Statistics are the bread-and-butter of sportswriters. Sports fans love how we can analyze the best players and teams in different conditions and times. Games like soccer provide very limited opportunities for statistical analysis. But cricket with its ball-by-ball action has inexhaustible possibilities for data mining. I don’t mean in any sense to demean this activity. It is part of the fun of being a cricket enthusiast. Numerical data also provides us guidance in expectations for team performance and improvement.
However, in the realm of one-day cricket, statistical analysis for many aspects of the game is becoming worse than useless. Analysis only makes sense when you are comparing performances that take place in constant conditions. Let me start with the caveat that every cricket match is different: grounds, pitches, teams, etc. But you could make an argument that over a long period, such an entire career, many of these variables iron themselves out and so you may be able to do some comparisons. But that argument falls flat on the many changes to the rules of one-day internationals as well as the strategies used in the games.
Consider the following:
- There have been different rain rules until the Duckworth-Lewis method came into being. With a run-rate based rain rule, the team batting second had an unfair advantage, while the best-scoring overs gave it a distinct disadvantage. Teams and players had to play differently according to those circumstances. Nowadays, when there is a chance of rain, teams have to be very careful not to lose wickets and can sometimes afford to play out a few overs if they happen to be ahead on runs.
- The idea of openers hitting sixers from the first ball only originated in the 1992 World Cup (20 years after the first ODI), and the idea of BOTH openers doing it came from the Sri Lankan team just before the 1996 World Cup. Comparing openers before and after this period is meaningless. For example, the Indian opener Sunil Gavaskar had a solitary ODI hundred, because the idea of openers batting faster was not in vogue then.
- Runs from wides and no-balls are now treated differently than before. We also have free hits that didn’t exist before. Players add easy runs to their record without even the risk of being out.
- Advancements in technology reduces mistakes made by umpires. Starting with run-out decisions, we now have third umpires for deciding on clean catches and providing guidance on LBW’s and so on. This is also an issue with Test stats. Technology has also reduced the risk to batsmen from dangerous fast bowlers and provided improved bats that carry enormous power for them to hit freely. Even mishits end up as sixers behind the wicketkeeper.
- Once upon a time, the first 15 overs had fielding restrictions. Now it is 10 + 5 + 5, allowing teams to post bigger scores. The most recent innovation is that the batting team can decide when to take a 5-over Powerplay, which they will do only at the most opportune time.
In short, this is not your father’s ODI. It is not even your elder brother’s ODI match. The pace of change has picked up with the ICC trying to popularize the game and make it more appealing to the crowds. The huge success of T20 is putting pressure on ODI to change or die. Until we reach some stability, comparing batsmen, bowlers and teams from different ODI periods (even though they are a fraction of the Test match era) is essentially an exercise in futility.
