Teams fight against each other to win Test and ODI series, but there are other competitions going on, especially in the individual record space. One of these is who will remain on the Mount Everest of cricket, i.e., who will score the most runs and most 100s. Currently, Tendulkar leads both charts with almost 12.5 K runs and 41 centuries. Here is a table of his nearest active competition and how younger they are when compared to Tendulkar.

Ponting, Dravid and Kallis are within striking distance of Tendulkar (surprisingly, they have played almost the exact number of Tests). We can eliminate Dravid as he is 4 months older than Tendulkar and presumably will retire earlier. He will also play the same number of matches as Tendulkar, unless Tendulkar has a sustained poor run of form and is dropped while Dravid keeps playing. At this moment, that does not seem very likely. Apart from form, the Board will have to deal with angry public opinion if Tendulkar is ever dropped. Not gonna happen!

Ponting and Kallis have roughly the same shot at overtaking Tendulkar. If  they all retire at the same age as Tendulkar retires, they will have 1.6 and 2.5 years respectively to overtake his total which would be around 2000 runs more. In fact, they may have more time because if they are really close to Tendulkar, they may stick around for a year or so longer. If they maintain their current average, they would need roughly 20-25 Tests to overtake Tendulkar. Last year, the big teams played 12-15 Tests. So it is definitely achievable.

So the main questions are: Will Ponting and Kallis maintain their batting towards the end of their career, or will they have a sudden end like Hayden? Both of them have fallen from their previous near-60 averages and are nowhere near hitting the 1000 runs per year they used to. Ponting has more room here, because a winning Australia will help him retain his place on the basis of captaincy. With the victory in SA, he is back at the top again. Kallis has only his batting form to fall back upon.

The success of Twenty20 may disrupt some of these calculations. More international T20 and ODI matches mean less time for Tests. Nowadays, Test series are down from 5 and 6 Test series to 2 and 3 Test series. IPL and other local T20 tournaments can reduce the incentive of players to continue playing Tests. Injuries are more problematic at older ages. Here, Ponting is worse off. Being the captain, he is forced to be active in all the three forms of the game, whereas Kallis could end his ODI commitment earlier. Tendulkar has already quit T20 and only plays some of India’s ODI matches – he may be saving himself for Tests and one last World Cup.

That being said, last year proves that teams can play several Tests in one year. Australia and South Africa are popular teams and, like the popular kids in school, get to play with every one. Both Ponting and Kallis are exceptionally talented and can raise their game, and their cricket boards will accommodate their desire to hit a target more than other players. In any case, Ponting has a real chance of catching up to Tendulkar’s century count. He is just 4 behind. Unless Tendulkar has a spectacular year, that record is Ponting’s for the taking.

Chanderpaul, too, can be eliminated. He is too far behind, even if he has been racking up huge scores and crossed the 50-barrier recently. It is surprising that he has even scored so many runs after playing so low down the order. Jayawardene is another story. 4 years to hit 4000 runs. Possible, especially with Sri Lanka’s schedule leading them to more matches with the low-ranked Test teams. Whether Jayawardene’s appetite will be enough is a bigger question. Resigning the captaincy after the India defeat showed that he does not have the stomach for handling adversity.