The general storyline seems to be always, “Pakistan is unpredictable“. And that is true to a large extent. But it misses the fact that there are two teams in every match and it is not always about one team winning or losing solely on their performance. In simple terms, it is not only about Pakistan’s performance, but also about what Sri Lanka is doing out there.
The Sri Lankan bowlers bowled out Pakistan for 90 in the first innings. In the second, they have taken 1 for 178. What happened to their form? Did they forget to get batsmen out? How did the Sri Lankan batsmen who were in control yesterday slump so badly the next day, collapsing in a heap?
The truth is that the Sri Lankan team hides a lot of mediocrity behind good teamwork. They have a couple of great batsmen and one great bowler. But anytime they fail, the mediocre members chip in with big performances and win matches. A good example is Herath (average: 36.21 in 15 Tests) in the first Test. It is unlikely he will ever repeat his best Test figures, but he won a match for Sri Lanka when everything looked hopeless.
Or Dilshan. He was their mainstay in the World Twenty20 scoring four fifties, but before that, his highest score in 10 innings was 38. Or Angelo Mathews. He took 2 wickets in 4 matches before he took three wickets in the first over of the West Indian innings. Or Kulasekara who took 4/21 in the first innings – His bowling average before this Test was 59.55.
The point is that when you play against the Sri Lankans, you not only have to worry about Sangakkara, Jayawardene and Murali (the greats), but also each of the weaker Sri Lankan batsmen and bowlers who, for whatever strange reason, start producing the best innings or spell of their lives when Sri Lanka is in trouble.
While this has mostly worked for Sri Lanka for sometime now, it is also dangerous in the long run. It allows players who produce random good performance to remain in the team while blocking those who could be more consistent. It prevents Sri Lanka from mounting a serious challenge against Australia or the top tier teams while touring.
Another problem I keep pointing about for Sri Lanka is some of their players are in the team with inflated averages from a few series. For example, note how the averages of the batting order drops when you remove Bangladesh and Zimbabwe from the equation. Samaraweera and Dilshan don’t look so good.

You can also find a similar pattern with Mendis, whose reasonable-looking average is purely because of his debut Test against Bangladesh and the series against India at home. Not counting the current Test, he has an average of 59.50 since then. We will see how long he lasts.