Good Riddance

Daryl Harper quits the final Test. Once again, see this rating of umpires.

Then there are lies, damned lies and statistics:

The reality of the situation is that Daryl’s statistics show his correct decision percentage in Tests involving India is 96 per cent, which is considerably higher than the international average for top-level umpires.

Yes, if you take a slice of anything, you will find something that is entirely different from the whole. The point is to look at the whole record and see it is good or bad.

How Many Tests Should Teams Play?

This is for David Barry of Pappu’s Plane who wrote on my previous post on T20 vs Test cricket that given my suggestion for reducing Tests in a series based on whitewashes, Australia would play many one-off and two-Test series. So I did some analysis on this and came up with some figures about what it would look like.

If applied to its logical conclusion, Australia would only play one-off Tests against most countries. The problem with one-off Tests is that it doesn’t give room for expansion. A win in a one-off Test is a whitewash by definition. So we need a minimum of two Tests to determine if they can be increased in the future to three. Expansion can be stopped at five Tests. I briefly tinkered with the idea of a minimum of 3 home Tests if the home team is doing the whitewashing, but then decided to keep it consistent.

Thus, a 5-0 series gets changed to 4-Test series, 4-0 to three Tests, 3-0 and below to two Tests. A 1-1 series gets upgraded to a 3-Test series, 2-1 to a four-Test series and a 2-2 to a 4-Test series. I have used the last known series between the two countries as a reference. I am omitting Bangladesh as I feel they should only play one-off Tests.

So here is what we get. The first number is the home Tests against a particular team and the second number is the away Tests.

             AUS   SAF   IND   ENG   PAK   SRL   NZL   WIN   Total
Australia     .    4,4   4,4   4,5   2,2   2,2   2,3   2,3   20,23
S. Africa    4,4    .    4,3   5,4   4,2   2,2   2,3   4,4   25,22
India        4,4   3,4    .    2,3   3,3   3,4   2,3   3,4   20,25
England      5,4   4,5   3,2    .    4,3   3,3   3,4   4,4   26,25
Pakistan     2,2   2,4   3,3   3,4    .    3,2   2,2   3,3   18,20
S. Lanka     2,2   2,2   4,3   3,3   2,3    .    2,3   2,3   17,19
N. Zealand   3,2   3,2   3,2   4,3   2,2   3,2    .    2,2   20,15
W. Indies    3,2   4,4   4,3   4,4   3,3   3,2   2,2    .    23,20

England gets to play the most Tests at home as well as away. New Zealand ends up with the fewest Tests partly because they have been playing short series. Australia end up playing the same number of Tests as West Indies, but they do have long series against the next three countries (SA, India and England).

OK, having gone to all this trouble, let me say that practically, none of this will work because the system can be gamed. If a country is interested in playing more Tests against a country for whatever reason (especially financial), all they have to do is keep the series close and they gain an extra Test. You may see India suddenly playing 5 Tests against every country because the India TV market is so lucrative.

The other problem is that the series margins are not necessarily a good indicator of the performance of the teams in a series. For example, Sri Lanka lost 0-2 in Australia, but the second match showed a great fightback by the Sri Lankans in the final innings. So they did better than the final scoreline indicates. You would practically need a more detailed analysis of the performance of a team.

Ultimately, the whole point is whether the cricket is interesting or not. And that can be measured by attendance, TV ratings and perhaps polls. If the ratings for England taking the Ashes 5-0 (!) is through the roof, who am I to complain? Keep it coming, that is what I would say.

Preserving the Sanctity of Test Matches

Perhaps “sanctity” is too much of hyperbole, but I have always felt that Test matches occupy a stratospheric level in cricket or even in all sport. In what other game do you have matches that are played over 5 days (or in the past for Timeless Tests, for no pre-determined duration). Tests are meant to be the ultimate, true challenge for teams who vie to the best. Test matches are cruel to upstarts. A Test match does not reward a freak performance by an individual player unlike ODI’s and T20′s. A team cannot rejoice because of some stroke of fortune, it must keep its guard up all the time, lest the other team sense an opening and crash through it.

The nature of Test matches means that differences between teams are much more pronounced, and show up in badly one-sided results. The recently-concluded Sri Lanka-Bangladesh tour confirms this in ample measure, if you hadn’t already been convinced by the previous Bangladesh series. There is no meaningful contest here, and the only interest is which players take the opportunity to set some personal milestones, like Dilshan, who just hit a century in each innings.

So, what we get is statistics pollution. We have so many nonsense games that make a mockery of Test records. You have teams cranking up huge scores and bowling the other team for next to nothing, and players making runs and taking wickets by the bucketful. What we have is the same scenario if a Test team plays against a 1st-class team and the records are added to Test annals. 

There is a bigger problem at work here. The ICC wants to expand cricket to more countries. So Test cricket for Bangladesh seems like a wise choice. But when you have a record of 52 losses in 59 Test matches, that is not expanding cricket’s popularity. It condemns Bangladesh to be an under-achieving cricket nation and diminishes its growth. What Bangladesh needs is more close contests and, particularly, more wins.

So what I would suggest is create a 2nd tier of Test matches – a group of 5 to 10 countries that have acquitted themselves reasonably well in the ODI arena. Create a new statistics track for these Test matches, different from 1st class, but not Test level either. Have 3-day Tests to start with, so that mismatches will not result in grotesque batting orgies by one team, as they will have to declare by the 3rd day. The matches can extend to 4 days or 5 days after a year of matches. This will allow Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Kenya, UAE and other nations to play a lot more matches. They can gain greater confidence and prepare themselves for the main Test teams.

Here is the 2nd part: Bangladesh will be out of the regular Test circuit, but it can play one-off new-style Tests against the major Test playing nations. If it succeeds in winning a mini-Test, it earns the right to play 5 regular Tests in the next 24 months. If it draws a mini-Test without the help of the weather, it can play 2 regular Tests. The batting/bowling efforts of the players of the major Test teams will be recorded as part of the mini-Test stats and not the regular Test stats. As the 2nd tier progresses, more teams there can earn the right to play mini-Tests against the top Test teams. If they perform well there, they can earn the right to play regular Tests.

Thus, we keep the regular Tests pristine. We provide more match opportunities for weaker teams, and give them a way to graduate into the bigger leagues. Of course, this is all very unlikely to happen as the ICC is more concerned with money-making and ad-hoc decisions than a structured way to improve the game. We will see.

The Top Teams of 2008

A simple (but naive, as I shall explain) way to find the top-performing teams of 2008 would be to find the success percentage of each team in 2008. Give a point for a win, half a point for a draw and none for a loss and then divide the total by the number of Tests. Here is what you would get:

Team            Won    Draw   Lost     Success %age
South Africa     11       2      2              80%
Sri Lanka         4       0      2              67%
India             6       5      4              57%
England           5       3      4              54%
Australia         5       4      5              50%
New Zealand       4       4      6              43%
West Indies       1       3      5              28%
Bangladesh        0       1      8               6%

Pakistan is missing from the table having played no Tests this year, partly because of their domestic problems. Not many surprises in the table. South Africa had a great year, winning in Australia and England, and drawing in Sri Lanka India. Australia with their defeats against India and South Africa drop to the middle of the table. Sri Lanka has a higher ranking, partly because they didn’t play very many Tests.

Now, let’s see what happens to the chart if we update the statistics by removing all the Tests that Bangladesh played.

Team            Won    Draw   Lost     Success %age
South Africa      7       2      2              73%
Sri Lanka         3       0      2              60%
India             6       5      4              57%
England           5       3      4              54%
Australia         5       4      5              50%
West Indies       1       3      5              28%
New Zealand       1       3      6              25%

Removing those matches makes a tremendous difference. Although South Africa is still comfortable ahead, the other teams are quite close together. New Zealand and West Indies are about equal, a fact re-affirmed by the ultimate stalemate series that they are now playing. Let us eliminate them both and see what we get

Team            Won    Draw   Lost     Success %age
South Africa      5       2      2              67%
Sri Lanka         2       0      1              67%
India             6       5      4              57%
England           1       2      3              33%
Australia         1       3      5              28%

South Africa’s success rate comes down to 67%, which is still remarkable – the only team that they didn’t play in this list against was Sri Lanka. England won the last Test of the dead rubber against SA, but they did have some good moments against India, so let’s call that a wash. Considering that Bangladesh got to play 9 Tests, Sri Lanka being reduced to playing just 3 against a top-tier team (winning 2-1 against India) is pitiful. We don’t have enough data to evaluate them properly. India did well, except in Sri Lanka, and lost an opportunity against England. Australia’s year was terrible. If it weren’t for the controversial Sydney Test win, they would have nothing to show for the entire year.

The top series to watch out for next year are the remaining South Africa-Australia matches (3 of them back in South Africa), the Ashes and perhaps a Sri Lankan tour of Pakistan. Next year would also be a good time for India to turn around its bad fortunes in New Zealand.