Update to Surprising Fact of the Day

A few weeks back, I had linked to Cricinfo’s stats article about captaincy records, showing how Dhoni had the best win-loss ratio among captains who have lead their team in at least 25 Tests. Well, after where we stand now (with 3-0) in the series, things have changed a bit. And here we are:

Dhoni 30 matches, 15 w, 6 l, 9 d. W/L ratio = 2.50
Strauss  38 matches, 20 w, 5 l, 13 d, W/L ratio = 4.00

Unless Dhoni wins 12 more matches without additional losses, he will not overtake Steve Waugh. However, he still has a splendid home record (10:1) though the best seems to be Mike Brearley (12:0). I don’t think Strauss’s ratio will stand after a few trips to the sub-continent, but for the moment, it is his run.

In general, the way the series has progressed, it is as if England were the team under-prepared for the first Test, as they only won by 196 runs on the final day. With more of the England team members finding form, what is in store for the last Test? In the 3rd Test, Cook who was missing in action found form and how! I guess the only person remaining is Swann.

Strangely, unlike many commentators, I find myself quite calm at India’s defeat. Many have found excuses and others have found various actions of India to blame. But if you take a step back and look at the big picture, India as a collective unit has been outclassed by England. You can quibble about lack of preparation or Sehwag’s brainless batting, but ultimately the gap between the two teams kept growing as the series went on.

I would relate this to another series played by India, long back in the early 1990s against Australia just before the 1992 World Cup, which India lost 0-4. That Indian team was supposed to be the best batting lineup in the world. It had a lot of superstars too. But in the Test series, the team batting performances were abysmal. There were a few gems (including from Tendulkar and Azharuddin), but time and again, it was the lower order that lent respectability to the scorecard.

Something similar happened on this tour. Everybody knew that India’s bowling was not that great, but we all expected great things from the batsmen. Unfortunately apart from Dravid, there hasn’t been much. We don’t know what the English team’s tactics are, but planned or not, they have been able to target the Indian lineup successfully. And that has made all the difference.

Also, I was very wrong. As always with my predictions about any England series.

Good England Start with Hiccups

At the beginning of the day, England would have been happy with 364/6 at stumps. But considering that they had a close-to-double-century opening partnership, they could have done much better. But most of the wickets were prised out, not thrown away. And Strauss is still there, hopefully to grab a few more runs with the tail to put England with something significant to defend.

There were quite a few surprises:

  1. Collingwood throwing away his wicket. I wouldn’t blame him. He probably spent his full annual quota of concentration in the Cardiff Test.
  2. And gifting it to Clarke. This kind of thing makes you wonder why Ponting did not try him against Anderson and Panesar. Remember his 3 wickets in the penultimate over against India. For some reason, Clarke has the knack of taking wickets when you least expect him to.
  3. England literally hitting Hauritz out of the attack (by hurting his finger). All the more reason why they shouldn’t have allowed another spinner to take a wicket. Apparently, nothing was broken, but I wonder if Hauritz will bowl tomorrow. And if he doesn’t bowl well, will Ponting think it is because of the finger and send him out to pasture.
  4. Broad in the team. He needs to stay with the captain tomorrow and hit something. Nobody expects him to take wickets.
  5. Pietersen. Curiouser and curiouser. No big scores against the enemy yet. What happened to him?
  6. Johnson. 19-2-107-2. Trash bowling except for the wicket-taking balls. Most responsible for England’s good strike rate.
  7. North bowling so many overs. Economical, but shouldn’t Australia be mixing it up a bit?

This is no surprise: Andrew Strauss making another century after reaching his fifty. He now has 14 fifties and 18 hundreds. It is his fourth century this year. Since his last fifty in August 2008, he has made six centuries without falling between 50 and 100. Surprisingly, his highest score is only 177. Now is as good a time to make a double-century as ever.

As for the Australians, I am sure that Johnson will make a strong comeback with his bowling, but if he doesn’t, Australia has a dilemma on its hands. Johnson brings significant strength to the lower batting order, but Australia’s top order is already strong and they are stuck at seeing the England batsmen hang around for too long. England survived 105 overs in both innings and Australia probably lost a chance to win the match when Swann and Anderson made 68 for the ninth wicket. Someone like Stuart Clark would be more than useful.

England Humiliated

The problems of Australia and Sri Lanka seem trivial when compared to what transpired with England today. When West Indies were out for 392 on the 4th morning of the Test, hardly anyone in the world would have imagined that the game would be over in less than three hours, with England bowled out for their third lowest score in a Test innings.

Until England’s innings, there was not much to choose between the two teams. Obviously, England had under-performed against their potential, allowing the West Indies to grab a 76-run lead, but the major damage was caused by the two WI centurians, Gayle and Sarwan. But there are no excuses to the events that happened after that. Taylor bowled the spell of his lifetime. And surprise, surprise! They got there without a significant contribution from Chanderpaul.

This is an incredible mess for England. After the public linen-washing in the Pietersen-Moores flap, the ECB and Strauss, the new captain, would have hoped to turn over a new leaf against an opponent, currently the weakest of the Test-playing nations bar Bangladesh. That was not to be. It will take enormous mental strength from the team to overcome this setback. Echoes of the Adelaide debacle come to mind. Will a demoralized England be even competitive in the remaining Tests? This is going to be the biggest challenge for Strauss.

As for our prediction about the match winner, we seem to have egg on our face, probably a few rotten vegetables too! But models are there to be improved using results. And so, we will come up with an improved model for the upcoming matches.