Dhoni’s Misfortune Continues

I was not intending to post much on the Champions League. For some reason, it doesn’t seem as compelling as the IPL. But they had a few interesting games, especially the one between Chennai Super Kings and Mumbai Indians, where the latter seemed all at sea until some lusty hitting by Lasith Malinga in the last few overs took Mumbai past the finish line.

When the tour from hell ended for India in England where they failed to win every single international match, I thought the nightmare was over for Mahendra Singh Dhoni. It was the only major aberration in a spectacularly successful captaincy career. So perhaps he would get back to India and then captain CSK to the Champions League trophy and set everything back on track again. And then beat England in the return ODI series and so on.

But things don’t seem to be going according to plan back in heaven. Chennai lost their first home game of the season. And Dhoni missed a stumping of the eventual match-winner Malinga at a crucial time in the match. In the England series, there were times when India had the upper hand, but failed to take advantage. The story seems to be repeating.

Hopefully, this is not the start of a trend. CSK did show good form throughout the match and they should be able to take it and win the next few to reach the semis. Mike Hussey has been able to carry on the good form in the Sri Lanka test series to the Twenty20 match. As long as Chennai can win the next few, …

Hughes and Hussey

Given Watson’s half-century in the first innings, Hughes may find himself out of the team for a while. And in the whole scheme of things, I don’t think this is a good thing for Australia. First, it is sure to derail a career that was just getting started. Hughes has really failed in only one Test and that too via some dodgy umpiring decisions. In the last tour match, he actually outscored Watson (68 vs 50), but apparently the Australian management had already made their decision.

But as long as people are going to be making such decisions on form, why not drop Michael Hussey while you are at it? Q raised this issue, but I thought I would illustrate it with some graphs.

First, his average after each innings. Notice the relentless march southwards (since January 2008)

hussey-average-after-each-innings

Exhibit B: His 5-innings rolling average – It has been a long time since he has sustained a good run of form. A good score is invariably followed by a poor score or a duck (several in the last few matches)

hussey-rolling-average

Exhibit C: His actual scores during this period – Notice the clear difference between the first half and the second half.

hussey-scores

Hughes is unfortunate to have been a new entrant to the team. Even after scoring tons of runs in South Africa, he has been dropped despite the existence of someone who has been displaying a far worse run of form. But if Australia recognize that Hussey (out for a golden duck today) is a worse liability for the team, Hughes can make a comeback.

End of the Mystery Spinner?

Rangana Herath’s 5-wicket haul in the last Pakistani innings of this series, while expensive, will mean a longer absence for Ajantha Mendis from the Sri Lankan team. Unless Sri Lanka plans to field three spinners in a Test, it will be Herath who will accompany Murali in the upcoming Tests. This is a stunning setback to the career of Mendis, who was flying high throughout last year.

2009 has been cruel to Mendis. Compare his stats from 2008 and 2009:

Tests in 2008: 26 wickets at 18.38 in 3 Tests
Tests in 2009: 13 wickets at 40.23 in 5 Tests

ODIs in 2008: 48 wickets at 10.12 in 18 matches
ODIs in 2009: 16 wickets at 22.18 in 10 matches

T20s in 2008: 11 wickets at 5.00 in 3 matches
T20s in 2009: 12 wickets at 11.91 in 7 matches

The ODI and T20 stats for 2009 are not bad in absolute terms, but when compared to his 2008 achievements, they are a stinker. Mendis’s IPL was a disaster as he was not only a member of the much-ridiculed Kolkata Knight Riders, but also his performance (3 wickets at 39.00 from 4 matches at a 7.31 economy rate) was poor. He didn’t play many matches.

It is clear that teams have figured him out. The Sri Lankan management over-hyped him, but then Mendis’s initial performances justified such hype. I think the real problem was that Mendis was so extremely successful that other players and coaches were forced to spend time in trying to beat him. At the international level, there are enough resources, experience and brainpower to accurately understand the playing style of any batsman or bowler.

To counter that, the player has to innovate constantly. Clearly, whatever technique Mendis has is no longer a mystery. And he apparently is unable to produce changes in his bowling that would confuse batsmen. The difference between his Test and ODI performance also suggests that batsmen are much more careful against him, since in ODIs, they are forced to take risks, like it or not.

The best comparison we can make to Ajantha Mendis is Mike Hussey, who had a great start to his career, but subsequently slumped badly. Even though Hussey still maintains a 50+ average, he is no longer that immovable force he was at his career start. In fact, it is surprising that he hasn’t been dropped, something that could yet happen if Australia lose the Ashes and Hussey doesn’t hit a century or two.

I don’t think Mendis is going away entirely. It is difficult to see Herath continuing his success especially after Murali’s return. And Mendis will play a role in ODIs and T20s. But the mystery is gone now and unless he comes up with new tactics, Mendis is no longer the irresistible force!

The Not Out Man

Michael Bevan was one of the best ODI batsmen ever. During his career, he repeatedly pulled Australia out of the fire, sometimes playing with the tailenders, and dragging them over the finish line. Bevan ended up with almost 7000 runs from 232 matches with a phenomenal average of 53.58. One of the reasons for his high average was that it was really difficult to get him out – he was unbeaten 67 times in the 196 innings that he played. That is 34% of the time. Even a solid middle-order batsman like Steve Waugh has been not out only 20% of the time.

It is illuminating to look at the two players who have similar averages as Bevan. Mike Hussey’s current stats are very similar to Bevan. Hussey has an average of 53.85 (just above Bevan) and has been not out 28 times out of 75 innings (37% of the time). Both Hussey and Bevan have done well at No. 4 (56.87 vs. 59.60); This position was Bevan’s best position and Hussey’s 2nd best, Hussey having an enormous average of 117.66 at No. 7. Kevin Pietersen with an average of 48.36 has been not out 19% of the time. He has actually performed better down the order than at No. 3 and No. 4. Although Hussey and Pietersen have played similar number of innings, Kevin has more runs (3047 vs. 2531) and more consequential innings (27 vs. 18 innings over 50).

Is it useful to have a batsman who remains unbeaten? In Tests, it may be useful when such a batsman is paired with a more free-flowing batsman. Bowlers would be demoralized by a stonewall on one end and punishment on the other. If the anchoring batsman can rotate the strike, then you can have huge innings totals. Such a batsman is also invaluable in a 4th innings chase, or a batting collapse when you just want to shut out the opposition bowlers for some time. However, Bevan was never able to replicate his ODI success in Tests (a poor average of 29.07). Perhaps someone like Chanderpaul (in his recent form) would be more appropriate for a debate on the subject.

But we are talking about ODI’s, so is this useful? Bevan was able to anchor Australia to many victories, but they definitely were the ascendant team during those times. Bevan’s batting strike rate is a poor 74 runs per 100 balls. So in many cases, Australia could have made a larger score when batting first, or succeeded in the chase because their bowlers had limited the target that they had to chase. Most of Bevan’s big scores were not quick scoring innings. It can be debated whether a more aggressive batsman could have ended the match sooner during the chase.

The batting team’s Powerplay may mean that an anchoring batsman like Bevan finds no place in an ODI team. The batting team has to make tons of runs at the end, because larger targets are becoming easier to chase down. Having a batsman who is more interested in playing safe shots to preserve his wicket is less useful than someone with the more risky and unorthodox shots that has the potential to fetch 20 runs in an over.

The “unbeatable” batsman also has the danger of be hyped up over his average. This may cause two problems. One is that they keep trying to maintain their average by playing safer instead of taking calculated risks – this will have a heavy tax on the team when they are batting first in an ODI. Second is that the pressure of inflated expectations could weigh on them, so when they are in a slump, they try to hit large scores to get back into form, instead of slowing working themselves back into form. Hussey seems to suffer from that, Pietersen less so.

Weaker or improving teams have typically relied on such a batsman, because they need someone who can be there till the end. Essentially, what that means is other batsmen are not capable or ready to take responsibility for the team’s failures. For a long time, Tendulkar played this role for India, so that when he was out, the Indian batting order collapsed if the remaining task was too steep. When that changed, India started winning more.

More on Mike Hussey

To follow on our earlier post on Mike Hussey, here is a graph that illustrates his fall. Even though he has had some pretty poor scores recently, the fall has been less precipitous  because of the spectacular start to his career. 2008 has not been that bad a year, either – He scored 900 runs at 37.50, but it was a far cry from his above 70 averages for the previous three years. It will be interesting to follow this, since Australia now follows up this series with an away series against the same opponents (South Africa). So if the South African bowlers already have Hussey’s number, it would be difficult for him to make a good comeback.

 

Hussey's average

Innings

South Africa Are Number One

It was hardly a contest at all. The South Africans brushed aside Australia’s meagre target in quick time and now have a legitimate claim to be No. 1 in Test cricket. Australia has simply been outclassed by a superior team with a captain who leads from the front.

What’s next for Australia? You have to go back a long way before you found a series where Australia played a dead rubber where they had already been beaten. This should spell the end for Matthew Hayden, a great batsman of the past, but reduced to irrelevance in this series. Perhaps he will resign instead of being outed by the selectors.

Hussey aside, the rest of the batting seems okay. Unfortunately, they do not seem to be coming together in unison to post huge scores. Australia’s main problem, though, is their toothless bowling that is encouraging to the other Test teams. They may be well advised to try out different bowling options in the next Test.

Though the series is lost, Australia do have a chance at redemption. They have an away series against the South Africans and if they can come up with a much improved performance, they can reclaim their throne.

As for South Africa, what a team. The right mix of experience and young talent including the debutant Duminy. A superb strike bowler in Steyn. An inspiring captain in Graeme Smith. We should have guessed that they were meant for great things on this tour, by the way Smith closed his mouth about his opponents and let his bat do the talking.