Punjab do not deserve to be in the semifinals. But they can reach it if Deccan thrash Bangalore tomorrow by 70 runs. Alternatively, if Bangalore only score 120 runs in the first innings, and Deccan overtake that within 10 overs, then Bangalore is out and Punjab is in. Both are unlikely scenarios, but you never know. After all, who would have thunk that Punjab and Rajasthan playing their most important match would post scores around the 100 mark? Bangalore can choke too.

Delhi and Chennai have qualified and they are set to occupy spots No. 1 and No. 2. The winner of tomorrow’s match between Deccan and Bangalore will determine No. 3. If Deccan loses, they will be No. 4 and Punjab will lose out. There is no realistic scenario where Deccan can suffer a loss so terrrible that their NRR falls below Punjab. Not so for Bangalore who should try to win to be assured a place or ensure that they don’t lose to let Punjab in through the back door.

What could Bangalore do? On one level, it makes sense to field first so that Bangalore knows what target they have to pass to qualify for the semis. However, considering the collapse of the Kings XI and Royals batting lineups, this could be asking for trouble. It may be better to bat first, even if it means posting a small total and then putting pressure on the Deccan lineup so that they don’t overtake the score too quickly.

It also depends on what Deccan Chargers want to do. They have already beaten Bangalore once and lost twice to Punjab. They would be more inclined to eliminate Punjab by making it easy for Bangalore. Deccan will be fine with either No. 3 or No. 4 spot because there is not much to choose between Delhi and Chennai, both of whom have played excellently. Anyway, we will see. Remember, if Bangalore is losing by runs, they should keep it below the 70 run mark and if it is losing by wickets, it should keep it after the 10th over. (I don’t think the IPL organizer will allow them to lose before that anyway, so Bangalore should be even more safe batting first)

A word for Rajasthan, which has been the favorite team of this blog. They got their just deserts. Rajasthan’s batting has been a problem from Day One, when they were bowled out for 58. They won a few games with their bowling and some exceptional last over heroics. But the batting, except for a few sparks, kept failing. They end the IPL with a run rate of 6.67, the lowest of all teams. A few good bowling spells would only get them so far.

Today, if they had won their match, they would be in the semis because of Punjab’s loss. But against the worst team of this year’s IPL, they could not post a decent score. Thankfully, their bowling did not save their sorry performance. There will be a lot for Rajasthan to think about for next year. And it has to start with putting together a more rounded team.

We will save the Punjab’s eulogy for tomorrow. This IPL has a way of making a person eating their own words. So we will wait.

P.S. The Projections table is available on our website. There is not much guesswork with respect to the qualifications. But you may want to look at the likely final positions of the teams in the Points table.

When the excitement gets too high, it is time for some calm matches. Bangalore beat Delhi without much strain today. Things are much simpler for them now. If they beat Deccan in their last match, they are through. Same for Deccan. So the last match of the IPL has high stakes for both the teams concerned. So here is where we stand now:

Team        M-W-D-L    P   P/M   FRR   ARR    NRR  Prob  Final Chances

Delhi      13-9-0-4   18  1.38  7.62  7.37   0.25  1.15  19.15 100.00%
Chennai    13-7-1-5   15  1.15  8.37  7.43   0.93  0.92  15.92 100.00%
Deccan     13-7-0-6   14  1.08  7.73  7.46   0.27  0.92  14.92  74.07%
Bangalore  13-7-0-6   14  1.08  7.13  7.38  -0.25  0.92  14.92  62.96%

Punjab     13-7-0-6   14  1.08  7.33  7.75  -0.42  0.85  14.85  48.15%
Rajasthan  13-6-1-6   13  1.00  6.81  7.17  -0.36  1.62  14.62  14.81%
Mumbai     13-6-1-6   11  0.85  7.33  6.93   0.40  0.62  11.62   0.00%
Kolkata    13-2-1-10   5  0.38  7.22  8.11  -0.89  1.00   6.00   0.00%

One important change to the projections is that we are now considering what happens if the matches are rained out. So although Deccan and Bangalore are neck-and-neck, Deccan has the edge because of its better NRR. If rain washes out their match, Bangalore should want Punjab and Rajasthan to have lost their last match. Punjab and Rajasthan are poorly situated partly because of their poor NRR.

So, here is what each team has to do:

• Delhi does not have do anything since they are already qualified. But they would do well to win the last game to gain some momentum before the semis.
• Chennai is also through to the semis. But winning will make a difference between being No. 2 and No. 4. Plus, they can help their last year co-finalists Rajasthan if they beat Punjab.
• Deccan has to beat Bangalore or hope both Punjab and Rajasthan lose their last match.
• Bangalore has to beat Deccan or hope both Punjab and Rajasthan lose their last match. Bangalore has to be careful to avoid losing so badly that its NRR falls below Punjab.
• Punjab has to beat Chennai. Or it can hope that Rajasthan lose to Kolkata and that Deccan beat Bangalore by enough to push the latter’s NRR below Punjab.
• Rajasthan has to beat Kolkata and hope that Chennai beats Punjab.
• Nothing much for Mumbai to do except upset Delhi’s preparations for the semi-finals.
• Kolkata can thrash Rajasthan’s semi-final hopes with an upset win.

Here is what to watch out for tomorrow. Importantly, rain is predicted for Wednesday in Durban.

Rajasthan v Kolkata:

• If Kolkata wins, Rajasthan is knocked out of the IPL. Rajasthan ends up No. 6 or No. 7 depending on Mumbai’s performance in its last match.
• If Rajasthan wins, they will be rooting for Chennai to beat Punjab. Punjab must win against Chennai, otherwise it will be knocked out.
• If the game is washed away, Rajasthan is knocked out.

Chennai v Punjab: Before this match starts, Punjab will know if Rajasthan has won and if so, it is a do-or-die match for Punjab

• If Punjab wins, they will qualify for the semis. The winner of the match between Deccan and Bangalore will be the last semi-finalist.
• If Chennai wins, Chennai will be No. 2 in the Points Table. If Rajasthan had already won, Punjab is out of the tournament. Otherwise, Punjab will have to hope that Deccan thrash Bangalore by a considerable margin.
• If there is rain, Punjab will qualify as long as rain does not also affect Deccan-Bangalore match, in which case Punjab is out.

We should have a good idea about the fates of both Rajasthan and Punjab by the end of the day.

After 9 consecutive losses and 2 particularly nasty last-over failures, Kolkata Knight Riders finally make amends with a ginormous chase against IPL runners-up Chennai Super Kings. Glamour team Chennai thus suffers the ignominy of being the only team so far to lose to Kolkata in a full-fledged match. You will recall that Kolkata’s earlier victory against Kings XI Punjab came in a rain-affected match. Kolkata’s previous game against Chennai was washed out, which means that 3 out of Kolkata’s precious 5 points have come against Dhoni’s team.

Under normal circumstances, Chennai would be panicking, but they have already done enough to qualify for the semi-finals. But this loss will be troubling portents, creating a bad vibe before the semi-finals. Chennai would do well to reverse this by beating Punjab in its last match, which also helps Chennai avoid a match-up with Delhi before the finals. The only good news for Chennai in this match is that they were able to post a huge total without any contribution from Matthew Hayden who was rested.

The result of this match (like the forthcoming Delhi v Mumbai match) has no bearing on semi-final chances of the rest of the teams, but Rajasthan will be worrying a bit. It has to win against Kolkata to have any chance of reaching the semis, but Kolkata suddenly seem formidable. On the other hand, having won their “pride” match, Kolkata could be easy pickings. Rajasthan only has to win against Kolkata as it cannot hope to overtake Chennai on NRR in any real-world scenario. In fact, Rajasthan would rather Chennai regroup and beat Punjab in its last outing. A Rajasthan win coupled with a Punjab loss means that Rajasthan are through.

Tomorrow’s match between Delhi and Bangalore is only important for Bangalore. Delhi has not only qualified, but will end up as No. 1 in the Points Table. So Bangalore may be able to pull a win against a Delhi which would likely be resting a few players. But, it may also happen that Sehwag and Gambhir try to strike form. A loss will not eliminate Bangalore immediately, but it will once Rajasthan beats Kolkata on Wednesday.

So four big matches coming up. By the end of Wednesday, we should know the fates of some more teams. See the projections table below. Details here. Our guide on what the teams need to do to qualify here:

Team        M-W-D-L    P   P/M   FRR   ARR    NRR  Prob  Final Chances

Delhi      12-9-0-3   18  1.45  7.70  7.39   0.31  1.15  20.15 100.00%
Chennai    13-7-1-5   15  1.15  8.37  7.43   0.93  0.92  15.92 100.00%
Deccan     13-7-0-6   14  1.08  7.73  7.46   0.27  1.00  15.00  75.00%
Punjab     13-7-0-6   14  1.08  7.33  7.75  -0.42  0.85  14.85  56.25%

Bangalore  12-6-0-6   12  1.00  7.13  7.44  -0.31  1.42  13.42  37.50%
Rajasthan  13-6-1-6   13  1.00  6.81  7.17  -0.36  1.62  14.62  31.25%
Mumbai     13-6-1-6   11  0.85  7.33  6.93   0.40  0.50  11.50   0.00%
Kolkata    13-2-1-10   5  0.38  7.22  8.11  -0.89  1.00   6.00   0.00%

Cricinfo says:

Chennai Super Kings, who surely looked set for a final four spot with their mammoth total batting first, will now have to put the celebrations on hold. [...] leaves Chennai with a crunch game against Kings XI Punjab that may yet decide their fate.

This is crazy talk. Chennai has already qualified for the semi-finals, as anyone with rudimentary mathematical skills would understand. So let us explain step-by-step.

1. Assume the worst case scenario. Chennai loses to Punjab. So Chennai ends up at 15 points. Punjab at 16 points.
2. Let us assume Delhi loses to Bangalore so that Bangalore gets a shot at the semifinals. Delhi still remain at the top with 18 or 20 points.
3. Now Bangalore and Deccan each have 14 points and their final match is against each other. Only one of them can have 16 points and thus overtake Chennai. Thus the final lineup will be Delhi, Punjab, Bangalore/Deccan and Chennai.
4. Let us have Rajasthan win the final game and reach 15 points. It will still be behind Chennai on NRR. Chennai has an NRR of 0.93 and Rajasthan -0.36, a difference of 1.29. That is practically impossible to overtake in a single match.
5. OK, let us consider the match between Bangalore and Deccan getting washed out and both ending up at 15 points. Still Chennai is ahead by NRR because of Deccan’s 0.27 and Bangalore’s -0.31. A rained-out match would mean that the NRR of both teams stay the same.

To understand how difficult it is to overtake Chennai’s NRR, consider this. If Chennai gets bowled out for 0 runs (yes, zero runs), they will still have a NRR of 0.28, which is STILL better than Deccan, Bangalore and Rajasthan. If Rajasthan hit 200 runs and then bowl their opposition out for 100 runs, their NRR will still be only 0.06.

Yes, it is humiliating for Chennai to be the only team to lose to Kolkata in a full match unaffected by rain. But self-respect is the only thing they lost today. They haven’t squandered their chance to the semis. And it is silly/disingenous for Cricinfo reporters to suggest otherwise.

Can I say weirder-er? This IPL gets stranger with every passing day. Delhi has just given Punjab a small lifeline and put everyone else’s semifinal chances in jeopardy. This was one of the worse matches of this tournament as first Delhi made one of the lowest scores this year and Punjab made a hash of their chase. Then Delhi with some inept fielding and poor bowling choices at the end handed it right back to Punjab. I guess only Rajasthan know how to bowl properly at the death (which has only compensated for their clumsy batting).

OK, a quick look at where the teams stand (details here):

Team        M-W-D-L   P   P/M   FRR   ARR    NRR  Prob  Final Chances

Delhi      11-8-0-3  16  1.45  7.72  7.45   0.28  3.00  19.00 100.00%
Chennai    11-6-1-4  13  1.18  8.31  7.24   1.07  3.90  16.90  85.94%
Deccan     11-6-0-5  12  1.09  7.78  7.49   0.29  3.82  15.82  68.16%
Rajasthan  12-6-1-5  13  1.08  6.81  7.14  -0.33  2.13  15.13  61.13%

Bangalore  12-6-0-6  12  1.00  7.13  7.44  -0.31  1.31  13.31  36.04%
Punjab     12-6-0-6  12  1.00  7.39  7.86  -0.47  1.73  13.73  29.10%
Mumbai     12-5-1-6  11  0.92  7.33  6.84   0.49  1.22  12.22  19.63%
Kolkata    11-1-1-9   3  0.27  6.90  7.94  -1.04  1.73   5.65   0.00%

Delhi are still very well-placed, but Punjab has depressed the chances for everyone else. The teams that have the most to worry about are Chennai and Deccan, who have matches against Punjab. A Punjab that still has semi-final hopes will be a much tougher opponent than one which is only fighting for pride. Chennai has two of these matches now: one against Mumbai and now another against Punjab. With only the sure points against Kolkata to cling to, Chennai finds itself a little more precariously placed than it was a few matches ago.

A look at the remaining matches:

Saturday:     Chennai v Mumbai,       Deccan v Kolkata
Sunday:       Deccan v Punjab,        Delhi v Rajasthan
Monday:       Chennai v Kolkata
Tuesday:      Delhi v Bangalore
Wednesday:    Kolkata v Rajasthan,    Chennai v Punjab
Thursday:     Delhi v Mumbai,         Bangalore v Deccan

All of a sudden, tomorrow’s match between Deccan and the Knight Riders assumes special significance. If Deccan loses that and plays the very next day against Punjab, it must win because otherwise Punjab will move ahead with only 1 game in hand. The only saving grace for the Chargers is that Punjab, with its slow chase today, has yet to pull its NRR out of the gutter. Rajasthan will want to beat Kolkata and want Chennai and Deccan to win their remaining matches.

NRR even point tie-ups: Deccan (0.29), Delhi (0.28), Bangalore (-0.31), Punjab (-0.47)
NRR odd point tie-ups: Chennai (1.07), Mumbai (0.49), Rajasthan (-0.33)

With only 2-3 matches each, the NRR will not change significantly. But Punjab is a little close to Bangalore, so their relative positions could switch. So too with Deccan and Delhi, though at this moment, that is more likely to affect who is No. 1 in the Points Table than deciding the semi-finalists. Rajasthan should win their matches, else there is a danger of Mumbai edging them on NRR.

Watch this space tomorrow after the matches. We will try to break out the possible results of all the remaining matches and see the ways in which each team can qualify.

Kolkata almost wrecked Bangalore’s slim chances of reaching the semi-finals when they posted a huge total of 173, but a stunning counter-attack by Ross Taylor ensured that Kolkata will end this IPL at the bottom of the Points Table. Even if they win their remaining matches, they will not overtake any other team. A fitting end to the most dysfunctional team in the tournament. They have nothing more to look forward, except stage an upset in one of their three remaining matches and cause a commotion among the other teams.

We talked yesterday about how important it was for Punjab to win the match against Mumbai, but apparently the Kings XI batsmen did not pay attention. After a great start by Sohal, they lost wickets at regular intervals and poked their way to 119. They made the same score against Mumbai last time around and won by 3 runs, but history would not repeat itself this time as Dwayne Bravo and Sachin Tendulkar took them to victory with almost four overs to spare.

A look at the Projections:

Team        M-W-D-L   P   P/M   FRR   ARR    NRR  Prob  Final Chances

Delhi       9-7-0-2  14  1.56  7.82  7.50   0.33  4.98  18.98  97.81%
Chennai    10-6-1-3  13  1.30  8.52  7.30   1.22  4.91  17.91  92.83%
Deccan     10-6-0-4  12  1.20  7.75  7.37   0.38  4.35  16.35  84.48%
Mumbai     11-5-1-5  11  1.00  7.34  6.80   0.54  2.14  13.14  48.88%

Rajasthan  11-5-1-5  11  1.00  6.76  7.13  -0.37  3.17  14.17  37.60%
Bangalore  11-5-0-6  10  0.91  7.16  7.53  -0.36  1.94  11.94  21.33%
Punjab     11-5-0-6  10  0.91  7.48  8.05  -0.57  1.94  11.94  17.07%
Kolkata    11-1-1-9   3  0.27  6.90  7.94  -1.04  2.50   5.50   0.00%

Some commentators will point out that only 4 points separate the top seven teams and hence anyone can still qualify. Let us put that to rest. Delhi, Chennai and Deccan are very well-positioned to reach the semis. The latter two each have a game against Kolkata and they should nail that. Then we come to the four teams at 11 and 10 points respectively. Since they have each played 11 games, it does seem like they have an equal chance of making the semis. Unfortunately, that is not the case.

First problem is that both Bangalore and Punjab have their 3 remaining matches against the group leaders Delhi, Deccan and Chennai. It is unlikely that they will win any of those matches. Maybe they may pull off 1-2 matches together tops. That means that the Top three teams are likely to qualify, leaving only one single spot.

Now Mumbai and Rajasthan have a game against each other. The winner reaches 13 points. This means Punjab & Bangalore need 2 more wins to overtake them. If that winner snatches another victory, Punjab & Bangalore have to win all their remaining matches – an incredibly difficult proposition. This is likely to be the case if Rajasthan beats Mumbai because Rajasthan has another match against Kolkata that they are sure to win.

The only way Punjab and Bangalore can win is for Mumbai to beat Rajasthan and then lose its remaining matches. Rajasthan will definitely beat Kolkata, so they need Delhi to beat Rajasthan. Punjab and Bangalore then need to win 2 of their 3 remaining games. That is why their chances of qualifying are at 21% and 17% respectively.

What about Net Run Rate? It will only decide tied points between Mumbai and Rajasthan (odd number of points), and between Punjab and Bangalore (even points). Mumbai has a big advantage over Rajasthan that will not be easy for Rajasthan to overcome in 3 matches. Bangalore and Punjab are closer, so each has to be careful about scoring runs faster.

Among all these teams, Rajasthan has the simplest route to the semi-finals. They need to beat Mumbai on Thursday and hold their match against Kolkata. Then they just need each of Mumbai, Punjab & Bangalore to lose one more match and they are through.

A look at the next 3 matches:

• Deccan v Delhi: Delhi will want to keep winning to sustain the momentum and ensure that they take the top spot, which will help them take on a weaker opponent in the semi-finals. Deccan can afford to lose as long as they win their next match against Kolkata.
• Bangalore v Chennai: Chennai has room for error. Bangalore does not. A defeat will practically end Bangalore’s hopes.
• Mumbai v Rajasthan: This is the biggie. Whoever wins is most likely to reach the semis. Mumbai can win this and lose the rest and still edge Rajasthan out on NRR. Rajasthan wins this and beats Kolkata – they are almost there.

Don’t miss the Mumbai-Rajasthan clash, because that is the most decisive match of the rest of the IPL.

After Rajasthan’s bowlers allowed Deccan Chargers to rush to a commanding 166/7, their batting order collapsed once again. It is amazing how Rajasthan is still in the running for a semi-final spot despite their pitiful batting lineup. There wasn’t much to cheer in Rajasthan’s performance. Swapnil Asnodkar made 44, but the pace at which he scored runs demands someone else to be playing at the top. There is a good case for trying out a different opening pair and pushing Graeme Smith down the order.

Deccan regained some of their mojo with this win. Their batting has been coming together with both Andrew Symonds and Dwayne Smith firing for them. Vaas, on his first match this season, made a good impression with the ball and Rohit Sharma continues his dream wicket-taking run. Suddenly, Deccan look like a fighting unit after all.

With this win, Deccan have considerably improved their chances of qualifying. Take a look at the Projections Table:

Team        M-W-D-L   P   P/M   FRR   ARR    NRR  Prob  Final Chances

Delhi       9-7-0-2  14  1.56  7.82  7.50   0.33  5.10  19.10  97.83%
Chennai    10-6-1-3  13  1.30  8.52  7.30   1.22  5.00  18.00  86.67%
Deccan     10-6-0-4  12  1.20  7.75  7.37   0.38  4.34  16.34  85.00%
Rajasthan  11-5-1-5  11  1.00  6.76  7.13  -0.37  3.24  14.24  43.66%

Punjab     10-5-0-5  10  1.00  7.66  8.11  -0.45  3.04  13.04  39.68%
Mumbai     10-4-1-5   9  0.90  7.33  6.90   0.44  3.14  12.14  34.29%
Bangalore  10-4-0-6   8  0.80  6.97  7.41  -0.44  3.64  11.64  12.88%
Kolkata    10-1-1-8   3  0.30  6.69  7.80  -1.11  3.70   6.70   0.00%

Deccan joins Delhi and Chennai in being favorites to qualify for the semi-finals. Battling it out for the last semi-final spot are Rajasthan, Punjab and Mumbai. Tomorrow’s match between Punjab and Mumbai is do-or-die. Let us consider the road ahead for these three teams:

• Rajasthan: Although Mumbai is a bigger foe for Rajasthan as they can be tied on points and Mumbai has a much better NRR, Rajasthan will want Mumbai to defeat its nearest rival Punjab. This will get both Rajasthan and Mumbai equal on points. If Rajasthan beats Mumbai in its next match, the Royals move ahead on points. Assuming both Rajasthan and Mumbai lose against Delhi, Rajasthan has the much easier game against Kolkata while Mumbai has to wrestle with in-form Chennai.
• Punjab: Their next matches after Mumbai are against the Top Three (Delhi, Deccan and Chennai). Can it get any worse? They must beat Mumbai and hope Mumbai beat Rajasthan. They would want Mumbai and Rajasthan to lose all their matches, but unfortunately Rajasthan has THAT game against Kolkata. So Punjab has to pull at least one upset in its last three games.
• Mumbai: Mumbai have to beat both Punjab and Rajasthan and pull an upset against Chennai or Delhi. That’s easy enough! One more loss and they are essentially out.

A lot rests on the two matches (Mumbai v Punjab and Mumbai v Rajasthan). Bangalore is the dark horse here, as they still have a mathematical chance if they win their remaining matches. If they lose to Kolkata tomorrow though, that will end Bangalore’s misery.

Here are the breakdowns of the qualifying chances (Note how none of the Top Four can end up in last place based on the simulations)

Team           1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th

Delhi       60.91%  21.15%  12.03%   3.74%   1.69%   0.45%   0.03%   0.00%
Chennai     18.73%  35.32%  18.89%  13.73%   7.74%   3.81%   1.79%   0.00%
Deccan      16.72%  23.64%  28.54%  16.10%   9.48%   3.98%   1.54%   0.00%
Rajasthan    1.27%   6.78%  13.17%  22.44%  22.42%  21.76%  12.16%   0.00%

Punjab       1.38%   6.89%  12.73%  18.67%  22.60%  19.53%  17.86%   0.34%
Mumbai       0.98%   5.08%  11.16%  17.06%  18.89%  22.54%  23.94%   0.34%
Bangalore    0.01%   1.15%   3.47%   8.25%  17.18%  27.54%  37.22%   5.18%
Kolkata      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.39%   5.47%  94.14%

Just because a team is down does not mean that you can take a match against them lightly. Bangalore Royal Challengers learnt this the hard way against the Mumbai Indians. Even without Sachin Tendulkar firing, Mumbai reached 157/2, which I felt was a very challenging target considering the great bowling talent that Mumbai has. This time, Mumbai did not try too many experiments in the field and restricted Bangalore to 141/7.

To reach the semis, Kolkata not only needed to win all its matches, but also have other matches follow a certain pattern. Delhi laid rest to all needless speculation about that by crushing Kolkata by 7 wickets. Kolkata not only have no chance to qualify, but have a 94% chance of ending up at the bottom of the Points Table when all the matches are over.

Delhi have almost qualified for the semis. With a 98% chance of qualifying, Delhi can even reach the semis without winning any of its remaining six matches. So like Kolkata, Delhi’s remaining matches will be more important for its opponents who need them more than Delhi or Kolkata. Take a look at the Projections Table:

Team        M-W-D-L   P   P/M   FRR   ARR    NRR  Prob  Final Chances

Delhi       9-7-0-2  14  1.56  7.82  7.50   0.33  5.09  19.09  98.20%
Chennai    10-6-1-3  13  1.30  8.52  7.30   1.22  5.00  18.00  86.89%
Deccan      9-5-0-4  10  1.11  7.69  7.56   0.12  5.24  15.24  67.73%
Rajasthan  10-5-1-4  11  1.10  6.89  7.00  -0.11  4.13  15.13  63.37%

Punjab     10-5-0-5  10  1.00  7.66  8.11  -0.45  3.13  13.13  38.22%
Mumbai     10-4-1-5   9  0.90  7.33  6.90   0.44  3.04  12.04  33.10%
Bangalore  10-4-0-6   8  0.80  6.97  7.41  -0.44  3.73  11.73  12.49%
Kolkata    10-1-1-8   3  0.30  6.69  7.80  -1.11  3.69   6.69   0.00%

Right now, the battle for the semi-final spots is mainly between Deccan, Rajasthan, Punjab and Mumbai. Chennai is not in any real danger because both Punjab and Mumbai would need 2 victories more than Chennai. Since they also have a match against each other, Chennai can close that door by winning any two of its remaining matches.

The next match, that between Deccan and Rajasthan, is extremely important for both teams, but particularly Rajasthan. If Rajasthan lose this, they will be in a very difficult spot, needing to win all their remaining matches. Mumbai’s win today has created problems for Rajasthan because Mumbai’s significantly better run rate means that Mumbai will edge ahead if both are tied on points.

Soon, we will also be discussing which team is likely to win the IPL. We have avoided that discussion because most teams have displayed inconsistent form. But at this moment, it is safe to say that Delhi and Chenni are the main contenders for the throne. They have the momentum. Their batting has been excellent and their bowling has started finding the necessary rhythm.

Knock-out matches are funny, though. You could top the Points Table and still lose in the semifinals or finals (remember New Zealand in the 1992 World Cup). Punjab, Rajasthan and Mumbai fall into this category – Punjab with its batting and the latter two with their sharp bowling. In the semifinals and finals, it is not past form, but the day’s performance that counts. But in terms of deserving to win the IPL crown, at this moment in the tournament, it is Delhi and Chennai.

P.S. Here are the breakdowns showing probability of reaching each position in the Points Table

Team           1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th

Delhi       68.14%  19.14%   8.26%   2.66%   1.48%   0.31%   0.01%   0.00%
Chennai     17.80%  34.03%  20.86%  14.20%   7.73%   3.83%   1.55%   0.00%
Deccan       4.79%  16.27%  24.59%  22.09%  16.49%   9.81%   5.70%   0.27%
Rajasthan    6.62%  16.71%  19.09%  20.94%  16.43%  13.64%   6.56%   0.00%

Punjab       1.38%   7.07%  12.55%  17.21%  22.66%  20.05%  18.73%   0.34%
Mumbai       1.26%   5.64%  11.18%  15.02%  18.47%  24.19%  23.90%   0.34%
Bangalore    0.01%   1.15%   3.46%   7.87%  16.72%  27.68%  37.93%   5.18%
Kolkata      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.49%   5.63%  93.87%

Until the League Phase of the Indian Premier League is over, the Points Table is a meaningless entity. Right now, Chennai is at the top of the table with 13 points. But Delhi has 12 points and has two games in hand. So who is the real leader? Who is likely to qualify? What will be the final rankings of all the teams.

To get a clearer picture, we have been bringing you the Projections Table that takes into account the remaining matches of each team and the difficulty of each of those matches based on the opponent’s form. So you can see that even though Bangalore, Mumbai and Kolkata have the same number of matches left, Bangalore is predicted to win more points than Mumbai and Kolkata. Delhi with more number of matches left is likely to gain 7 more points thus ending up at 7 points.

Team        M-W-D-L   P   P/M   FRR   ARR    NRR  Prob  Final Chances

Delhi       8-6-0-2  12  1.50  7.89  7.68   0.21  7.01  19.01  94.50%
Chennai    10-6-1-3  13  1.30  8.52  7.30   1.22  5.00  18.00  87.67%
Deccan      9-5-0-4  10  1.11  7.69  7.56   0.12  5.18  15.18  67.66%
Rajasthan  10-5-1-4  11  1.10  6.89  7.00  -0.11  4.50  15.50  64.57%

Punjab     10-5-0-5  10  1.00  7.66  8.11  -0.45  3.53  13.53  36.99%
Bangalore   9-4-0-5   8  0.89  6.97  7.36  -0.40  5.20  13.20  27.67%
Mumbai      9-3-1-5   7  0.78  7.27  6.88   0.39  4.21  11.21  20.87%
Kolkata     9-1-1-7   3  0.33  6.76  7.86  -1.10  3.92   6.92   0.07%

The last column shows the probability of each team getting through to the semi-finals based on the simulation of the possible results in the remaining matches. This takes NRR into account, but does not use current form, because doing so would skew the results further in the favor of the group leaders. Why do we need such a column?

Well, the problem right now for the lagging teams is that their place in the semifinals is not fully in their control. For example, Kolkata can no longer hope to advance to the semis by simply winning all their remaining matches. They need at least 4 other teams to avoid passing 13 points or only reaching it with a worse run rate than them. On the other hand, Chennai can lose every single match and still qualify for the semifinals.

Even with their losses today, Deccan and Rajasthan are still sitting pretty. Deccan have an extra game and Rajasthan have an extra point. One of these will be squandered because the next game is between two teams. At that point, Punjab can put themselves in a good spot by beating Mumbai and leaping over the losers of the Deccan-Rajasthan match.

Here’s the breakdown of the simulations by table positions:

Team           1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th

Delhi       54.53%  22.42%  11.54%   6.01%   3.63%   1.29%   0.56%   0.02%
Chennai     24.19%  31.16%  18.71%  13.61%   6.92%   3.77%   1.61%   0.03%
Deccan       7.32%  16.18%  23.43%  20.73%  15.72%  10.67%   5.18%   0.78%
Rajasthan    9.40%  15.98%  18.76%  20.42%  15.22%  13.16%   6.82%   0.23%

Punjab       2.23%   6.58%  11.99%  16.18%  22.33%  23.56%  15.87%   1.27%
Bangalore    1.26%   4.46%   8.29%  13.66%  21.30%  24.28%  20.98%   5.76%
Mumbai       1.07%   3.20%   7.28%   9.32%  14.05%  20.73%  39.38%   4.97%
Kolkata      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   0.83%   2.55%   9.61%  86.94%

The above table is ordered by the projection of the final rankings.