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Is Bangalore the Biggest Surprise of the IPL?

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After losing four matches in succession, Bangalore are back with a bang. They crushed Mumbai by 9 wickets in a tremendous performance. The IPL has been turned on its head after the upsets of the last few days. Let’s take a quick look at the projections:

Team        M-W-D-L  P   P/M   FRR   ARR    NRR  Prob  Final

Delhi       6-4-0-2  8  1.33  8.12  8.04   0.08  8.79  16.79
Deccan      6-4-0-2  8  1.33  8.11  7.39   0.73  8.02  16.02
Chennai     7-3-1-3  7  1.00  8.31  7.37   0.94  7.02  14.02
Punjab      7-4-0-3  8  1.14  7.37  7.28   0.09  6.01  14.01

Bangalore   8-4-0-4  8  1.00  7.18  7.38  -0.20  5.97  13.97
Rajasthan   7-3-1-3  7  1.00  6.22  7.25  -1.03  6.83  13.83
Mumbai      7-3-1-3  7  1.00  7.68  6.91   0.76  5.87  12.87
Kolkata     8-1-1-6  3  0.38  6.62  7.80  -1.18  5.01   8.01

Mumbai go from projected No. 3 to projected No. 7 with this defeat. Partly, this is because there is very little separating those positions (just over a point). But it also shows how Mumbai wasted a great opportunity to pull ahead of the Middle Pack. Delhi and Deccan still sit comfortably at the top, though that could change if Chennai beat Deccan in the next match.

Notice how Kolkata’s predicted final points is getting lowered. This is because their match against Bangalore looks tougher now, while they have no remaining matches against Mumbai.

A few notes about the next 4 matches:

  • Both Chennai and Deccan have a chance to break out of the crowd if they win the next match. A loss is worse for Deccan as now they will be on the same level as the Middle Pack.
  • Punjab vs Rajasthan is important for both teams. Going by form, this is supposed to be one of Punjab’s easier matches and they should take the two points. Rajasthan are a point behind and they need to improve their batting and run rate.
  • A failure against Kolkata will hurt Delhi badly. Their final prediction will not change much with a win, as Kolkata’s poor form has already been taken into account. If Kolkata loses, they are out. End of story.

Bangalore have a few days to relax and take stock of how to take advantage of the momentum they have gained with this hat trick of victories.