I am not a huge fan of Australian domination of cricket, as I feel that cricket is boring if one team wins all the time. At the same time, I cannot find myself to agree in any way with the Australian team dropping from #1 to #4 after the recent Ashes defeat. And the rationale is very simple.
Australia have only lost 3 series out of 14 possible bilateral Test series (or 16, if you include Bangladesh). They have won the rest (with no ties) mostly by crushing the opposition. In fact, before the 2007 Perth loss to India, they had equalled the record for consecutive Test victories only to see India break the streak. The numbers are brutally one-sided: 18 wins, 1 draw and only 3 losses at home and 13-6-5 abroad.
No other team even comes close. South Africa have a good overseas report card, but even they have 6 defeats to 9 wins. Australia and South Africa are the only teams to even have a success rate of more than 50% in away series.
Also, Australia’s Ashes loss did not change anything from the previous England tour. Both series ended 2-1 in England’s favor. So why should Australia suddenly fall from the top spot?
Most commentators are treating Sri Lanka’s #2 position as a joke, but there is some justification. At this point, Sri Lanka’s home Test series record is the same as Australia’s: 6 series wins and only 1 series loss (against Australia). The recent victories against Pakistan and New Zealand changed the previous series defeats and draws to series wins.
But the other side of the equation is that Sri Lanka’s away record is still very poor. They do not have a *single* Test series victory except against Bangladesh. The only other team with that kind of record is West Indies. To their credit, Sri Lanka has drawn series against England, West Indies, New Zealand and Pakistan, but the lack of a series victory is a glaring problem.
In one sense, Sri Lanka seems to be at the same position that India were in the 1990′s. India won almost every series (except against South Africa) played at home, but couldn’t win anything abroad for ages, even against the declining Windies. Only in this decade have they started winning abroad. So will Sri Lanka build upon their home success like India did?
If Australia should be at the top and South Africa is second, who should be #3? Should it be Sri Lanka or India? The home success rates for India and Sri Lanka are the same. This is because while India has won only 5 Test series, it has drawn two and lost none (the only team not to have lost a Test series at home).
India’s away record is much better than Sri Lanka’s with 3 wins and 4 losses (which includes the close Australian series) when compared to Sri Lanka’s 4 draws and 3 losses. India look much likely to improve that (in Australia and South Africa) than the Sri Lankan team.
So all things considered, India should be at #3 and Sri Lanka at #4. This may change in the future, but based on present facts, this is what it is.