests have become irrelevant? Test cricket is dying now? It was in good health two years ago or even two months ago?
  3. OK, maybe that was Achettup’s way of illustrating how you can come up with a bad argument quickly. But in the comments, he states that similar reactions after the 2007 ODI WC ended up with India winning the T20 World Cup. So shouldn’t that mean that complaining leads to results and not complaining leads to what?
  4. These complaints did not start yesterday. Many of the criticisms have been made for months now and they have only been noticed because more people have joined in and so gotten louder.

Let us look at those criticisms from the past. Correct me if I am wrong.

Tour planning: This has been true for some time now. We have lost or found difficult the first Test in many away series (in Australia, South Africa, Sri Lanka and England). This has been a pattern, discussed repeatedly by fans and whoever responsible for scheduling tours should have taken this into account. Also, backup bowlers not having visas?

Old greats need to be phased out: Once again, this has been discussed for years. With Sachin and Dravid at 38 years old and Laxman at 36 years, it opens up a huge void in the middle order. They are not responsible for the current series loss (and people should not bring it up in that context), but what happens in the future? The fact that Dravid was added to the ODI team speaks volumes about the lack of planning in this regard.

India’s Test record: It has been good, but not great. We did beat Australia 2-0 at home, but that have easily been 1-1. 1-0 away wins against New Zealand, Sri Lanka and West Indies. A drawn away series against South Africa. Good accomplishments that has improved India’s record incrementally, but no dominating stuff there. The 0-3 now is a big step backward from our previous series win in England.

Dhoni’s captaincy: In general, Dhoni has delivered both at international and club level as captain. But he has made some strange moves as well as timid ones. Start with the failure to chase a gettable target against West Indies. Then a failure to go for the kill against England during the few moments they were in trouble. Ishant not bowling, Dhoni bowling! Failure to stop the run glut. Along with his relative performance against Prior in the first two Tests, Dhoni has been one factor in India’s loss. Of course, we don’t have a successor waiting in the wings. So all this criticism of Dhoni is wasted.

Update to Surprising Fact of the Day

A few weeks back, I had linked to Cricinfo’s stats article about captaincy records, showing how Dhoni had the best win-loss ratio among captains who have lead their team in at least 25 Tests. Well, after where we stand now (with 3-0) in the series, things have changed a bit. And here we are:

Dhoni 30 matches, 15 w, 6 l, 9 d. W/L ratio = 2.50
Strauss  38 matches, 20 w, 5 l, 13 d, W/L ratio = 4.00

Unless Dhoni wins 12 more matches without additional losses, he will not overtake Steve Waugh. However, he still has a splendid home record (10:1) though the best seems to be Mike Brearley (12:0). I don’t think Strauss’s ratio will stand after a few trips to the sub-continent, but for the moment, it is his run.

In general, the way the series has progressed, it is as if England were the team under-prepared for the first Test, as they only won by 196 runs on the final day. With more of the England team members finding form, what is in store for the last Test? In the 3rd Test, Cook who was missing in action found form and how! I guess the only person remaining is Swann.

Strangely, unlike many commentators, I find myself quite calm at India’s defeat. Many have found excuses and others have found various actions of India to blame. But if you take a step back and look at the big picture, India as a collective unit has been outclassed by England. You can quibble about lack of preparation or Sehwag’s brainless batting, but ultimately the gap between the two teams kept growing as the series went on.

I would relate this to another series played by India, long back in the early 1990s against Australia just before the 1992 World Cup, which India lost 0-4. That Indian team was supposed to be the best batting lineup in the world. It had a lot of superstars too. But in the Test series, the team batting performances were abysmal. There were a few gems (including from Tendulkar and Azharuddin), but time and again, it was the lower order that lent respectability to the scorecard.

Something similar happened on this tour. Everybody knew that India’s bowling was not that great, but we all expected great things from the batsmen. Unfortunately apart from Dravid, there hasn’t been much. We don’t know what the English team’s tactics are, but planned or not, they have been able to target the Indian lineup successfully. And that has made all the difference.

Also, I was very wrong. As always with my predictions about any England series.

Duncan Fletcher Presiding Over India’s Demise?

Dileep Premachandran has some good points to make here:

How do you succeed someone who could walk on water? That might be a question that Duncan Fletcher asks himself on dark nights as India lurch from one mishap to another on this tour. Gary Kirsten left the coaching job at the perfect time – with India ranked No.1 in the Test arena and 50-over World Cup winners. The only way was down, especially with the nucleus of the batting the wrong side of 30 and the bowling so reliant on an injury-prone individual who turns 33 in October.

Captains also have the same problem. As I have written several times, Ricky Ponting’s tragedy is that he happened to be the captain at a time of declining Australian fortunes and will forever be remembered as the captain that lost the Ashes thrice.

But is India in such dire straits? After all, these gloomy predictions are being made in the context of India’s failures in the first two Tests against England. But it needs to be remembered that England are not a poor Test side! Under Andrew Strauss, they have had 19 wins to 5 losses (compared to 15/5 for Dhoni) with two of those series against Australia home and away, and an away series against South Africa. This was a tough tour. People forgot that.

I think England’s sustained failures in limited overs cricket is partly to blame for this lack of respect for the Test side. While their matches in the World Cup were entertaining, no one in the right minds thought that England could be winners and rightly so, as they crashed out in the Quarter-finals. Whereas an opposition like Australia or South Africa is strong in all 3 formats, England’s pushover status in limited overs makes a Test series against them seem easier than it actually is.

As for India, yes, Laxman, Dravid and Tendulkar are on their way out. But all three are in good form and they are (for the most part) playing only in Tests. So prediction – I am assuming that they will be there at least until early to mid-2013 when India hosts Australia for four Tests. Tendulkar turns 40 (forty, gulp!) in April – a good time to call it quits and against his best opponent? Laxman too, even though he is two years younger.

What about replacements? A possible batting order would be Sehwag, Gambhir, Virat Kohli, [somebody], Yuvraj Singh, Suresh Raina and Dhoni. The [somebody] is the person who will replace Tendulkar (please God, not Rohit Sharma!) and I am not sure who that can be in the middle order. But apart from that, it is a competent batting lineup and should deliver good results against most teams. The idea, of course, should be to build a better base in the meantime.