This is for David Barry of Pappu’s Plane who wrote on my previous post on T20 vs Test cricket that given my suggestion for reducing Tests in a series based on whitewashes, Australia would play many one-off and two-Test series. So I did some analysis on this and came up with some figures about what it would look like.
If applied to its logical conclusion, Australia would only play one-off Tests against most countries. The problem with one-off Tests is that it doesn’t give room for expansion. A win in a one-off Test is a whitewash by definition. So we need a minimum of two Tests to determine if they can be increased in the future to three. Expansion can be stopped at five Tests. I briefly tinkered with the idea of a minimum of 3 home Tests if the home team is doing the whitewashing, but then decided to keep it consistent.
Thus, a 5-0 series gets changed to 4-Test series, 4-0 to three Tests, 3-0 and below to two Tests. A 1-1 series gets upgraded to a 3-Test series, 2-1 to a four-Test series and a 2-2 to a 4-Test series. I have used the last known series between the two countries as a reference. I am omitting Bangladesh as I feel they should only play one-off Tests.
So here is what we get. The first number is the home Tests against a particular team and the second number is the away Tests.
AUS SAF IND ENG PAK SRL NZL WIN Total
Australia . 4,4 4,4 4,5 2,2 2,2 2,3 2,3 20,23
S. Africa 4,4 . 4,3 5,4 4,2 2,2 2,3 4,4 25,22
India 4,4 3,4 . 2,3 3,3 3,4 2,3 3,4 20,25
England 5,4 4,5 3,2 . 4,3 3,3 3,4 4,4 26,25
Pakistan 2,2 2,4 3,3 3,4 . 3,2 2,2 3,3 18,20
S. Lanka 2,2 2,2 4,3 3,3 2,3 . 2,3 2,3 17,19
N. Zealand 3,2 3,2 3,2 4,3 2,2 3,2 . 2,2 20,15
W. Indies 3,2 4,4 4,3 4,4 3,3 3,2 2,2 . 23,20
England gets to play the most Tests at home as well as away. New Zealand ends up with the fewest Tests partly because they have been playing short series. Australia end up playing the same number of Tests as West Indies, but they do have long series against the next three countries (SA, India and England).
OK, having gone to all this trouble, let me say that practically, none of this will work because the system can be gamed. If a country is interested in playing more Tests against a country for whatever reason (especially financial), all they have to do is keep the series close and they gain an extra Test. You may see India suddenly playing 5 Tests against every country because the India TV market is so lucrative.
The other problem is that the series margins are not necessarily a good indicator of the performance of the teams in a series. For example, Sri Lanka lost 0-2 in Australia, but the second match showed a great fightback by the Sri Lankans in the final innings. So they did better than the final scoreline indicates. You would practically need a more detailed analysis of the performance of a team.
Ultimately, the whole point is whether the cricket is interesting or not. And that can be measured by attendance, TV ratings and perhaps polls. If the ratings for England taking the Ashes 5-0 (!) is through the roof, who am I to complain? Keep it coming, that is what I would say.