Premadasa Stadium Strikes Again

Once again, the R Premadasa Stadium at Colombo favored the team batting first. As expected, the team which won the toss (Sri Lanka) chose to bat, put up a big score and then bowled the opposition out for nothing. The biggest loser here is New Zealand which is in such a sorry state that they could not win even after winning the toss.

The Compaq Cup final on Monday will again be a test of who can call the toss correctly. Dhoni has failed twice, so the Indian fans have to pray that his luck changes. Else they might as well call the match off after the toss and hand the Cup to Sri Lanka.

And yet again, Sri Lanka wins via a lifetime best performance by a struggling player. Angelo Mathews, going into the match, had 5 wickets from 11 matches at 53.40, going wicketless in 7 matches. These 11 matches include four against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe. After this match, his average has gone to a flattering 26.09!

We saw this in the first match, where Thilan Samaraweera hit a century to pull Sri Lanka out of trouble. His previous highest ODI score in 21 matches was 38*. Even after that ton, his batting average stands at 22.06.

One of these days, Sri Lanka will lose after nobody arrives to save the day. But so far, they have been doing a great job of getting astonishing performances from the weak members of their team. Waiting to see who the unlikely hero in the final will be.

Why the ICC Test Rankings Make No Sense

I am not a huge fan of Australian domination of cricket, as I feel that cricket is boring if one team wins all the time. At the same time, I cannot find myself to agree in any way with the Australian team dropping from #1 to #4 after the recent Ashes defeat. And the rationale is very simple.

Australia have only lost 3 series out of 14 possible bilateral Test series (or 16, if you include Bangladesh). They have won the rest (with no ties) mostly by crushing the opposition. In fact, before the 2007 Perth loss to India, they had equalled the record for consecutive Test victories only to see India break the streak. The numbers are brutally one-sided: 18 wins, 1 draw and only 3 losses at home and 13-6-5 abroad.

No other team even comes close. South Africa have a good overseas report card, but even they have 6 defeats to 9 wins. Australia and South Africa are the only teams to even have a success rate of more than 50% in away series.

Also, Australia’s Ashes loss did not change anything from the previous England tour. Both series ended 2-1 in England’s favor. So why should Australia suddenly fall from the top spot?

Most commentators are treating Sri Lanka’s #2 position as a joke, but there is some justification. At this point, Sri Lanka’s home Test series record is the same as Australia’s: 6 series wins and only 1 series loss (against Australia). The recent victories against Pakistan and New Zealand changed the previous series defeats and draws to series wins.

But the other side of the equation is that Sri Lanka’s away record is still very poor. They do not have a *single* Test series victory except against Bangladesh. The only other team with that kind of record is West Indies. To their credit, Sri Lanka has drawn series against England, West Indies, New Zealand and Pakistan, but the lack of a series victory is a glaring problem.

In one sense, Sri Lanka seems to be at the same position that India were in the 1990′s. India won almost every series (except against South Africa) played at home, but couldn’t win anything abroad for ages, even against the declining Windies. Only in this decade have they started winning abroad. So will Sri Lanka build upon their home success like India did?

If Australia should be at the top and South Africa is second, who should be #3? Should it be Sri Lanka or India? The home success rates for India and Sri Lanka are the same. This is because while India has won only 5 Test series, it has drawn two and lost none (the only team not to have lost a Test series at home).

India’s away record is much better than Sri Lanka’s with 3 wins and 4 losses (which includes the close Australian series) when compared to Sri Lanka’s 4 draws and 3 losses. India look much likely to improve that (in Australia and South Africa) than the Sri Lankan team.

So all things considered, India should be at #3 and Sri Lanka at #4. This may change in the future, but based on present facts, this is what it is.

Wow!

Kridaya on August 27, 2009

Thilan Samaraweera who has notched his second century of the series. Samaraweera’s average stands at 52.25, a figure that would find him a place among the great batsmen of all time. That is, if he had actually done something against a strong team.

Here are his “away” averages against a few teams: 22.66 in Australia 10.50 in India 4.25 in England Never played in South Africa

His overall averages against Australia are 31.22 and against South Africa (2 home Tests) are 24.66. Compare that with 66.66 against Bangladesh, 84.66 against Zimbabwe, and 83.33 against New Zealand, against whom he has played 31% of all his Test matches. Also a home average of 59.29 versus 44.80 playing away.

Sambit Bal, Cricinfo, on August 28, 2009

With his second successive hundred against New Zealand, Thilan Samaraweera has taken his batting average to over 50, the magic number that used to confer greatness on Test batsmen. He now stands 29th on the all-time averages list, and if the list is restricted to batsmen with a minimum of 50 Tests, he jumps to 18.

[...] Still, how good is he? We perhaps don’t know yet. He averages 31.22 against Australia, 24.66 against South Africa, 28.87 against England. In Australia he averages 22.66, in England 4.25, and in India 10.50. He has played 30 of his 54 Tests at home, and averages nearly 60 in them.

Let me not go there…

Why It is Difficult to Respect Sri Lankan Players

99.94 has some praise for Thilan Samaraweera who has notched his second century of the series. Samaraweera’s average stands at 52.25, a figure that would find him a place among the great batsmen of all time. That is, if he had actually done something against a strong team.

Here are his “away” averages against a few teams:

22.66 in Australia
10.50 in India
4.25 in England
Never played in South Africa

His overall averages against Australia are 31.22 and against South Africa (2 home Tests) are 24.66. Compare that with 66.66 against Bangladesh, 84.66 against Zimbabwe, and 83.33 against New Zealand, against whom he has played 31% of all his Test matches. Also a home average of 59.29 versus 44.80 playing away.

This is just an example of the inflated averages of the Sri Lankan players. Take Jayawardene who made his debut in 1997. In 12 years, he has played a total of 4 Tests in Australia and 5 in South Africa. Sangakkara (started in 2000) has played only 6 Tests (both home and away) in almost a decade. Compare that with Tendulkar who has played almost 49 Tests against Australia and South Africa in two decades.

Sri Lanka have shown improved results when compared to the ’90s, but much of it has been at the expense of weak teams like Bangladesh & Zimbabwe, and others who have been declining, like West Indies and New Zealand. They have yet to perform credibly against Australia, South Africa and India.

They may well get there, but so far Sri Lanka has done nothing to justify the high rankings of their team or the high averages of their players.

Surprising Disintegration for Sri Lanka

Maybe a few years later, someone looking up the stats on Cricinfo would see this Pakistani tour of Sri Lanka and note how Pakistan lost the Test and ODI series and won the one-off Twenty20 match. If they don’t look deeper, they may get a quick impression that this was a really poor tour for Pakistan and that Sri Lanka walked all over them.

But at this moment in time, we know that is not really true. After three consecutive crushing victories in the last two one-dayers and the T20 match, Pakistan will return home, if not happy, at least in reasonably good spirits. Because in a sense, Pakistan has been playing against themselves in this tour.

Let us call them Serious Pakistan and Sleepy Pakistan. When Sleepy Pakistan played, they had spectacular batting collapses, inept fielding and toothless bowling. When Serious Pakistan played, they were unplayable. Unfortunately, Sleepy Pakistan dominated much of the tour until Serious Pakistan got going in the final matches.

Exactly the same thing can be said for Sri Lanka in reverse. But luckily for them, they didn’t get to sleep tightly until the tail end of the tour. But when they did, they were routed like minnows.

In the final analysis, Sri Lanka only benefited from a high-level reading of the series results. If you look closer, they were very close to losing 0-2 or even 0-3 in the Test series and also losing the ODI series. The usual suspects made runs. Mendis disappeared as a future bowling threat. The fast bowlers did well, but we will see how they perform in the long run.

It has been a see-saw series. But I suspect it has to do more with inconsistency than the strengths of either team. Compare it with the 2003/04 series by India in Australia. That was a series between two well-matched and in-form teams. In contrast, this series was about collapses and even more collapses.

A Weird ODI Series Comes to an End

Pakistan win the final ODI match against Sri Lanka, thus ending the series at a respectable 2-3. This after losing the series by the third match. Like the Test series, it is difficult to figure out which the better team is.

Take a look at Pakistan’s scores: 196 all out, 168 all out, 288/8, 321/5 and 279/8. From miserable batting performances to formidable scores.

Take a look at Sri Lanka’s scores: 232/9, 169/4 (chase), 289/4 (chase), 175 all out and 147 all out. From so-so to controlled chases to collapses.

The other side of the coin is the bowling. The Sri Lankans who bowled out Pakistan for 168 could not restrict them from crossing 321. And same for the Pakistan bowlers who allowed Sri Lanka to chase 288, but in the last match bowled them out for 147.

I don’t care much for series like this. The victories and defeats are so random. The results defy any pattern. Few players have been consistent in this series. It is almost as if both teams are sleepwalking through the series, with some players waking at times, doing their stuff and going back to sleep.

End of the Mystery Spinner?

Rangana Herath’s 5-wicket haul in the last Pakistani innings of this series, while expensive, will mean a longer absence for Ajantha Mendis from the Sri Lankan team. Unless Sri Lanka plans to field three spinners in a Test, it will be Herath who will accompany Murali in the upcoming Tests. This is a stunning setback to the career of Mendis, who was flying high throughout last year.

2009 has been cruel to Mendis. Compare his stats from 2008 and 2009:

Tests in 2008: 26 wickets at 18.38 in 3 Tests
Tests in 2009: 13 wickets at 40.23 in 5 Tests

ODIs in 2008: 48 wickets at 10.12 in 18 matches
ODIs in 2009: 16 wickets at 22.18 in 10 matches

T20s in 2008: 11 wickets at 5.00 in 3 matches
T20s in 2009: 12 wickets at 11.91 in 7 matches

The ODI and T20 stats for 2009 are not bad in absolute terms, but when compared to his 2008 achievements, they are a stinker. Mendis’s IPL was a disaster as he was not only a member of the much-ridiculed Kolkata Knight Riders, but also his performance (3 wickets at 39.00 from 4 matches at a 7.31 economy rate) was poor. He didn’t play many matches.

It is clear that teams have figured him out. The Sri Lankan management over-hyped him, but then Mendis’s initial performances justified such hype. I think the real problem was that Mendis was so extremely successful that other players and coaches were forced to spend time in trying to beat him. At the international level, there are enough resources, experience and brainpower to accurately understand the playing style of any batsman or bowler.

To counter that, the player has to innovate constantly. Clearly, whatever technique Mendis has is no longer a mystery. And he apparently is unable to produce changes in his bowling that would confuse batsmen. The difference between his Test and ODI performance also suggests that batsmen are much more careful against him, since in ODIs, they are forced to take risks, like it or not.

The best comparison we can make to Ajantha Mendis is Mike Hussey, who had a great start to his career, but subsequently slumped badly. Even though Hussey still maintains a 50+ average, he is no longer that immovable force he was at his career start. In fact, it is surprising that he hasn’t been dropped, something that could yet happen if Australia lose the Ashes and Hussey doesn’t hit a century or two.

I don’t think Mendis is going away entirely. It is difficult to see Herath continuing his success especially after Murali’s return. And Mendis will play a role in ODIs and T20s. But the mystery is gone now and unless he comes up with new tactics, Mendis is no longer the irresistible force!

Homework for the Sri Lankans

Win or lose the current Test against Pakistan, Sri Lankans have a lot to think about for future series.

  1. What will be their spin attack when Murali comes back? Will it be Herath or Mendis? The Lankans left out the out-of-form Mendis, but Herath has gone missing in this Test with 0/76 and 2/113 so far. Herath’s overall Test record is a miserable 48 wickets in 17 Tests at 37.04 and if you leave out his performances in the first two Tests of this series, it would be much worse. Mendis, of course, has been horrible with his 6 wickets against Pakistan coming at an average of 65.83. From the mystery spinner to the missing spinner, it is quite a drop for him.

  2. Sri Lanka did not cross 300 in any of their innings in this series. The batsmen were shielded by the bowlers who saved them each time Pakistan threatened to win a Test. As usual, Sangakkara and Jayawardene have been among the top run-makers. Sri Lanka cannot continue to keep relying on just two batsmen to produce the goods against the stronger Test teams.

  3. It was a nice gesture to give Vaas a final match, but it will probably cost them the Test and an opportunity to make a strong statement by a 3-0 series victory. The Sri Lanka selectors have to be tougher than that. What if the series had been at 1-1? I know this is not going to happen, but at some point in the past, they should have had a talk with Vaas and told him he was no longer going to play a part in international Test cricket.

  4. Sri Lanka should not fool themselves with the final outcome of this series. They were outplayed several times during the Tests and they just about managed to escape when Pakistan let go of its advantage. Against a stronger team like Australia or South Africa, that would be fatal. Worse, they were outplayed at home. I know they have always struggled against Pakistan at home, but they have to worry if it is going to be an ongoing trend.

  5. It is not clear whether the better performances by some Sri Lankan players is an indication of their so-far hidden talent or is a flash in the pan. We already talked about Herath. Now consider Kulaskera with 16 wickets in 3 Tests in this series. Before it, he had only taken 5 wickets in 6 Tests. Thushara 12 wickets in this series after spending 4 years in the wilderness. Paranavitana has done nothing in his career except for those two knocks in the Galle Test. If they can replicate some of their good performances in this series in the future, Sri Lanka will do well. But otherwise, Sri Lanka will continue to have passengers that will break them against the tougher Test nations.

The Sri Lankan Victory

Not much to say about it. Pakistan looked like it would win, then collapsed and the Sri Lankans won in a canter. I guess you cannot complain much since the Sri Lankans looked like winning on Day One before Pakistan pulled it back a bit. I now understand why the Pakistani bloggers didn’t get too over-excited about the first Test loss.

This victory will do wonders for Sri Lanka that they can win games even when their fortunes are looking hopeless. In both the Tests, I had written off Sri Lanka, but they came roaring back. I said that Herath would not repeat his feat and then suddenly he pulls another one out of his hat. Once again, the under-rated players of the Sri Lankan team perform when they need them.

This is a good opportunity for Sri Lanka to build upon its victories and try to sneak up on the Big Three (Australia, South Africa and India). The Sri Lankans have been playing well overseas, not losing any series to the other Test teams, but they have not yet been able to break out and score series victories. They are somewhat in the same situation as India in the 90′s, very strong at home, but weaker abroad. But in defense of Sri Lanka, they are doing well against the other Test teams, just not against the Big Three.

But the series victory should not make Sri Lanka complacent. They could have easily been 0-2 down. They have several non-performing members of their team. In 2 Tests, only one SL batsman’s average has crossed 40. Of course, it has been a bad time for batsmen of both teams, but still. Also, the fact that Mendis has only 5 wickets from two Tests at 43.40 (where Pakistan collapsed) raises a big question mark about Mendis. When Murali comes back, will the Lankans go with more spinners or will they drop Mendis in favor of Herath?

Back to Pakistan. They will be disappointed that they are not leading the series now. But they have given the Lankans a run for their money and hopefully, they will have some good things coming out of this tour.