Tag Archives: rankings

Why the ICC Test Rankings Make No Sense

Posted on by

I am not a huge fan of Australian domination of cricket, as I feel that cricket is boring if one team wins all the time. At the same time, I cannot find myself to agree in any way with the Australian team dropping from #1 to #4 after the recent Ashes defeat. And the rationale is very simple.

Australia have only lost 3 series out of 14 possible bilateral Test series (or 16, if you include Bangladesh). They have won the rest (with no ties) mostly by crushing the opposition. In fact, before the 2007 Perth loss to India, they had equalled the record for consecutive Test victories only to see India break the streak. The numbers are brutally one-sided: 18 wins, 1 draw and only 3 losses at home and 13-6-5 abroad.

No other team even comes close. South Africa have a good overseas report card, but even they have 6 defeats to 9 wins. Australia and South Africa are the only teams to even have a success rate of more than 50% in away series.

Also, Australia’s Ashes loss did not change anything from the previous England tour. Both series ended 2-1 in England’s favor. So why should Australia suddenly fall from the top spot?

Most commentators are treating Sri Lanka’s #2 position as a joke, but there is some justification. At this point, Sri Lanka’s home Test series record is the same as Australia’s: 6 series wins and only 1 series loss (against Australia). The recent victories against Pakistan and New Zealand changed the previous series defeats and draws to series wins.

But the other side of the equation is that Sri Lanka’s away record is still very poor. They do not have a *single* Test series victory except against Bangladesh. The only other team with that kind of record is West Indies. To their credit, Sri Lanka has drawn series against England, West Indies, New Zealand and Pakistan, but the lack of a series victory is a glaring problem.

In one sense, Sri Lanka seems to be at the same position that India were in the 1990′s. India won almost every series (except against South Africa) played at home, but couldn’t win anything abroad for ages, even against the declining Windies. Only in this decade have they started winning abroad. So will Sri Lanka build upon their home success like India did?

If Australia should be at the top and South Africa is second, who should be #3? Should it be Sri Lanka or India? The home success rates for India and Sri Lanka are the same. This is because while India has won only 5 Test series, it has drawn two and lost none (the only team not to have lost a Test series at home).

India’s away record is much better than Sri Lanka’s with 3 wins and 4 losses (which includes the close Australian series) when compared to Sri Lanka’s 4 draws and 3 losses. India look much likely to improve that (in Australia and South Africa) than the Sri Lankan team.

So all things considered, India should be at #3 and Sri Lanka at #4. This may change in the future, but based on present facts, this is what it is.

Overall Series Results Success %age

Posted on by

So let us look at the consolidated success %age (both home and away series). Despite their recent losses, Australia are at the top of the table by virtue of having 2 more wins against draws by SA. India seems a strong team and their recent 2-0 victory against Australia lead to claims that they are No. 1. According to this chart, they have some ways to go. More to the point, their high ranking obscures the fact that their entire performance is based on home victories with little to show abroad. In fact, India had beaten Australia at home several times in the past without such claims being made.

England is a difficult team to evaluate because their team has been in such a flux after the high point of the 2005 Ashes. The recent events surrounding Pietersen make the ratings even more irrelevant. The big underperformer is Sri Lanka, with matchwinners in Jayawardene, Sangakkara, and Murali, they have not been able to achieve better results. However, they are in striking distance of the third spot and perhaps, this may be a breakout year for them.

 

Overall Series Average for Test Playing Teams

Overall Series Average for Test Playing Teams

 

 

 

 

             Wins   Draws  Losses    Success %
Australia      11       0       3       78.57%
South Africa    9       2       3       71.43%
India           7       2       5       57.14%
England         7       1       6       53.57%
Pakistan        6       2       6       50.00%
Sri Lanka       4       5       5       46.43%
New Zealand     2       5       7       32.14%
West Indies     0       3      11       10.71%

Statistics – Away Series Success %age

Posted on by

To follow up on the home series success %age, here are the stats for away series. Except for Australia and South Africa, no Team is a good traveler. England, surprisingly, have had the most success among them, relatively speaking. India had one of the worst away records for decades and although the past few years have seen greater success in winning Tests, they are still very poor. Some successes (like a drawn series in Australia and a win in Pakistan) have been reversed with losses in most recent series, so they remain 2nd bottom (along with SL and NZ) just above WI.

The sole West Indies draw was the recent one with NZ. There is a case to be made to remove WI from the list like we did Bangladesh, but the West Indies have a better Test record (as compared to series results). They have won and drawn 6 of their 20 away contests (17.50%) which is not that bad a comparison with NZ (28%).

             Wins   Draws  Losses    Success %
Australia       5       0       2       71.43%
South Africa    4       2       1       71.43%
England         3       0       4       42.86%
Pakistan        2       1       4       35.71%
India           2       0       5       28.57%
Sri Lanka       0       4       3       28.57%
New Zealand     1       2       4       28.57%
West Indies     0       1       6        7.14%


Away Series Success Percentages of Cricket Test Teams in 2008
Away Series Success Percentages of Cricket Test Teams in 2008

Statistics – Home Series Success %age

Posted on by

The following table shows the success %age of the Test nations in the most recent home series against other nations. Bangladesh is not included in this chart.

Until the recent Australia-SA series, Australia had a 100% success rate, but they are now level with India who is the only team to have not lost a series at home. All teams, except NZ and WI, are strong with home with England, Pakistan and Sri Lanka having similar records. West Indies remain the only team not to have won a single series at home in recent times, a far cry from their dominance in the 80′s. 

 

Home Series Success Percentages of Cricket Test Teams in 2008

Home Series Success Percentages of Cricket Test Teams in 2008

 

             Wins   Draws  Losses    Success %
Australia       6       0       1       85.71%
India           5       2       0       85.71%
South Africa    5       0       2       71.43%
England         4       1       2       64.29%
Pakistan        4       1       2       64.29%
Sri Lanka       4       1       2       64.29%
New Zealand     1       3       3       35.71%
West Indies     0       2       5       14.29%

Being the Number One Test Team

Posted on by

Australia still remain on the top of the ICC Test rankings with 126 points edging out South Africa which has 121 points. On an intuitive level, we know that this is meaningless, as Australia has just lost to both India and South Africa. In comparison, South Africa has had two excellent years. The last time they lost a series was in Sri Lanka in 2006. And if they beat Australia at home, no one can deny that they are the strongest team in world cricket today.

But in one way, South Africa have some ways to go before they can achieve the stunning heights of the previous No. 1. When Australia beat India 2-1 at home last year, they had won almost all the recent series against any opposition, home or away. Discounting Bangladesh, Australia had won 13 out of 14 possible series against the Test nations, the sole exception being the 2005 Ashes series. Not won and drawn, but won. And of course, the Ashes was lost by the small matter of 3 runs and 3 wickets.

Now, of course, that is down to 11 of 14. But South Africa’s record is 9 wins, 2 draws (against India and NZ away) and 3 losses (against Australia and England at home, and Sri Lanka away). They can fix the Australia loss immediately and probably beat England next time around. But India and Sri Lanka are considerable walls to surmount.

India first. India has the best home record after Australia with 5 series wins and 5 series draws. Since Australia’s home record is simply a function of their overall team strength (they win everywhere!) while India’s away record (5 series losses and 2 series wins) is atrocious with the same team, India simply has a huge home advantage that cannot be easily taken down. Steve Waugh rightly called India the “Final Frontier”. South Africa have had more success in India than most teams, but this year, even they were held to a draw.

As for Sri Lanka, the only teams to beat them at home have been Australia and Pakistan. While this blog has been harsh on Sri Lanka for their self-serving matches against Bangladesh, this is a team clearly on the rise with improved performances and a new matchwinner, Mendis, who is even more lethal than Murali. Beating them is not going to be easy.

Another big difference between the Australian and South African teams is the margin of victories. Australia had been dealing out whitewash after whitewash to unfortunate teams including South Africa. If we take the most recent series against all opposition, the success rate is 77% (32 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses). South Africa, by comparison, is at 57% (20 wins, 8 draws and 14 losses). 

South Africa look to be in the period when Australia seemed shy of asserting their dominance, namely, losing dead-rubber matches. They lost one in England earlier this year and now the Sydney Test. Winning more matches will likely make them more blood-thirsty. If this Australian series win is not a false dawn, we will soon see long winning streaks by the South Africans.

The Top Teams of 2008

Posted on by

A simple (but naive, as I shall explain) way to find the top-performing teams of 2008 would be to find the success percentage of each team in 2008. Give a point for a win, half a point for a draw and none for a loss and then divide the total by the number of Tests. Here is what you would get:

Team            Won    Draw   Lost     Success %age
South Africa     11       2      2              80%
Sri Lanka         4       0      2              67%
India             6       5      4              57%
England           5       3      4              54%
Australia         5       4      5              50%
New Zealand       4       4      6              43%
West Indies       1       3      5              28%
Bangladesh        0       1      8               6%

Pakistan is missing from the table having played no Tests this year, partly because of their domestic problems. Not many surprises in the table. South Africa had a great year, winning in Australia and England, and drawing in Sri Lanka India. Australia with their defeats against India and South Africa drop to the middle of the table. Sri Lanka has a higher ranking, partly because they didn’t play very many Tests.

Now, let’s see what happens to the chart if we update the statistics by removing all the Tests that Bangladesh played.

Team            Won    Draw   Lost     Success %age
South Africa      7       2      2              73%
Sri Lanka         3       0      2              60%
India             6       5      4              57%
England           5       3      4              54%
Australia         5       4      5              50%
West Indies       1       3      5              28%
New Zealand       1       3      6              25%

Removing those matches makes a tremendous difference. Although South Africa is still comfortable ahead, the other teams are quite close together. New Zealand and West Indies are about equal, a fact re-affirmed by the ultimate stalemate series that they are now playing. Let us eliminate them both and see what we get

Team            Won    Draw   Lost     Success %age
South Africa      5       2      2              67%
Sri Lanka         2       0      1              67%
India             6       5      4              57%
England           1       2      3              33%
Australia         1       3      5              28%

South Africa’s success rate comes down to 67%, which is still remarkable – the only team that they didn’t play in this list against was Sri Lanka. England won the last Test of the dead rubber against SA, but they did have some good moments against India, so let’s call that a wash. Considering that Bangladesh got to play 9 Tests, Sri Lanka being reduced to playing just 3 against a top-tier team (winning 2-1 against India) is pitiful. We don’t have enough data to evaluate them properly. India did well, except in Sri Lanka, and lost an opportunity against England. Australia’s year was terrible. If it weren’t for the controversial Sydney Test win, they would have nothing to show for the entire year.

The top series to watch out for next year are the remaining South Africa-Australia matches (3 of them back in South Africa), the Ashes and perhaps a Sri Lankan tour of Pakistan. Next year would also be a good time for India to turn around its bad fortunes in New Zealand.