The Revenge Series Is Going Well

India secure the return ODI series with a win and now lead by 3-0. Dhoni is leading the rout with another unbeaten innings. Although today’s match was close, with 5 wickets in hand towards the end, it was going to be very tough for England to win. And unless they are able to make significant improvements all around, it looks to be a 0-5 rout.

Which would have been great for India if the ODI series had been coupled with a Test series. Unfortunately, it is going to be another year before England tour India, and much of this would have been forgotten. England, on its part, are going to have tough times before then, playing Pakistan and Sri Lanka. And most likely would have lost their No. 1 ranking by then. India, also, have a tough tour of Australia coming up. Therefore, the next Test series may not be the battle at the top that we saw with the India tour of England.

Anyway, be that may, it is a welcome turnaround of fortunes for MS Dhoni. After the miserable England tour, Dhoni had another terrible tournament, the Champions League, where his team, Chennai Super Kings, ended up at the bottom of the league. And people have been talking about the end of his Midas Touch. That would not be a good thing for India, but hopefully that is not the case, and the last few months have been just a deviation from the norm.

Crazy Cricket Headline of the Day

The Guardian has it

Eoin Morgan will captain England in the ODI against Ireland in Dublin

OK, you might think that this is not a big deal considering that Andrew Strauss captained the team against South Africa. But Strauss never played 23 one-dayers for South Africa. The only other person I can think of is Kepler Wessels, who played for Australia and then captained South Africa. But he was well into the end of his career when that happened.

 

Time to Fire Dhoni

Mahendra Singh Dhoni’s initial captaincy was like a breath of fresh air. Dhoni seemed to be the perfect person to take India through the transition from the old set of players (Ganguly, Kumble, Dravid, Tendulkar) to a younger group. And he had a great start to his captaincy: winning the Twenty20 World Cup and leading Chennai Super Kings to the finals. His record as a Test captain started with four consecutive victories against South Africa, Australia and England.

What was special about those initial days? Several things. He commanded respect in the team, but also gave respect and believed in his team. I remember the 2007 match against Australia when he, as a first-time captain, could have panicked. Instead, he made all the right calls, bringing his strike bowlers back, getting rid of the dangerous Hayden and trusting a total newcomer with the final over. That took guts. Later, details of that event showed a captain who was willing to stand behind his team and take responsibility.

Then things changed. I guess there were early warning signs. I remember Dhoni taunting Ravi Shastri about his Cricinfo article that gave no hope to India. That only meant that Dhoni was closely following the press and it had got to him. And he had no reason to feel angry. India were true underdogs in the first T20 Cup. Shastri only said what was obvious. But negative criticism affected Dhoni and it seems to continue to do so.

The first signs of change was the second India-England Test in 2008. India could have pressed hard for a victory. Instead they batted on and on until Gambhir fell short of a century. What was going on? It was obvious that somebody wanted to seal an Indian series victory without taking any risk, even though there was none and a much greater chance of having a whitewash. Who was that person?

As the Twenty20 World Cup approached, the batting order changes began. Hindsight is always 20-20, but even at that time, the whole circus of moving people around seemed ridiculous. Remember India had already tried this when Greg Chappell was in charge. Then, Irfan Pathan and Dhoni made hay and India set records in chasing down scores. But very soon, the strategy backfired after both players lost form. Why would India re-embrace such a failed tactic? Maybe because Dhoni remembered those days fondly?!

The worst part of this batting shuffle game was Dhoni’s position. It is impossible to peer into a man’s soul, but it seemed the epitome of selfishness to see Dhoni walk out at No. 3 each time the openers set a strong foundation, while remaining hidden when wickets fell early.

Fast forward to the Champions Trophy. Let’s ignore for a second all the results and focus on one moment in the last match. This was when Dhoni came to bowl against West Indies in the 17th over of the match when West Indies were 49/4. This against the second-string team when neither Harbhajan nor Mishra had come out to bowl.

So what was Dhoni doing? Read SOAL’s take on this. But let me simplify it for you. There are only two explanations – one giving the benefit of the doubt to Dhoni (he was doing it for the benefit of the team) and the other not so (he was doing it for some selfish reason). Let us ignore the second one and accept that Dhoni was doing it for the team. But that also is a terrible indictment of Dhoni.

Dhoni had never bowled a single ball in almost 150 one-dayers. Apparently, he believed that he could do a good job of containing West Indies or taking their wickets than two experienced spinners (Harbhajan & Mishra) against a second-hand side who had just lost to Bangladesh. Either he is the biggest nut job or he is the biggest self-glorifying egomaniac in Indian cricket.

And that is the kindest interpretation of events. A captain who believed in his team once now thinks that he is better than the specialists in his team. Yes, he can bat better than they do – that’s why he comes at No. 3. He can bowl better than they do – that’s why he chucks off the gloves. And he can also keep. He is the Superman!

India doesn’t need such mentally damaged goods. Give the reign to someone who has both feet on the ground and who can take India through to the next World Cup and win it.

Release the Source Code for Duckworth and Lewis Already

So here’s the Cricinfo commentary while the Australia-India match was being washed out by rain:

18.30 Tony Lewis, of Duckworth and Lewis, has emailed giving us the correct permutation. A newer version of the software was implemented for this tournament, which Tony has. Per the new WinCODA2 software being used by Tony and the scorers in South Africa, India’s target will be 266 in 42 overs, and 166 for 20 overs. Thanks for that Tony. Appreciated. And no, this system apparently does not take into consideration Powerplays.

It is amazing (incredible, astonishing, STUPID) that the rules for determining the outcome of a match are hidden inside proprietary software that even the No. 1 cricket website in the world doesn’t possess. It is even worse that no one, outside the makers of that proprietary software, can explain what those rules are.

So release the application source code already. Maybe Duckworth and Lewis can sign a contract with the ICC for being the sole vendors for the software, and they can license the technology to resellers who can service the local tournaments. That way, they don’t lose out when open-sourcing the software.

By releasing the code, every cricket enthusiast can look at the rules and suggest improvements that can be rolled back into the main product. Not to mention bugs that can be fixed.

India Done In By Tactical Mistakes and Pakistani Brilliance

I was trying to recall the last time India lost to Pakistan in a big tournament and simply couldn’t. This was a historic win for Pakistan and it will mean a lot for them to beat the arch-rivals even if they don’t do much for the rest of the tournament. As for India, unless they beat Australia on Monday, they will not qualify for the semi-finals – a big blow to one of the Trophy favorites.

Two Pakistani pairs – one batting (Shoaib Malik and Mohammad Yousuf) and one bowling (Saeed Ajmal and Shahid Afridi) – did most of the work today. The Malik-Yousuf double century partnership took the match away from India at a time when Pakistan was on the backfoot (65/3). Yousuf deserved a ton for his effort.

India should have applied more pressure at the beginning of that long partnership. Bowling Kohli was a joke. A couple of more wickets at that juncture could have resulted in a target around 200. Dhoni did not seem to be thinking very clearly.

The batting was better and India could have probably achieved a target that was some 30 runs smaller. But the run-outs didn’t help. Plus the fact that Rahul Dravid stayed there instead of Sachin Tendulkar probably sealed the result of the match. You can make a case that an India with Yuvraj Singh and Virender Sehwag may have overhauled that target and you may be right.

One last point which I have been harping on for sometime: Dhoni’s floating position. I don’t think it affected today’s result, but why does he keep shuffling the batting order between him and Suresh Raina? Not to say his weird tendency to come in at No. 3 if there is a platform.

India and Dhoni have to stop with this “flexible” batting order stupidity. It is a low percentage tactical move and the only person it seems to be benefiting is Dhoni. Take a look at his scores in the last several matches where he has promoted himself to No. 3.

England Throws Group B Into a Spin

So much for conventional wisdom. The only team I had given England a chance against was New Zealand, but England really outdid themselves today, beating one of the tournament favorites Sri Lanka. And that too comfortably without the usual collapse dramatics along the way.

With this loss, Sri Lanka’s semifinal chances have become tenuous. If they lose the next match against New Zealand, they are out of the tournament. And even if they win, they have to depend on net run rate. Unfortunately, the problem is that South Africa and England will know exactly what they need to do to overtake Sri Lanka in the run rate because the Lankans finish their matches on Sunday.

Sri Lanka do deserve some credit from coming back from a terrible collapse. Their middle order had received criticism earlier for not stepping up to the job when the chips were down. But 212 was nowhere near enough. And that coupled with Murali’s lack of form today (1/60 off 10 overs) provided England an easy path to victory.

England could have made it even worse for Sri Lanka, but they are still suffering from lack of confidence in punishing their opposition. A win by the 40th over or more penetrative bowling could have put England way ahead on NRR. But a win in hand is better than an ignominious collapse when trying to accelerate. Losing only one wicket to the spinners was commendable.

What next? It is an elimination match for both Sri Lanka and New Zealand. Whoever loses is out. If Sri Lanka wins, then South Africa has to beat England, and hope England loses to the Kiwis. If New Zealand wins, and South Africa beat England, the England v NZ match will determine the second semifinalist from the group.

What a delicious result to make this all very interesting.

Pakistan Manage Not to Embarrass Themselves

I didn’t give much chance for West Indies to pose a challenge to Pakistan, considering that their main players are not in the team because of the contract dispute. In fact, this was the team that was beaten by Bangladesh in the home Tests a few weeks ago. So, a team weaker than Bangladesh and seemingly just as hopeless.

And once they were reduced to 47/7, I wondered if Bangladesh or Ireland would have been a better choice. But they somehow managed to add 80-odd runs with No.8 Miller hitting an almost run-a-ball fifty. The funniest part of the match was when West Indies took the batting Powerplay when eight down and then proceeded to add 32 runs in four overs. What could have been a crushing performance by the Pakistani bowlers ended in an anti-climax.

Worse was to come with Pakistan losing wickets to reach 76/5. If they had lost a couple of more wickets soon after that, it would be a stunning upset and essentially curtains for Pakistan in this tournament. They were spared that embarrassment by the “new” guy Umar Akmal and now-responsible Afridi.

Pakistan fans should not feel too bad. If history is any clue, Pakistan starting poorly in a tournament means that they will probably end up with the Cup (1992, 2009 T20). On the other hand, poor form may just be poor form. Pakistan still has tall mountains to scale in the form of Australia and arch-nemesis India.

The West Indies situation is a little more convoluted. Miller and Tonge had a nice day out there, but I wonder what will happen to all these players when and if the contract dispute will be resolved. I cannot understand why when the cricket coffers are overflowing with money, these issues cannot be easily sorted out. It is amazing how many of the Test nations are facing problems:

  • Pakistan: The terrorist attacks against Sri Lankan team
  • Zimbabwe: Mugabe
  • West Indies: Contract issue and sharp decline in form
  • New Zealand: Sharp decline in form
  • Bangladesh: Never been able to achieve form
  • England: Continuing loss of popularity to soccer

The good news has been the LTTE defeat in Sri Lanka, but that is negated by the stupid pitches in their stadiums.

Rainy Start to the Champions Trophy

The first match of the Champions Trophy between Sri Lanka and South Africa did not turn out to be a great advertisement for the beleaguered ODI format. It started off well, though, with Sri Lanka making 181/2 after 29 overs, only to end up with 319/8 after the full 50 overs. South Africa were well positioned at 90/1 after 14 overs, but kept losing wickets and then rain ended their misery.

This is a good win for Sri Lanka whose recent home victories have been tainted by the skewed results of the Premadasa Stadium. This was also their toughest match in the group and should be good enough to get them into the semifinals. Of course, they still have to beat New Zealand and England, but I don’t think either team poses a threat.

Also hats off to Dilshan. I am amazed at his transition. He made his ODI debut in December 1999 and this was only his third century. And his second of the year. While his career average is at a pitiful 31.56, his average for this year is a remarkable 54.90. Now, if he can make amends for his silly shot in the World Twenty20 final and lead Sri Lanka to the Trophy, this would definitely be his year.

South Africa shouldn’t panic yet. I felt that they lost the game in the first quarter when the Sri Lankan batsmen were going at an incredible pace. They pulled it back a bit, but it was not enough. 30-40 fewer runs to chase, they may have achieved the target. They should get to the semis, but given South Africa’s track record at these competitions, nothing can be taken for granted.

2009 ICC Champions Trophy Predictions

One-dayers are more predictable than Twenty20 matches, given the fact that most teams have figured out the formula and what matters is execution and skill. Twenty20, in contrast, is still confusing in terms of tactics and so weaker teams can spring surprises. Not so in ODIs. So I feel that the Champions Trophy will be rather straightforward with few upsets.

Going by conventional wisdom, it looks likely that Australia, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka will make the semis. I would also give New Zealand a strong chance to make the semis, because they have the ability to beat both South Africa and Sri Lanka, but in recent times, they haven’t performed to their potential. Australia remain the favorites to win the Cup.

I do wish someone would come up with an innovative strategy that turns the tournament upside down. Dhoni’s sole tactic seems to be messing with the batting order or rather, coming at No. 3 when things are going well. And the other teams are the same too.

But perhaps the Champions Trophy is not the right time and place, given the short nature of the tournament. It is also difficult to expect innovation from the top teams. The teams that brought new thinking to cricket were the underdogs New Zealand (in 1992) and Sri Lanka (in 1996). After that, we went backwards with Australia dominating the world stage.

But perhaps a team like no-hopers West Indies could try something unusual to upset the rhythm of the opposition. Strange fielding positions and unusual bowling methods. Unconventional batting styles. They are not going to win anything playing normally. Why not try something different and get marks for it.